Scouting is not an exact science and hindsight can be hilarious at times.
The draft year offers a ton of time for development and so much can change from September to June.
Still, it’s both fun and educational to look back — to laugh and learn.
After publishing my preseason rankings for the 2020 NHL draft — my top 124 following the Hlinka Gretzky Cup — I decided to take a look back on my preseason rankings from 2018 and 2019.
I wanted to see how those rankings held up come draft day. For better or worse.
RELATED: Revisiting Preseason Rankings for 2019 NHL Draft
Starting with 2018, which was the first year my rankings were publicly available — my annual mock drafts date back to 2012, but I published my rankings for the first time on Sept. 16, 2017. That was a preseason top 100 for 2018 and it looked like this.
NOTE: Listed next to each player is their actual draft position, with the variation from my preseason rankings in parenthesis. UD is short for undrafted and NR for not ranked.
First Round
1) Rasmus Dahlin — 1 (=)
2) Andrei Svechnikov — 2 (=)
3) Adam Boqvist — 8 (-5)
4) Brady Tkachuk — 4 (=)
5) Filip Zadina — 6 (-1)
6) Joe Veleno — 30 (-24)
7) Quinn Hughes — 7 (=)
8) Ryan Merkley — 21 (-13)
9) Ty Smith — 17 (-8)
10) Rasmus Kupari — 20 (-10)
11) Jesperi Kotkaniemi — 3 (+8)
12) Bode Wilde — 41 (-29)
13) Ryan McLeod — 40 (-27)
14) Barrett Hayton — 5 (+9)
15) Jared McIsaac — 36 (-21)
16) Oliver Wahlstrom — 11 (+5)
17) Joel Farabee — 14 (+3)
18) Alexander Khovanov — 86 (-68)
19) Vitali Kravtsov — 9 (+10)
20) Jett Woo — 37 (-17)
21) Calen Addison — 53 (-32)
22) Evan Bouchard — 10 (+12)
23) Jakub Lauko — 77 (-54)
24) Isac Lundestrom — 23 (+1)
25) Jack McBain — 63 (-38)
26) Luka Burzan — UD (2019, 171)
27) Akil Thomas — 51 (-24)
28) Benoit-Olivier Groulx — 54 (-26)
29) Dmitry Zavgorodniy — 198 (-169)
30) Samuel Fagemo — UD (2019, 50)
31) Mathias-Emilio Pettersen — 167 (-136)
Second Round
32) Jesse Ylonen — 35 (-3)
33) Nando Eggenberger — UD
34) Mattias Samuelsson — 32 (+2)
35) K’Andre Miller — 22 (+13)
36) Jakub Skarek — 72 (-36)
37) Milos Roman — 122 (-85)
38) Anderson MacDonald — UD
39) Ty Dellandrea — 13 (+26)
40) Libor Zabransky — UD
41) Xavier Bouchard — 185 (-144)
42) Kevin Bahl — 55 (-13)
43) Giovanni Vallati — 153 (-110)
44) Vladislav Kotkov — UD (signed by San Jose)
45) Grigori Denisenko — 15 (+30)
46) Philip Kurashev — 120 (-74)
47) Jake Wise — 69 (-22)
48) Jan Jenik — 65 (-17)
49) Pavel Rotenberg — UD
50) Jonathan Tychonick — 48 (+2)
51) Alexander Alexeyev — 31 (+20)
52) Filip Hallander — 58 (-6)
53) Jacob Olofsson — 56 (-3)
54) Gilian Kohler — UD
55) Dominik Bokk — 25 (+30)
56) Olivier Rodrigue — 62 (-6)
57) Lukas Wernblom — UD
58) Jonatan Berggren — 33 (+25)
59) Allan McShane — 97 (-38)
60) Liam Foudy — 18 (+42)
61) Johnny Gruden — 95 (-34)
62) Carl Stankowski — UD
Third Round
63) Alexis Gravel — 162 (-99)
64) Jacob Ingham — 175 (-111)
65) Filip Johansson — 24 (+41)
66) Egor Sokolov — UD
67) Kirill Nizhnikov — UD
68) Samuel Salonen — UD
69) Jake Tortora — UD
70) Jack Drury — 42 (+28)
71) David Levin — UD
72) Gabriel Fortier — 59 (+13)
73) Adam Liska — UD
74) Noah Dobson — 12 (+62)
75) Nico Gross — 101 (-26)
76) Blade Jenkins — 134 (-58)
77) Jake Gricius — UD
78) Filip Kral — 149 (-71)
79) Rasmus Sandin — 29 (+50)
80) Riley Sutter — 93 (-13)
81) Riley Stotts — 83 (-2)
82) Carson Focht — UD (2019, 133)
83) Keegan Karki — UD
84) Justus Annunen — 64 (+20)
85) Toni Utunen — 130 (-45)
86) Krystof Hrabik — UD
87) Martin Kaut — 16 (+71)
88) Oliver True — UD
89) Samuel Bitten — UD
90) Eli Zummack — UD
91) Liam Kindree — UD
92) Brodi Stuart — UD
93) Chase Wouters — UD
Honourable Mentions
94) Ivan Muranov — UD
95) Kyle Topping — UD
96) Olof Lindbom — 39 (+57)
97) Jacob Semik — UD
98) Sean Comrie — UD
99) Dawson Barteaux — 168 (-69)
100) Jack Perbix — 116 (-16)
Reviewing Rankings
The Good
Perhaps it was beginner’s luck, but my preseason rankings for 2018 were quite impressive.
For starters, my top seven featured six of the top eight picks with four of them already ranked exactly where they went. Those being Dahlin, Svechnikov, Tkachuk and Hughes.
The two prospects from my preseason top seven that weren’t selected in the top eight were Veleno and Merkley, two of that draft’s biggest fallers. And for the record, my final rankings for 2018 had those two dropping out of my top 10 with Veleno at 12 and Merkley at 16, albeit still too high.
Further, 17 of my preseason first-rounders were selected in the top 31. That is 55 per cent. And, yes, that is good when that many stay in the top 31 from September to June.
Of the 14 misses, Wilde, McLeod, McIsaac, Woo, Addison and Thomas were still considered first-rounders by several scouts in their final rankings for 2018. So I really only had eight glaring misses in my preseason top 31: Khovanov, Lauko, McBain, Burzan, Groulx, Zavgorodniy, Fagemo and Pettersen. I’m still high on Lauko, who fell to the third round but seems to be outperforming that draft spot. As are Zavgorodniy and Pettersen, who could both prove to be later-round steals. Time will tell on those three.
Perhaps my biggest successes from that preseason top 31 were the two kids that went undrafted in 2018: Burzan and Fagemo. Both had “bad” draft years but were selected as overagers in 2019, which goes to show the talent I saw back in September 2017 was real.
Two more of the undrafted prospects from these preseason rankings are looking like lesser successes in Focht, who was also selected as an overager in 2019, and Kotkov, who impressed immediately after getting passed over in signing with San Jose from their summer development camp in 2018.
The Bad
My biggest misses from the preseason rankings are pretty obvious — Dobson, Sandin, Kaut and Denisenko — but they were also some of the biggest risers over the course of the draft year. As evidenced by my final rankings, which had them all in the top 31: Dobson (8), Kaut (19), Denisenko (22) and Sandin (25). I even correctly mocked Sandin to Toronto in the first round. So I’ll take the good with the bad there.
In total, 24 players from my preseason top 100 were selected higher in the 2018 draft. Here are 10 of the other double-digit risers that were taken in the top 40, with my final ranking for them: Evan Bouchard (10), Kravtsov (14), K’Andre Miller (18), Berggren (20), Bokk (21), Dellandrea (30), Alexeyev (33), Foudy (36), Filip Johansson (54) and Lindbom (NR). Those final rankings were much closer to reality, with the exception of the latter two. I’m not sure how I had Lindbom became an omission from my final rankings after starting the season in my top 100 and going on to get selected in the top 40. Goalies are voodoo, right?
As for the fallers, 42 players from my preseason top 100 were selected lower in the 2018 draft. That includes the aforementioned Veleno and Merkley. Here are 10 of the other double-digit fallers, with my final ranking for them: Wilde (17), Kupari (23), McIsaac (28), Thomas (29), McLeod (37), Lauko (40), Addison (44), Woo (45), Groulx (64) and Skarek (71). As was the case with the risers, those final rankings look a lot better. Again, goalies are voodoo with regards to Skarek.
And here are 12 more fallers that stayed within the top 100 for my final rankings: Wise (31), Zavgorodniy (58), Khovanov (59), Kurashev (60), McBain (61), Roman (66), Jenik (72), McShane (65), Utunen (79), Gruden (89), Jenkins (84) and Kral (93). For the most part, those final rankings were also more accurate in terms of their draft position.
Interestingly, a number of my preseason top 100 prospects did not appear in my final rankings for 2018. Among those not ranked in my final top 100 but still drafted: Pettersen, Gravel, Barteaux, Xavier Bouchard and Vallati. However, none of them were drafted in the top 100, so that isn’t necessarily a negative reflection on me or my preseason top 100 since they all proved to be fallers.
The Ugly
A total of 30 prospects from my preseason top 100 went undrafted in 2018 — yes, 30 per cent of them, which is pretty bad.
As mentioned, three of them wound up getting drafted as overagers in 2019 and a fourth signed as a free agent within a month of getting overlooked. But that still leaves 26 undrafted, unsigned prospects from my preseason top 100 for 2018. That isn’t good any way you look at it.
Where it really gets ugly for me is in the
Second Round
33) Nando Eggenberger
38) Anderson MacDonald
40) Libor Zabransky
49) Pavel Rotenberg
54) Gilian Kohler
57) Lukas Wernblom
62) Carl Stankowski
Third Round
66) Egor Sokolov
67) Kirill Nizhnikov
68) Samuel Salonen
69) Jake Tortora
71) David Levin
73) Adam Liska
77) Jake Gricius
83) Keegan Karki
86) Krystof Hrabik
88) Oliver True
89) Samuel Bitten
90) Eli Zummack
91) Liam Kindree
92) Brodi Stuart
93) Chase Wouters
Honourable Mentions
94) Ivan Muranov
95) Kyle Topping
97) Jacob Semik
98) Sean Comrie
Only two of those 26 prospects remained in my final top 100 for 2018: Wouters (87) and Tortora (94). The other 24 had fallen off my list.
Bust is a strong word considering most those kids are still teenagers heading into this season and the majority of them took a decent step last season despite not getting drafted again in 2019 as overagers.
Truth be told, I still have some level of hope for upwards of 20 of those 26. MacDonald, Rotenberg, Kohler, True, Bitten and Semik are the only ones that I’m willing to write off right now. True and Bitten both have older brothers having success in the AHL — Alex True and Will Bitten — but I don’t foresee the younger siblings amounting to much. MacDonald was once a hyped prospect — considered a first-rounder or even a top-10 talent for his draft class in his younger years — but he’s struggled with mental health after failing to live up to those expectations. Rotenberg, Kohler and Semik just don’t seem to be progressing.
Stankowski is a smaller goalie that has struggled with injuries and illness. Karki is a huge goalie making the move to WHL Everett but his numbers have left a lot to be desired. Muranov made Russia’s world-junior team as an undrafted forward, but his stat-lines weren’t very promising overall. Hope is fading for those three.
Outside of those nine, though, I still think there could be some NHL players among the other 17. Hrabik and Liska took big strides and could have been drafted in 2019 — dare I say should have been drafted? I’m excited to see what Zabransky and Comrie can do in the WHL as 19 year olds with Saskatoon and Kelowna, respectively. Kindree could have a breakout season for Memorial Cup host Kelowna too, and Topping will be one of the leaders on that team again. I’m still a big fan of the little guys Tortora and Zummack as well. Not all hope is lost for them.
Lastly, I should share the 44 players drafted within the top 100 in 2018 that didn’t appear in my preseason rankings. However, eight of them were overagers and I typically don’t include overagers in my rankings until the second half of the season — keeping my focus on the first-time eligibles for the first half — thus those eight wouldn’t have appeared in my preseason top 100 even if I liked them that high.
My final rankings did include overagers for 2018 and of those 44 omissions from my preseason top 100, the following 28 were included in my final top 100, with only 16 not ranked in the end:
First Round
19) Jay O’Brien — 50
26) Jacob Bernard-Docker — 46
27) Nic Beaudin — 43
28) Nils Lundkvist — 26
Second Round
34) Serron Noel — 35
38) Alexander Romanov — NR
43) Ruslan Iskhakov — 97
44) Albin Eriksson — 98
45) Scott Perunovich (overager) — 80
46) Martin Fehervary — 67
47) Kody Clark — NR
49) Kirill Marchenko — 52
50) Adam Ginning — 55
52) Sean Durzi (overager) — NR
57) Axel Andersson — NR
60) David Gustafsson — 38
61) Ivan Morozov — 53
Third Round
66) Cam Hillis — 62
67) Alec Regula — 70
68) Tyler Madden — 90
70) Jakob Ragnarsson — NR
71) Jordan Harris — 92
73) Ty Emberson — 57
74) Niklas Nordgren — 39
75) Oskar Back — 82
76) Semyon Der-Arguchintsev — 95
78) Sampo Ranta — 73
79) Blake McLaughlin — 47
80) Marcus Karlberg — NR
81) Seth Barton (overager) — NR
82) Bulat Shafigullin — 77
84) Jesper Eliasson — NR
85) Lukas Dostal — 99
87) Linus Karlsson — NR
88) Joey Keane (overager) — NR
89) Logan Hutsko (overager) — NR
90) Dmitri Semykin — NR
91) Nathan Smith (overager) — NR
92) Connor Dewar (overager) — NR
Fourth Round
94) Matej Pekar — 49
96) Luke Henman — NR
98) Ryan O’Reilly — 83
99) Slava Demin — 69
100) Adam Mascherin (overager) — NR
I was still low on a lot of them, but at least they were on my list when it came to the final rankings.
The most regrettable miss is Romanov, who looks like a real player in the making for Montreal after standing out at the World Juniors. Durzi was really good in the OHL playoffs and Los Angeles could wind up winning that Jake Muzzin trade if he pans out as a pro.
Barton and Dewar were frustrating misses since they were playing in my backyard — in the BCHL and WHL, respectively — but I did have them getting selected in my 2018 mock, albeit both as seventh-rounders when they went in the third round. I had Barton at 195 and Dewar at 201. Barton was taken at 81 and Dewar at 92.
As bad as that discrepancy looks, I’m still considering it a small victory of sorts in taking a glass half full outlook on these 2018 results.
For that draft year, I published five rankings of my top 100 prospects: preseason (Sept. 16), midseason (Feb. 5), following regular season (March 29), following under-18 tournament (May 1), and final following the combine (June 4).