Plenty of changes are afoot for the 2023 “Summer of Chevy“. Yet summer begets regular season, so what stones are left unturned prior to the 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets’ upcoming season?
1. What Are the “Vibes” Between Rick Bowness and His Players?
As a refresher, the Jets’ 2022-23 season ended unceremoniously. Following their Game 5 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights, Rick Bowness issued a declaration – his crew had failed to rise to the occasion. As a fan, I took no exception with that assertion. However, Jets players did. They believed the message should have been delivered internally rather than publicly. In terms of strategy, I don’t disagree with either premise.
Blake Wheeler and Kyle Connor were the most vocal about their displeasure. Wheeler took his talents to the New York Rangers which leaves a leadership vacuum that Bowness “Coach Bones” will have to navigate.
A coach’s job is twofold: (a) understand and motivate his players, and (b) construct a game plan best suited for those personnel. The jury is still out on Bowness. The Jets’ hot start was predicated on a change in philosophy, but the result was the same. We shall see how returning players are motivated this season.
2. Can the Jets Solve Their Fourth Line Problem?
I will list here a sample of the Jets’ luminary fourth-line veteran contributors from the past five years: Matthew Hendricks, Sam Gagner, Riley Nash, Zach Sanford, and Mark Letestu.
A cavalcade group of rather forgettable NHL brethren. The truth is, the Jets have never focused on or prioritized the “edges”. Draft and develop stars, and then recycle the tattered remnants of role players or cherry-pick the waiver wire to fill the bottom end of the roster.
The 2018 Jets’ Western Conference Final roster boasted a fourth-line line combination of Adam Lowry, Andrew Copp, and Brandon Tanev/Joel Armia. An impressive group. In contrast, Lowry played more minutes per game than Nikolaj Ehlers last season. The equation is simple, in every NHL situation you want an advantage. If your third and fourth lines play an average of 25 minutes a game (more than one-third) it behooves a team to maximize those minutes. The signings of Axel Jonsson-Fjallby and Morgan Barron suggest the Jets are in for more of the same in 2023-24.
3. With the Additions of Gabriel Vilardi and Alex Iaffalo, Is There a Philosophical “Playing Style” Change Afoot?
Gabriel Vilardi and Alex Iaffalo immediately slot in as the best defensive forwards on the Jets. From a statistical perspective, only Lowry and Nino Niederreiter are close defensively to the team’s new L.A.-based imports. Based on Evolving Hockey’s “Regularized Plus Minus Model” (RAPM) which measures possession metrics on both the offensive and defensive end – Vilardi and Iaffalo rank supreme.
To illustrate, here is a comparison of Iaffalo’s and Pierre-Luc Dubois’s RAPM profiles:
Both Vilardi and Iafallo provide a 200-foot game, a fact that Bowness might seek to maximize. In his most recent stint with the Dallas Stars, he played a very top-heavy scoring line with a defensive-minded philosophy otherwise. We might bear witness to a much more risk-averse hockey strategy, which is the antithesis of the playing styles of Ehlers and Mark Schiefele.
4. Who Will Be the Captain of the Winnipeg Jets?
Prior to any selection, it is important to understand the qualities of a good “captain”. While there is no unanimously venerated way to lead, there are qualities and traits that are conducive to success in the role. They are, in no particular order: (i) production/skill of the player; (ii) effort (iii) humility; (iv) malleability; and (v) gravitas. Is this list exhaustive and steeped in a deep knowledge of sports psychology? No. Am I confident it represents prevailing wisdom? Sure.
Related: Jets 2022-23 Report Cards: Nikolaj Ehers
The answer based on the foregoing is Josh Morrisey. He fills all the above criteria. With the contract uncertainty of Scheifele and the relative second-banana role of Lowry, he is the obvious choice.
5. Can Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers Be Foundational Roster Pieces?
Both are talented forwards, yet both are tagged with being “injury prone”. Ehlers has played 523 of a possible 656 games in his NHL career. That’s an 80 percent playing rate. Perfetti has been injured in each of his first two seasons as an NHL player. Both are smaller, non-physical players.
Science has weighed in, and unfortunately, there is no clear distinction on “injury prone”. Some view it as directly DNA- related, and others view it as happenstance. Regardless, you can’t make an omelet without breaking some eggs (unless you are a vegan). Their availability will be a key component to the Jets’ success moving forward and will determine whether they are a soufflé or scrambled eggs.
6. Can Gabriel Vilardi Stay Healthy?
Vilardi’s talent has never been in question. His health has. A back problem plagued his early career, and he only broke out last season. He enters 2023-24 healthy, but his health will be a question, which is why I think both sides opted for a two-year deal.
Where will Vilardi fit into the Jets roster? I would like him to slot in with Perfetti and Ehlers, leaving a Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Niederreiter combination as the other top-six line.
7. What Is Happening With Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck?
Sigh. This is a complete unknown at this stage, but I defer to my esteemed colleague.
8. Are the Winnipeg Jets Set Up for Success on the Defensive End?
The Jets were the worst team that made the playoffs at defending zone entries last season:
The Jets also were second worst in giveaways in the defensive end to their opponent. While there were significant improvements in other defensive metrics, there are still improvements to be made. They enter the season with the exact same defensive core. You do the math.
9. Will Any Prospects Enter the Equation This Season?
Unfortunately no. The closest forward prospect would be Rutger McGroarty and from the defensive perspective – Declan Chisholm. If the Jets are truly ascribing to a win-now philosophy, neither will enter the equation.
10. What Will Winnipeg Jets Season Ticket Sales Look Like?
“Forever Winnipeg” was not well received. I don’t believe browbeating a beleaguered fanbase is a great marketing strategy. However, desperate times often called for desperate measures and I believe True North Entertainment took a litmus test, and the results were acidic. As a loyal Jets fan, I am excited about this season, and I am looking forward to it. Questions be dammed, let’s play some hockey.