The Buffalo Sabres have big aspirations for 2023-24. Last season, the Sabres were one point short of their first playoff berth in 12 years. This time, they are looking to finally end their NHL record postseason drought. The Sabres haven’t improved in the standings in consecutive seasons since 2015-16, so they will need to buck that trend if they hope to make the playoffs.
Given the numerous talented players on the roster and in the prospect pool, they seem to be building toward something sustainable this time. With all that being said, if Buffalo is going to finally get into the playoffs, a few areas of their game must improve.
Sabres Goaltending
Buffalo’s goaltending was not good enough last season. All their goalies finished outside the top 35 in goals saved above expected (GSAx). Their leader in save percentage was Craig Anderson, whose .908 was only good for 30th in the NHL (minimum 10 games played).
It might take some time for a young offensive team like the Sabres to work out the kinks in their defensive structure. If they don’t have a goalie to bail them out, making the playoffs will be a tall order.
This season, Buffalo is going with a young trio of goalies, including Devon Levi, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, and Eric Comrie. All three are under the age of 29, with Levi being the youngest at just 21. None of these three have played over 33 NHL games in a season. Goaltending is not only the most significant area that needs to be addressed for the Sabres, but it’s also the most unpredictable.
Levi played well in his limited NHL appearances in 2022-23, and considering he is the youngest and most highly-touted prospect in the Sabres’ system, he should be the favorite to be the opening-night starter. However, that is far from set in stone, as the net is wide open for the taking. With the lack of experience between the pipes for these three, the starting goaltender will go to whoever earned it by the season’s end.
It’s unlikely that all three will succeed at the NHL level in 2023-24. The Sabres do feel confident, though, that at least one will be able to take the next step in their career
Buffalo Penalty Kill
The Sabres finished with the 28th-ranked penalty kill last season at just 73 percent. Improving on that number should reduce the team’s goals-against significantly and take some pressure off the young core to produce offense every night.
Injury issues forced the team into a challenging penalty-killing situation last season, so with some luck, Buffalo can avoid giving too many minutes to depth NHLers. Mattias Samuelsson has a prominent role on the kill, so if he can remain healthy this season, that should give the Sabres a boost. Rasmus Dahlin was also excellent in a penalty-killing role, but the coaching staff reduced his ice time late in the season for load management. Keeping these two on the kill as much as possible will be necessary in 2023-24. The addition of Connor Clifton to the penalty-killing unit is a welcome one. He has had success in that role with the Boston Bruins for several years now.
Faceoffs were a massive struggle for the team last season, costing them on the kill. The team was dead last in 2022-23 with a faceoff percentage of just 45.1. Unless one of the Sabres’ center prospects makes the jump to the NHL, they will have the same group taking draws as last year, so an internal improvement on that front will be necessary.
The lack of consistent goaltending also hurt the penalty kill in 2022-23, so the young goaltenders could make an impact if one of them has the breakout season the Sabres are banking on.
The success of the penalty kill will come down to a mix of factors, from faceoffs to goaltending, but the coaching staff also needs to make tactical changes. The Sabres lacked the aggression required to pressure the opposing power play, so it will be interesting to see if the team makes noticeable changes to the strategic side.
Team Defense
The Sabres’ inability to keep the puck out of the net was a multi-layered problem. While the penalty kill and goaltending were both significant issues, the 5v5 defending will also need to be an area of focus. In terms of scoring chance share and puck possession, Buffalo was middle of the pack. The number that stands out is the high-danger chances against, where the team finished 29th in the NHL.
It isn’t always enough to out-chance your opponents when the opportunities you give up are the more quality ones. The Sabres tried to address this a little bit in the offseason by acquiring Clifton and Erik Johnson. The defensive defensemen will be tasked with limiting prime real estate and teaching the young players how to defend the right way. Johnson’s Stanley Cup-winning pedigree and veteran presence will bring some intangibles to the team they didn’t previously have. It will be an essential task for the coaching staff and the veteran personnel to bring the young core up to speed on playing a more responsible game this season. If they can do that, the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs are within reach.
All stats from MoneyPuck.com, Natural Stat Trick, and NHL.com
