Welcome to THW’s 2023-24 Hart Trophy tracker. We’ll be using a combination of advanced and traditional stats to determine who’s in the running for the Hart Trophy, just as we have for the Vezina, Calder and other major awards up for grabs. The parameters for the Hart are simple. If you’re one of the best players in the league and are helping lead your team in the standings and into a playoff spot, you’ll get some Hart Trophy love.
It’s been about a month since we first published the Hart Trophy tracker, but not much has changed among the frontrunners. Let’s see where the race stands post-trade deadline.
Artemi Panarin
The New York Rangers got off to a hot start this season and have remained one of the NHL’s best teams, despite a bit of a dropoff around the holidays. They find themselves at the top of the Metropolitan Division thanks to the stellar play of Artemi Panarin, who’s having one of the best seasons of his career.
Panarin has 38 goals and 94 points in 68 games coming out of the trade deadline. He’s topped 30 goals four times in his career, but he’s well on his way to a career-high, as he’s on pace to finish with 45 goals. Panarin has been shooting the puck much more this season, as he already has 241 shots on goal, putting him on pace to finish with 290, which would easily be a career-high, too.
Related: 2023-24 Selke Trophy Tracker: All-Star Break Update
Panarin’s play has been worth a wins above replacement (WAR) of 2.3, ranked 22nd in the NHL, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His expected WAR of 4.6 ranks fourth in the NHL among forwards, so he’s been one of the most valuable players in the NHL. He’s been the Rangers’ most efficient five-on-five scorer by a country mile, and the team has been much better when he’s on the ice compared to when he’s off.
It’s hard to imagine where the Rangers would be without Panarin and Jonathan Quick this season, though Igor Shesterkin does look like Igor Shesterkin again. They’d be a playoff team, but they’d likely be chasing first place instead of holding down the position since the season’s opening game.
Auston Matthews
The original publication of this had David Pastřnák in this spot and Auston Matthews as an honorable mention. While Pastřnák is having an incredible season, it’s hard to discount what Matthews has been doing. Scoring goals at a high level is the hardest thing to do in the NHL, and Matthews is doing it at an elite level. His 55 goals in 65 games put him on pace to finish with 69 goals, meaning 70 is not impossible.
In addition to his goal-scoring, Matthews is on pace for 103 points. His underlying metrics are fantastic, as his play has been worth an expected WAR of 6.1, ranked first in the NHL among forwards. His actual WAR of 3.8 ranks fifth among forwards, so he has been one of the best players in the NHL
The Maple Leafs have a good team, but Matthews has been their driving force this season, especially with some of the goaltending and defensive issues they’ve had. It’ll be interesting to see where voters place him on their Hart ballots. For me, he’s just outside the top three. But if he hits 70 goals, I think he has a very legitimate shot of taking the award from some of the contenders listed in the rest of this article.
Connor McDavid
Just because Connor McDavid had a slow start doesn’t mean you should count him out of the race. Part of the slow start was due to an injury that kept him out for a week or so at the beginning of the season. Even when he returned, it didn’t seem like he was himself for a couple of weeks. But now, McDavid very much looks like the McDavid we all know.
Up to 106 points in 63 games, McDavid would be on pace to finish with 138 points if he were to play in all 82 games this season. His play has been worth a WAR of 4.3, ranked second in the NHL, and it’s likely to climb a bit more over the final four weeks of the regular season.
Offensively, McDavid has been his typical self, averaging 3.35 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, making him one of the most efficient five-on-five scorers in the league. And though some may think he lags defensively, McDavid’s even-strength defense has been worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 1.4. He’s getting it done in all facets of the game.
While I don’t think he’s the frontrunner for the Hart, there’s a strong argument he’s in the top three. And with how well the Oilers have been playing lately, I certainly expect his candidacy to strengthen as the season winds down.
Nikita Kucherov
The Tampa Bay Lightning are not what they were during their Cup runs in the early part of this decade, but they still have high-end talent led by Nikita Kucherov. Nathan MacKinnon and Kucherov sit atop the league in points with 116 and 114 points and have similar stat lines.
Kucherov is on pace for an outrageous 141 points and has been a significant reason why the Lightning have gotten into a more secure playoff position in the Eastern Conference. His play has been worth a WAR of 3.4, and his five-on-five scoring has been elite, as he’s averaging 2.99 points per 60 minutes.
Offensively, not many players have had a better impact than Kucherov, especially at even strength. But even on the power play, as expected, he’s been tearing it up:
It looks like it’ll be a neck-and-neck race between Kucherov and MacKinnon, assuming the two stay healthy for the rest of the season. The Lightning probably would be struggling to compete for a playoff spot without him, even with Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point still scoring at a high clip.
Nathan MacKinnon
There’s no doubt that MacKinnon is still the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy coming out of the trade deadline. As mentioned, his counting totals are identical to Kucherov’s, but his underlying metrics are among the best in the NHL.
MacKinnon’s play has been worth a WAR of 5.1. Think about that. He’s been so good that he’s been worth an additional five wins for the Avalanche, which is ten more points in the standings. That’s a significant impact. He’s averaging an excellent 3.31 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and has been one of the best play drivers in the NHL.
The Avalanche have had issues with forward depth and injuries this season, but MacKinnon has essentially covered them up on his own. That’s how good he’s been. Without him, the Avalanche would not be the team that they are. With how he’s played and the additions the team made at the trade deadline, they’re once again a favorite for the Stanley Cup.
Honorable Mentions
As mentioned, Pastřnák is having an incredible season. If someone wanted to argue he should be in the top five, they’d have a reasonable case. The Boston Bruins would likely be in a world of trouble if he weren’t on their roster since they lack high-end talent up front other than him.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Elias Pettersson, Sam Reinhart, and even Zach Hyman get some Hart Trophy love. Hyman is not just a McDavid merchant. He’s a great player, and his xWAR of 4.6 suggests he’s been one of the most valuable players in the NHL. The same goes for Reinhart, who also has an xWAR of 4.6. That places both players in the top five among forwards league-wide in that metric.
The Hart Trophy is still up for grabs, but the race is getting clearer with only a month left in the regular season. MacKinnon leads the race coming out of the trade deadline. But Kucherov is right there, and I expect McDavid and Matthews to make a push over the final four weeks of the season.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey