The Winnipeg Jets are banking on a few players to have breakout seasons in 2023-24. There was the blockbuster trade that saw Pierre-Luc Dubois head to the Los Angeles Kings for the next eight years and the buyout of Blake Wheeler, but outside of that, there has yet to be a major roster shake-up that many predicted.
Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele have yet to be dealt. Whether or not they start the season with the Jets organization is yet to be seen, but either way, these three forwards are going to have to step up in a big way if the Jets are hoping to contend for a playoff spot this season.
Cole Perfetti
If there is a list of breakout candidates across the NHL, Jets forward Cole Perfetti should be one of those names on the list. The former 10th overall selection of the 2020 NHL Draft took a step forward last season, posting 30 points in 51 games and playing a large role in the Jets’ top six.
Now entering his first “contract year” as a pro, Perfetti seems primed to take a major leap in the production category. Health permitting, he will once again be a staple within the organization’s top six. He has suffered two season-ending injuries in his short career which makes health the number one factor in whether or not a breakout season is in the cards for Perfetti.
One of the biggest reasons that a breakout season is attainable for the 21-year-old is the analytics he has posted through just 69 career NHL games. Last season according to Natural Stat Trick, he posted rates above 50 percent in Fenwick percentage, Corsi percentage, high danger chance percentage, and expected goals percentage at even-strength. At five-on-five, he and his linemates outscored their opponents 29-19 (60.42 percent). These are all signs of a bonafide top-six forward, and if Perfetti’s power play time goes up in year three, he is a prime candidate to put up top-six production.
Another thing that would fuel a breakout season would be a move to centre. Perfetti was drafted as a centre out of the Ontario Hockey League but has strictly played on the wing in the NHL to this point. With the departure of Dubois, it opens up a spot for the natural centre to slot into a more comfortable position and benefit as a result.
Gabriel Vilardi
Some would argue that newly acquired Gabriel Vilardi already enjoyed his breakout season in 2022-23, and while that was a breakout season by definition, he has the ability to build off of that in 2023-24 and break out even further in the Jets’ top six.
In 63 games, Vilardi posted 23 points and 18 assists on a contending Kings team. If he sees his power play time increase, along with playing with skilled linemates like Perfetti, Nikolaj Ehlers, or Kyle Connor, he may see a major jump in production.
Obviously, a breakout season would be very much welcomed by the Jets organization. At the time of this writing, Vilardi is still a restricted free agent (RFA) without a contract for the upcoming season. If he decides to bet on himself and go with a shorter-term deal, similar to Dylan Samberg, a breakout season would result in a massive payday in a few years time.
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Vilardi, similar to Perfetti, has also had his fair share of injury issues in the NHL. Last season was the first of his career in which he played more than 60 games. The former 11th-overall pick is a two-way forward that posts strong results at both ends of the ice when he is available. If he dresses for over 70 games in the 2023-24 season, the return on the Dubois trade may look better than advertised.
Morgan Barron
The path for Morgan Barron to enjoy a breakout season is much tougher than the other two names on the list, especially with the acquisition of Alex Iafallo. He may slot in on Adam Lowry’s wing, which would push Barron down to the fourth line. The caveat is that Barron looked better as the season went on last year and finished with 21 points in 70 games. If he is able to carry that momentum into this season, he could crush that point total and become a solid middle-six winger.
Barron was a beast on the penalty kill for the Jets last season, as he and Lowry made up an unstoppable duo which powered the Jets to a top-10 penalty kill in the league. If the offensive abilities continue to grow for Barron, and he is able to start burying more of his chances, you may see him break out in 2023-24. Like Vilardi, he is without a contract at the moment and is an RFA. The Jets will likely re-sign him to a short-term deal and hope that he can break out as early as next season.
These breakout seasons hinge heavily on these players’ roles for the upcoming season. Will Vilardi and Perfetti both be slotted into the top six? Will Barron resume his third-line role? What does the power play time look like for each of them? They all have shown the talent to break out next season, it’s just a matter of whether or not Head Coach Rick Bowness is able to get the best out of them. Getting the best out of these players is essential to a Jets playoff run in 2023-24.