As the offseason begins for the Edmonton Oilers, one player that may have played his last game in Oil Country is defenceman Cody Ceci. He was paired primarily with Darnell Nurse during the 2022-23 campaign, and as The Hockey Writers’‘ Rob Couch wrote about in May, that duo should not be a pairing again next season. They made costly mistakes throughout the playoffs that led to crucial goals against.
During Ceci’s first season with the Oilers in 2021-22, he was arguably one of the team’s most steady defencemen. In the lengthy playoff run, his rate of committing turnovers, bad pinches, and plays that led to breakaways was the fewest on Edmonton’s blue line. However, 2022-23 was a different story, as he struggled throughout the season, with Edmonton outshot 681-658 and outscored 58-55 with him on the ice, and those struggles carried into the postseason as well.
However, we later learned Ceci was battling a groin injury all season, which affected his mobility on the ice. Yet, recently The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman made a prediction for the Oilers’ offseason, stating Edmonton would get rid of Ceci and sign right-shot defenceman Scott Mayfield. He noted now that Damon Severson is off the market with his newly signed $50 million deal with a $6.25 million cap hit, that Mayfield is arguably the best defenceman available in free agency, and says the Oilers feel he can earn up to a five-year contract worth $5 million average annual value (AAV) (from “Oilers’ Offseason Options: Comparing Conservative and Aggressive Approaches,” The Athletic, 6/12/23).
Related: Oilers’ 3 Bargain Free Agent Options to Bolster Right Wing
So, if the Oilers signed Mayfield in free agency, Ceci would have to be traded either in a package deal or for draft picks. However, as it stands now, Edmonton only has $5.1 million in cap space to work with and still has to re-sign key players like Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod, meaning they require as much cap flexibility as possible. The question at hand is whether Mayfield, who projects to make $5 million a season, is actually that much of an upgrade to justify paying him $1.75 million more a season than Ceci, who has a $3.25 million cap hit.
Comparing Scott Mayfield and Cody Ceci’s Advanced Analytics
The Hockey Writers’ Blain Potvin provided an analysis of Mayfield and noted there’s a perception that he’s a bottom-pairing defender, but in 2022-23 he was the New York Islanders’ top shutdown defenceman and played significant minutes in a top-four role. Moreover, he has been a main force on the penalty kill over the course of his career. On the other hand, it could be said that he received top-four minutes in 2022-23 due to injuries. On top of that, Islanders’ general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello mentioned if he’s able to re-sign Mayfield, he doesn’t envision him playing in a top-four role in the future (From “Can the Islanders Re-Sign All Their Pending Free Agents? Should They?” The Athletic, 6/08/23). In other words, Lamoriello may not view Mayfield as a true top-four defenceman, which should raise alarm bells for the Oilers.
As mentioned, if Mayfield signed in Edmonton he’d be brought in to replace Ceci, so let’s compare their statistics from the 2022-23 regular season. Both players averaged just over 20 minutes a night, with Mayfield registering a career-high 24 points, while Ceci dropped to just 15 points after reaching his career high (28 points) a year ago. Mayfield had more blocks (168) compared to Ceci (110); however, the Oilers’ defenceman threw more hits (139) compared to the Islander blueliner’s 107.
Additionally, in comparing some advanced analytic categories between the two defencemen, according to Natural Stat Trick, the metrics showed comparable statistics between the two players at even strength:
| High Danger Chances Against Per 60 Minutes | Scoring Chances For Percentage | Expected Goals For Per 60 Minutes | Expected Goals Against Per 60 Minutes | Corsi (CF%) | |
| Cody Ceci | 11.92 | 50.11% | 2.81 | 2.69 | 50.23% |
| Scott Mayfield | 12.11 | 50.2% | 2.61 | 2.59 | 48.95% |
Additionally, one area in which Mayfield excels is on the penalty kill, where he led the Islanders in minutes played (223:49), and they finished with the eighth-best penalty killing (PK) unit in the NHL. Comparatively, Ceci played more shorthanded minutes (233:23) in 2022-23 and Edmonton finished just behind the Islanders with the ninth-best PK unit in the league (75.6%). However, taking a look at the analytics, Ceci performed better in expected goals against per 60 minutes while shorthanded:
| Shorthanded Expected Goals Against Per 60 Minutes | |
| Cody Ceci | 8.65 |
| Scott Mayfield | 9.98 |
Surely, this is merely statistical data and you have to take into account the eye test as well, but a significant statistic that stands out is that according to MoneyPuck, Mayfield was eighth in the league during the regular season in defensive zone giveaways (56), and the player that finished seventh in the NHL in that category would be his potential defence partner if he signed in Edmonton, Darnell Nurse, with 57 defensive zone giveaways. Now, Oilers’ fans have been infuriated in the past with the number of giveaways by Nurse, and it can be argued that that potential pairing could be prone to even more defensive zone turnovers.
Would Oilers Signing Mayfield Around a $5 Million Cap Hit Be Worth It?
If the Oilers pursued Mayfield in free agency, they would aim to strengthen their top-four on the right side of the blue line; however, Mayfield’s advanced analytics are quite similar to Ceci’s. That said, it’s uncertain if he would actually provide a significant upgrade. Also, Edmonton would be taking a big risk in hopes of him being able to play top-four minutes, something he hasn’t done for the majority of his career. Overall, it doesn’t seem like he’d be worth the additional $1.75 million that Edmonton would be spending, and he’d also be looking for term on his contract, which could put a stranglehold on the team in the future.
If the choice is between Mayfield and Ceci, Oilers’ general manager (GM) Ken Holland might stick with what he knows in his current defender to see if he heals up this offseason and finds his form from the 2021-22 campaign. As well, as we saw with goaltender Jack Campbell, players are susceptible to succumbing to the pressure and underperforming in their first year playing with a new team, which presents an additional risk in bringing in Mayfield.
Edmonton is expected to take the next step next season and truly contend for the Cup. So is trading a player they’re familiar with in Ceci, and signing a more expensive Mayfield with the hope of him being a consistent top-four blueliner a gamble they’re willing to take? Still, I feel they do need to upgrade from Ceci and they should look at other right-shot free agents like Radko Gudas who might cost less money, or how about kicking tires on Carolina Hurricanes defenceman Brett Pesce, who might be available this summer?
Do you see Scott Mayfield as a fit for the Oilers? Have your say in the comments below!