The 2023-24 season has put together one of the most exciting Hart Trophy races in recent memory and possibly of all time. Usually, there is a clear favorite or it’s a two-player race with one of them standing out as the one most deserving of the award. This season, four skaters have a strong argument to win the Hart Trophy, and one skater worthy of winning it won’t even be a finalist.
Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and Connor McDavid are the big four. Let’s look at the tale of the tape.
Nikita Kucherov: Has a league-leading 98 points and is carrying the Tampa Bay Lightning, making them a playoff team.
Nathan MacKinnon: His 96 points are second-most in the NHL, and he’s leading the Colorado Avalanche to one of the best records in the Western Conference.
Related: Misunderstood Nikita Kucherov Is the Ultimate Competitor
Auston Matthews: Has a league-leading 52 goals, putting him on pace for a 70-goal season.
Connor McDavid: Aside from leading the league in assists with 68, he’s the best player in the world. Need we say more?
There’s still plenty of time to determine who will win the award. So, let’s look at each skater and their case for the Hart Trophy and what might prevent them from winning it. The stats in this article are as of the Feb. 25 games and are subject to change.
Connor McDavid
2023-24 stats: 53 games played, 21 goals, 68 assists, 21:34 ice time, and 9.2-point shares.
The Case For McDavid
The Hart Trophy is McDavid’s until it isn’t. He’s the best skater in the game, and as long as he keeps playing at an elite level, there’s no reason he shouldn’t win the award. He’s already won three times in his career, including last season after he led the league in both goals (64) and assists (89) for a career-best 153 points, yet the argument can be made that he deserves to win it every season.
The unique season the Edmonton Oilers have put together only further strengthens his argument. The team stumbled out of the gate with a 3-9-1 record, and with a coaching change, where they hired Kris Knoblauch, they’ve become one of the top teams in the Western Conference. If the Oilers finish the season with the best record in the Pacific Division and, more importantly, McDavid ends up leading the league in assists or points, it will be hard for voters to look elsewhere.
The Case Against McDavid
The same thing working in his favor will work against him. Voter fatigue is real, and it hurts McDavid, who has established himself as the best player in the league and is a finalist for the award every season. Still, it often takes a historic season to separate himself from the pack. The problem is voters will look for other skaters putting together a remarkable season, and with a handful of strong candidates, this season will likely be one of them where he is snubbed or simply overlooked.
Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 stats: 59 games played, 34 goals, 62 assists, 23:03 ice time, and 10.4 point shares.
The Case For MacKinnon
The cliche of always being a bridesmaid and never a bride can best describe Mackinnon’s pursuit of the Hart Trophy. In his first 10 seasons in the NHL, he was a finalist three times. He came in second place in 2017-18, losing out to Taylor Hall, then finished as the runner-up in 2019-20, with Leon Draisaitl taking home the award, and then in 2020-21, he finished in third place. This season could be the one where he finally gets over the hump.
MacKinnon has been leading or near the top of the points leaderboard all season. If he ends the season with the league lead, he’ll have his best argument yet for the Hart Trophy. On top of that, it helps that he’s the best player on an Avalanche team that is one of the best in the Western Conference. In previous seasons, the Avalanche had a great roster from the top down, but this time around, there’s a noticeable drop after the core. The 23:03 ice time reflects the role he’s taken this season, and he’s become the key payer in the team’s success. MacKinnon is leading them to the top of the standings, and looking back at this season, his production will go hand-in-hand with the team’s strong season.
The question voters must ask themselves is what they’ll remember or take away from this season. What will stand out from this unique season, and who are the skaters that have defined how we think about the game? A common thought in the NHL is that a team without depth can’t succeed, much less finish near the top of the standings. MacKinnon has proved otherwise, as the Avalanche can win the Central Division with a depleted roster but the best player in the game. This season, MacKinnon is single-handedly making this team one of the best in the league, and that alone makes him worthy of the Hart Trophy.
The Case Against MacKinnon
Leading the league in points almost feels like a must for MacKinnon to win the award. Otherwise, it will just be another great season, but not one to remember and certainly not one where he’s the award winner. In a season where there will be tough competition, the elite skaters must stand out. It also doesn’t help MacKinnon that despite a top-heavy roster, he has Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews as supporting cast. The Avalanche have four of the top 30 skaters in the game, with Makar being a Norris Trophy candidate in his own right, and it prevents their best player from standing out.
Auston Matthews
2023-24 stats: 56 games played, 52 goals, 25 assists, 21:04 ice time, and 11.2 point shares.
The Case For Matthews
When Matthews won the Hart Trophy in 2022, he scored a league-leading 60 goals. He’s on pace to pass that mark by the trade deadline. Most players consider a point-per-game pace as a great season, and the Maple Leafs star scorer is nearly at a goal-per-game pace. For Matthews, it can simply become a race to 70 or even 80 goals. If he reaches that mark, the Hart Trophy might be his for the taking.
Along with the scoring, he’s led the offense and helped the team remain alive in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. The Maple Leafs haven’t been great, with plenty of tough stretches, yet they have the third-best record in the Atlantic Division. A seven-game winning streak helps the cause, but Matthews’ powering the offense has kept the team from falling out of contention all season. Matthews is one of the few skaters in the league who can will his team to victories and take over games, and with his goal-scoring pace standing out, he looks ready to win the Hart Trophy for the second time in three years.
The Case Against Matthews
Two things can be held against Matthews by the end of the season. The Maple Leafs are surging to the top of the standings at the moment, but overall, this season hasn’t been a great one for them. A common criticism of the voters is how they’ll often punish great players on bad or even average teams, but if the Maple Leafs are a wild-card team, it will be easy to argue against Matthews. He’ll be regarded as a great player, just not one who can lead his team to victories.
The other issue is the top-six and supporting cast that helps him. Mitch Marner is one of the best facilitators in the game with 48 assists, and William Nylander has become a star in his own right with 31 goals and 44 assists. The best player on the team is Matthews, but he’s receiving a lot of help, and even with a great scoring season, his numbers will be taken with a grain of salt.
Nikita Kucherov
2023-24 stats: 58 games played, 37 goals, 63 assists, 21:56 ice time, and 10.7 point shares.
The Case For Kucherov
Kucherov’s led the league in points throughout the season and what’s stood out is that he’s taken over games in multiple ways. He’s won with speed by slowing games down and possessing the puck into the offensive zone with his quick shot and by setting up other skaters with quick passes, helping make his linemates better. He’s been neck and neck with MacKinnon all season for the point lead. Still, it must be noted that in the previous meeting between the Avalanche and the Lightning, Kucherov outplayed him, scoring two goals and an assist in the 6-3 victory.
What makes this season particularly impressive is that Kucherov has carried the Lightning in a season where the rest of the roster has struggled. He’s outplaying the other stars on the Lightning by a significant margin as he’s closing in on 100 points, while Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Victor Hedman all have yet to eclipse the 60-point mark. Additionally, the depth is non-existent, with the bottom six struggling and the defensive unit, outside of Hedman, being a mess. Kucherov is willing the Lightning to a successful season and he could be the first winger to win the award since the 2018-19 season when he took home the award as well.
The Case Against Kucherov
Like MacKinnon, Kucherov must lead the league in points to end up a finalist. While he’s carried more weight than MacKinnon or any of the other frontrunners, his style of play and overall role will also be held against him. Kucherov plays on the wing and doesn’t impact the game the same way as the other elite skaters as a result. He’s not asked to win face-offs, step up as a two-way player in the center of the ice, or kill penalties.
It’s also worth noting how many of Kucherov’s points have come while the Lightning have been on the man advantage. While MacKinnon has 34 points on the play play, Kucherov has 40. It’s helped make his point totals look better, and at the end of the day, the scoring inflation could come back to haunt him.
The Significance of a Hart Trophy Chase
Some of the most memorable seasons in sports involve milestones or award chases. One of the greatest seasons in Major League Baseball (MLB) history was 1961 when both Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris were not only trying to win the MVP award but best the single-season home run record. The two teammates battled it out all season along and at the end of the Maris set the record with 61 home runs, allowing him to win the MVP award. The same thing happened in 1998 with Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire chasing the record. The summer of 1998 is regarded as one of the best in baseball history largely because Sosa hit 66 home runs, and McGwire set the record with 70.
The NHL has a Hart Trophy race, and it’s one where four skaters have made a strong case for the award. Moreover, the four skaters happen to be thriving in markets across North America, making a developing story that’s relevant to the league at large. Seasons like these keep fans from a local to a national level engaged more than usual. The Hart Trophy is an individual award, but watching star players take over games and often take over games by themselves is something all fans can appreciate.
We might look back at the 2023-24 season as one of the best in part because of the four superstars who have stood out. Every season or even an era of hockey is associated with one player, whether it’s Wayne Gretzky of the 1980s or Mario Lemieux of the 1990s. This season, McDavid, MacKinnon, Matthews, and Kucherov will all go down in history for their incredible seasons.
Who do you think will win the Hart Trophy? Let us know in the comments section below.