2023-24 was a rough year for the New Jersey Devils — they entered the season with Stanley Cup aspirations after a franchise-record 52-win campaign the season before and fell well short of even making the playoffs. With that, though, they have obtained the 10th overall selection in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, one in which there is deep talent of high-ceiling prospects for the first half of the first round. Because they have some pressing needs heading into 2024-25, like a bona fide starting goaltender and an additional top-six winger to play alongside one of Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, it’s entirely within the realm of possibility that they end up trading the 10th overall pick for a win-now piece. With that in mind, they should exclude a few names from their short list of trade targets with that pick.
Jacob Markstrom
The biggest area of need from a team composition standpoint is undoubtedly a starting goaltender who can provide league-average at worst goaltending on a nightly basis. While current Calgary Flames starter Jacob Markstrom may be that, the Devils should not be looking to him as a solution for next season. Sure, the 34-year-old had a great year with plus-13.7 goals saved above expected (GSAx), and sure, he was a previous target of the Devils before the trade fell through at the last second, but he shouldn’t be on their radar anymore.
Simply put, Markstrom is just too old to spend a 10th overall selection on, especially when there are younger and frankly much better goaltenders out there in the trade market like Nashville Predators star Juuse Saros. He’ll be 35 mid-season, and the Flames have up-and-coming stud Dustin Wolf in the pipeline ready to take control of the Flames’ future in net. If the Devils do pursue him, which I don’t believe they will at all, it should be at a significantly lower price than a highly-touted prospect. Extending a goalie nearing the wrong side of 30 is a dangerous game, and not one I want to see general manager (GM) Tom Fitzgerald play.
Linus Ullmark
Next on the list is another goaltender: Boston Bruins’ 1B Linus Ullmark. Based on talent alone, I would argue that he is likely worth the 10th overall pick, but it isn’t always about skill when it comes to the trade market price. The Bruins made it clear in the playoffs that Jeremy Swayman is their goaltender of the future. They’ll be entering 2024-25 in a cap crunch, having just $20.9 million in space with just 17 roster spots filled out. Among their free-agent group is Swayman, who could command as much as $8 million annually himself. They’re desperately in need of a top-six center, with ex-Devil Pavel Zacha, who has underperformed for much of his career, taking the reins as their first-line center. All this is to say, they’ll need to clear space, and Ullmark is a prime target to leave the team with his $5 million cap hit.
Related: 5 Bargain Free Agents the Devils Must Target
With that in mind, they’ll almost certainly be selling Ullmark at a deficit, regardless of how good he’s been for them over the past couple of seasons. He’s absolutely worth a look for the Devils, to be clear, just not for the 10th overall pick. He’s inarguably the second-best goaltender presumably on the trade market behind Saros, having posted a GSAx north of plus-60 over the past three seasons, but he can be had for cheaper simply because the Bruins can’t afford to negotiate the trade conditions for a player they must absolve themselves of.
Martin Necas
It’s recently come out that Carolina Hurricanes forward Martin Necas is looking to seek employment elsewhere. After a breakout campaign in 2022-23 in which he scored 28 goals and 71 total points, hopes were that he would continue his development arc and transform into a point-per-game player. Instead, he saw a dip in ice time per game of over a minute, only scoring 53 total points in just five fewer games.
While the dip in production is worrisome, it’s not necessarily the reason I think the Devils shouldn’t pursue Necas. The asking price has to be enormous with the perceived value he has, and there are simply better options with more consistent track records and better analytical impacts. Nikolaj Ehlers and Pavel Buchnevich, for example, are two forwards I would much rather see Fitzgerald go after for the top-six. Averaging out to the 82nd percentile for offensive impact and just the 8th percentile for defensive impact at even strength simply doesn’t cut it for me with the value that a player selected at 10th overall in this draft might have, and certainly doesn’t hold a candle to the likes of Ehlers and Buchnevich, both of whom have better analytics and more consistent point production in their careers.
Devils Should Only Trade For a Select Few Targets
I do think that for the right target — something that I’ll touch on in a later piece — the Devils should be moving the 10th overall selection in a trade. Their imminent needs (star goaltender, top-six winger) should trump bolstering their prospect pool. However, if the shortlist of players that I would trade the pick for are unavailable for whatever reason, I would rather the Devils use the pick than trade it for any of the players listed above. Simply put, they can get more bang for their buck by either using the pick or selling it for better players.
