2020 NHL Draft: First Round Mock Scenarios 2.1

Mocking the entire first round is never easy but seems harder than usual this year.

The shortened season that ended abruptly poses unique challenges for finalizing rankings, but there was already a large tier — essentially from 20 to 50 — that was proving difficult in determining which prospects were worthy of the top 31. Those evaluations are still ongoing and NHL teams will surely have significant variance with their lists. Thus every mock can and will be a bit different, if not entirely different.

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This series, which started with top 10 scenarios, has expanded to the top 31 — to first round scenarios for the 2020 NHL Draft — by extending those 10 initial mocks, using the same results for the top 10 from running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery.

The debut edition elaborated on all the details and I’ve explained the rationale for the remainder of the draft order. I’ll be providing analysis for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in some surprises — along with additional insight — but might shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published weekly (or as frequently as possible).

Without further ado, here is a recap of the top 10 from mock 2.0 followed by selections 11-31 for mock 2.1:

1) Ottawa Senators — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

2) Los Angeles Kings — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

3) Detroit Red Wings — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

4) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

5) Anaheim Ducks — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

6) New Jersey Devils — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

7) Buffalo Sabres — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

8) Montreal Canadiens — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

11) Minnesota Wild — Dylan Holloway (LC, Canada, Wisconsin NCAA)

ANALYSIS: Minnesota takes Holloway as Bill Guerin continues to put his stamp on the Wild’s future roster. Guerin was a college player and a power forward, so perhaps he’ll see shades of himself in Holloway, who would fit in well with the likes of Luke Kunin, Jordan Greenway and Joel Eriksson Ek in making the Wild a tough team to play against going forward. Ryan Donato, Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno also factor into that identity in the present. Eric Staal and Mikko Koivu are nearing the end of their careers — and their tenures in Minnesota — so Holloway would fill a void down the middle. And it’s not like the Wild are lacking in skilled forwards with Kevin Fiala, Matthew Boldy, Adam Beckman, Vladislav Firstov, Alexander Khovanov and hopefully Kirill Kaprizov, among others. It is a nice mix and Holloway would certainly be a solid addition.

12) Winnipeg Jets — Braden Schneider (RD, Canada, Brandon WHL)

ANALYSIS: Winnipeg takes Schneider to some surprise, with Jake Sanderson now considered the consensus second-best defenceman in this year’s draft behind Jamie Drysdale. So taking Schneider ahead of Sanderson would raise eyebrows, but the Jets have always done well drafting from the WHL and will have seen plenty of Schneider developing down the road in Brandon. Winnipeg also has more of a need on right defence, with Schneider joining Neal Pionk and Tucker Poolman on that side whereas the left would be quite crowded for Sanderson alongside Josh Morrissey and 2019 first-rounder Ville Heinola, plus Sami Niku, Dylan Samberg, Logan Stanley, Declan Chisholm and Giovanni Vallati. For those who prefer Sanderson over Schneider for the Jets, that scenario already played out in mock 1.1.

13) New York Rangers — Rodion Amirov (LW, Russia, Salavat Yulaev Ufa KHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers have a good thing going with their Russians — Artemi Panarin and Pavel Buchnevich as forwards on the roster, with Vitali Kravtsov on the way, not to mention the goaltending tandem of Igor Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev — so Amirov would be entering a comfortable environment. The Rangers reached a little for Kravtsov at ninth overall in 2018 and this might be seen as a slight stretch too, but Amirov was a standout at last year’s under-18 worlds and has more than enough talent to warrant a top-15 pick.

14) Florida Panthers — Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)

ANALYSIS: Florida would be surprised to land Sanderson here, making this selection a no-brainer — especially since the Panthers could be targeting defence. Florida has a strong blue line in the present and some decent prospects on the way — including Max Gildon, Vladislav Kolyachonok and Johnny Ludvig on the left side — but Sanderson has the potential to be a stud. He could become Aaron Ekblad’s long-term partner, forming a pairing that rivals Zach Werenski and Seth Jones in Columbus.

15) Columbus Blue Jackets — Noel Gunler (RW/LW, Sweden, Lulea SHL)

ANALYSIS: Columbus needs to score more goals and that is what Gunler does best. He is one of the best snipers in this draft class and could become a go-to guy for the Blue Jackets. Gunler could be a bigger, better version of Oliver Bjorkstrand and would be joining fellow Swedish forwards Gustav Nyquist, Alexander Wennberg, Emil Bemstrom and Kevin Stenlund in Columbus. Nyquist could mentor Gunler to alleviate any character concerns and help him transition to North America while understanding John Tortorella’s demanding system.

16) Calgary Flames — Kaiden Guhle (LD, Canada, Prince Albert WHL)

ANALYSIS: Calgary takes an Alberta boy — albeit from Edmonton — in Guhle, who was the first overall pick in the 2017 WHL bantam draft and has developed into a two-way force. Mark Giordano isn’t getting any younger and Guhle could take his place in time. The Flames would be shoring up the future of their left side with this selection, adding Guhle to fellow first-round picks Noah Hanifin and Juuso Valimaki. That would be a formidable trio, especially for a team that gets flack over a lack of defence prospects. The right side is more of a pressing need — being quite bare beyond Rasmus Andersson — so Schneider would have been another WHL defender of interest for Calgary.

17) Vancouver Canucks — Justin Barron (RD, Canada, Halifax QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Vancouver takes Barron to address the right side of their defence, which has Brogan Rafferty appearing promising and Jett Woo turning pro next season. The left side will be a strength for the Canucks with Quinn Hughes and Olli Juolevi as recent first-rounders, but Barron is another dynamic defender who had drawn favourable comparisons to Ryan Ellis and Thomas Chabot heading into his draft year, which was derailed by a blood clot after a rough start on a bad team. That has caused Barron’s stock to fall, but his playing style could also remind Canucks fans of fellow Maritimer and first-rounder Luc Bourdon (RIP).

18) Nashville Predators — Connor Zary (LC, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

ANALYSIS: Nashville takes Zary for his offensive abilities as well as his intangibles. He’s got gamesmanship and leadership as a clutch performer capable of delivering on the biggest stages. Zary would complement Nashville’s current and future forward core, fitting into their by committee offence. He isn’t necessarily a gamebreaker but leads by example with a reputation for rising to the occasion. Zary would be a consistent contributor in a middle-six role — similar to Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene and Kyle Turris in terms of his impact for the Predators.

19) Carolina Hurricanes (Toronto) — Jan Mysak (LW, Czech Republic, Hamilton OHL)

ANALYSIS: Carolina takes Mysak as a wingman for fellow Czech Martin Necas. They could become quite the dynamic duo for the Hurricanes, whose only other Czech on the roster and in the system is goaltender Petr Mrazek. Carolina has targeted their share of Finns in recent years — and could take another here, perhaps Roni Hirvonen or Kasper Simontaival — but Mysak is more likely to go in this range as an attacking forward and underrated finisher. He has great offensive instincts and can be a real driver, which makes Mysak attractive to Carolina’s analytically-inclined staff.

20) Edmonton Oilers — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: Edmonton would be ecstatic to take Quinn as the obvious choice here, adding another scoring winger who could be NHL ready sooner than later. Quinn is one of the older prospects in this draft class, but the Oilers would see that maturity as a positive whereas other teams might pass on him in favour of raw talents with more upside. Quinn deserves to go higher based on his draft year, leading all CHL draft-eligibles in goals with 52 — second most in the entire CHL, behind only Nick Robertson’s 55. Quinn can score in a variety of ways and Edmonton needs more finishers up front to take the weight off Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Quinn could be a nice complement for either of them and a perfect fit for the Oilers as a faller in this scenario.

21) Ottawa Senators (N.Y. Islanders) — Dawson Mercer (RW, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa could swing for the fences here — with their third pick of the first round — but decides to take the best player available in Mercer. BPA is never a bad approach and this selection would cap off a fantastic first round for the Senators, who previously won the Lafreniere sweepstakes and also took Drysdale to emerge with the draft’s top forward and top defenceman. Mercer would be a bonus, landing in their lap as a presumed top-20 pick. But he is an older prospect who could slide since his production slipped following the trade to Chicoutimi. Mercer is a versatile forward — as evidenced at the World Juniors, playing up and down the depth chart for Canada — but his upside has come into question. He is still a relatively safe pick with a high floor in scout speak — sure to be a good pro as a polished prospect who would project as a secondary scorer for the Senators. This would also give Lafreniere a fellow QMJHLer for familiarity in joining the organization, with Mercer and another QMJHL alum Drake Batherson becoming a 1-2 punch on right wing for Ottawa.

22) Dallas Stars — Joni Jurmo (LD, Finland, Jokerit U20)

ANALYSIS: Dallas might be planning to take a forward in this year’s first round, but Jurmo is a fast-rising Finnish defender with a ton of potential. The Stars could ice an all-Finnish left side in the future, with Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell already staples on the roster. However, there is also 2019 first-rounder Thomas Harley, who nearly made the Stars out of camp this season. That is going to be a position of strength, but I have a hunch that Dallas will be higher than most on Jurmo and may take him anyway. He is quite raw and wouldn’t be ready for a few years, so the Stars could slow play Jurmo as a possible replacement for Lindell, who is locked up for five more seasons but could be expendable between now and then as he starts to slow down. Heiskanen, Harley and Lindell transitioning into Jurmo would be an ideal situation for the Stars.

23) New York Rangers (Carolina) — Alexander Pashin (RW, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)

ANALYSIS: The Rangers take another Russian winger with the hope that Panarin can take Pashin under his wing and help turn him into a star. Pashin is flying under the radar despite lighting up the Hlinka Gretzky Cup to start the draft year — highlighted by scoring twice in the championship game, including the golden goal. Pashin looked like a young Panarin throughout that tournament — with plenty of similarities in their attacking styles — but his size and the Russian factor seem to be working against him in most mocks and rankings thus far. Pashin has first-round talent and the Rangers could be the team to take a chance on him with their second selection. Pashin is a personal favourite of mine, so I’d be pumped with him and Amirov if I were running the Rangers, but I’m anticipating that fan base won’t be as pleased with my picks.

24) Pittsburgh Penguins — Mavrik Bourque (RC, Canada, Shawinigan QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh envisions Bourque being flanked by 2019 draft picks Samuel Poulin and Nathan Legare on an all-QMJHL line in the future. Hendrix Lapierre is the other option, but the Penguins see Bourque as a better fit without the concussion concerns that are plaguing Lapierre and causing his continued fall in this scenario. Bourque’s ceiling may not be as high, but his stock is trending up thanks to a stellar draft year and he could be full value at this spot. Poulin was probably more of a reach in last year’s first round — at 21st overall — but that pick is looking pretty good in hindsight too.

25) Philadelphia Flyers — Helge Grans (RD, Sweden, Malmo J20)

ANALYSIS: Philadelphia takes a right-handed defenceman again in Grans after getting Schneider in mock 1.1. The Flyers have a very balanced prospect pool with no real needs nor weaknesses. Their defence is stronger on the left side, so a righty makes more sense at that position, but Philadelphia might also see Grans as the best player available here. The Flyers would contemplate Lapierre — who could learn from Claude Giroux and Sean Couturier, with shades of Simon Gagne in his game — but Grans is the safer bet. His floor is similar to Robert Hagg and Adam Ginning as fellow Swedes in the Flyers’ system, but Grans has enough offensive upside to turn into a Mattias Ekholm type. The ceiling is fairly high for Grans.

26) Colorado Avalanche — Hendrix Lapierre (LC, Canada, Chicoutimi QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Colorado halts Lapierre’s fall, adding this high-risk, high-reward prospect to their already loaded pipeline. Joe Sakic is well positioned to take that chance, hoping Lapierre can overcome his concussions and return to the form he flashed at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup that had him labelled a top-10 talent heading into the draft year. Lapierre was unable to build on that momentum — only netting two goals in 19 QMJHL games, with 15 assists for 17 points — before suffering his third concussion in eight months, which kept him sidelined for the remainder of the season. Lapierre has remained upbeat, but he may be waiting longer than expected to hear his name called in the draft as a result. Becoming an Av could be worth the wait, with Colorado poised to be a perennial contender.

27) San Jose Sharks (Tampa Bay) — Jeremie Poirier (LD, Canada, Saint John QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: San Jose continues to prepare for life after Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson by adding Poirier as a future offensive catalyst from the back end. If Poirier and 2018 first-rounder Ryan Merkley pan out, the Sharks could be just as potent on defence for the next decade. Those are pretty big ifs, with Poirier and Merkley both needing refinement to be successful in the NHL despite possessing significant upside. They are boom or bust prospects that will be projects for San Jose, but Doug Wilson would be tempted by Poirier’s high ceiling — much the same as Merkley.

28) Vegas Golden Knights — Seth Jarvis (RW, Canada, Portland WHL)

ANALYSIS: Vegas takes Jarvis without thinking twice, continuing their trend of taking WHL forwards in the first round following Peyton Krebs in 2019 and Cody Glass in 2017. Jarvis is coming from the same junior program as Glass, who was a top-10 pick at sixth overall. Jarvis could be a steal this late, looking every bit as dynamic and dominant as Glass did in Portland — racking up 75 points in 37 games over the second half of his draft year. Kelly McCrimmon will be well aware of Jarvis’ surge — he only had 23 points through 21 games — and the Golden Knights wouldn’t let him fall any further.

29) Washington Capitals — Tyson Foerster (RW, Canada, Barrie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Washington stays in the OHL for this scenario, selecting Foerster after previously taking Jacob Perreault in mock 1.1. The Capitals have to be happy with 2019 first-rounder Connor McMichael from the same league and go back there to find him a future wingman. Foerster is a scorer first and foremost, but his all-around game is impressive and he thrived as a go-to guy for Barrie following his MVP performance at the CHL Top Prospects Game, which thrust Foerster into first-round consideration. Washington would be thrilled to take him here.

30) St. Louis Blues — Jacob Perreault (RW/RC, Canada/USA, Sarnia OHL)

ANALYSIS: St. Louis takes Perreault, seeing similarities to Jordan Kyrou as another skilled winger from the OHL. Perreault turned it up a notch down the stretch, which won’t go unnoticed by the Armstrongs — Doug and Bill (not brothers, nor relatives) — who always have a good handle on the OHL. In addition to Kyrou, they took Robert Thomas and former Blue Robby Fabbri from that league. St. Louis hasn’t taken a defenceman in the first round since 2012, so that may or may not be a priority for 2020, but Perreault would be more of a typical pick for the Blues.

31) Anaheim Ducks (Boston) — William Wallinder (LD, Sweden, MODO J20)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim is a good bet to take a Swedish defender with their second selection, getting Wallinder to go along with Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Larsson as Swedish first-rounders from years past. The Ducks also acquired a trio of Swedish defencemen at this year’s trade deadline, including second-round prospect Axel Andersson from Boston in the same deal that fetched this pick, plus Christian Djoos and Joel Persson. Anaheim likes their Swedes and Wallinder could be another good one, with his size and skating ability reminding some scouts of Philip Broberg, who went in the top 10 last year. Broberg was more of a standout on international stages — thus his stock was much higher — whereas Wallinder is still a sleeper to some degree, but the Ducks won’t be sleeping on him. Anaheim could also covet Grans if he were still available, while fellow Swedes Emil Andrae and Anton Johannesson warrant mentioning as smaller, more offensive types that might be of interest if both the bigger blueliners are gone.

Recapping Results for Mock 2.1