With the NHL preseason in full swing and the Colorado Avalanche‘s first game of the regular season coming into view (Oct. 11 against the Los Angeles Kings), what better time than the present to throw out several predictions about the upcoming campaign?
The Avalanche are coming off an injury-filled season in which they still managed to win the Central Division by a single point, but were upset by the surprising Seattle Kraken in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs. Yet, several notable offseason additions have rightfully heightened expectations around the league and within the fanbase, and all eyes are on the Avalanche to see how they rebound from a disappointing Stanley Cup defense.
Related: Avalanche: 5 Key Questions for the 2023-24 NHL Season
With that context in mind, let’s dive into four bold predictions about how the Avalanche will fare in their pursuit of statistical milestones, awards races, and redemption arcs during the 2023-24 season.
Prediction 1: Makar Scores 100 Points
This has been a popular preseason prediction in recent years owing to Cale Makar‘s clear and otherworldly abilities with the puck. Yet, despite the 24-year-old defenseman scoring at an 85-point pace in the regular season for his career, he’s never eclipsed 86 points in a single season (2021-22).
While Makar missed 22 games in 2022-23, he still amassed 17 goals and 66 points in 60 games which put him on track for 23 goals and 90 points over a full 82-game campaign. Those numbers were reached despite missing a number of notable support pieces due to injury for much of the season, as well as Makar’s own inconsistent availability.
With a restocked arsenal of offensive weapons around him as well as healthy seasons from the likes of Valeri Nichushkin (29 games missed), Artturi Lehkonen (18), and even MacKinnon himself (11), surpassing the 100-point threshold is more achievable than it appears at first glance.
Over the past three seasons, Makar ranks first among all NHL defensemen in goals, points, points-per-game, and powerplay points, as well as third in assists and seventh in shots. He’s also played the third-highest average ice time over that span (25:34 per game) and is utilized in all situations.
Makar missed the first few days of training camp which understandably stirred up fears due to his recently spotty injury history, but all signs point to the rearguard bouncing back in a big way in 2023-24. If anyone is going to follow in Erik Karlsson’s footsteps and become the second defenseman in over 30 years to score more than 100 points in a season, it’s Makar.
Prediction #2: Landeskog Returns for the 2024 NHL Playoffs
Of the four predictions, this one is the biggest reach as Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog missed the entire 2022-23 campaign and has already been ruled out for the 2023-24 regular season.
In his last foray onto the ice during the 2021-22 season, Landeskog tallied 41 goals and 81 points across 71 regular-season and playoff games as he led the Avalanche to the third Stanley Cup in franchise history.
General manager Chris MacFarland’s recent quotes raised eyebrows as he stated that his captain’s recovery was progressing well and that there was an outside chance he could appear in the 2024 Playoffs, should the Avalanche qualify for the postseason.
Landeskog is on the downswing of his career (he turns 31 this November) and he’s dealt with multiple injuries over the last few seasons while undergoing three knee surgeries in the last 18 months, so rushing his return could be risky. There’s no doubt that the team misses his leadership and presence on the ice in all situations, but ensuring he can recover at his own pace is critical for the Avalanche’s competitive future beyond this season.
This prediction is the boldest by far but if anyone can defy expectations, it’s the Avalanche’s long-time captain and arguably their hardest-working player on and off the ice.
Prediction #3: MacKinnon Wins the Hart Trophy
I understand that making this prediction while three-time Hart Trophy winner Connor McDavid is still active, but even Wayne Gretzky was limited to nine over his storied career. Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews are two of the few players to interrupt McDavid’s reign atop the proverbial mountain, and another center in Nathan MacKinnon could be next.
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Astute fans will remember the 2017-18 season in which Taylor Hall (then of the New Jersey Devils) won the Hart for his efforts in dragging the Devils to the postseason. His 93 points outstripped the second-highest scorer (Nico Hischier) by 41 points and lent credence to his MVP case.
That season, MacKinnon finished fifth in the league in scoring (97 points) but helped spearhead an Avalanche revival in which they improved upon their 2016-17 point total by 47 points in the standings. He finished fifth in goals per game and second in points per game (0.01 behind McDavid that season), and was named a finalist but was ultimately spurned in favor of Hall.
Since that snub, all MacKinnon has done is produce in all situations. Only McDavid and Draisaitl have scored more points since the start of the 2018-19 season and only McDavid has scored at a higher per-game clip at even-strength.
Over that time, the Avalanche also owned the third-highest points percentage (PTS%) in the regular season and added a Stanley Cup win to their trophy cabinet. MacKinnon has had the team and personal success, but health and historic competition in the MVP race have kept the trophy out of his grip.
MacKinnon has missed 36 games over the past three seasons which hamstrings any MVP case regardless of production, and with McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, Jack Hughes and even Connor Bedard in the future, the competition isn’t getting any easier. Luckily he’s got the likes of Mikko Rantanen (52 goals last season) and Makar flanking him so he’ll have the requisite support for an MVP bid.
If MacKinnon manages to keep pace with the Oilers’ superstars and the Avalanche have another season atop the standings, he has a chance to sneak in a win. MacKinnon is famously driven in his pursuit of success, so don’t count him out for the Hart.
Prediction #4: Colton Scores 30 Goals
Onto a prediction regarding a player who is guaranteed to feature for the Avalanche this season, I am pegging one of Colorado’s offseason acquisitions – forward Ross Colton – to score 30 goals for the first time in his career.
Colton scored 16 goals in 81 games last season with the Tampa Bay Lightning, but he has a 22-goal campaign under his belt (2021-22) and hopes to parlay his astronomical per-minute production into tangible goals with the Avalanche.
Over his first three seasons in the NHL, Colton has never played more than 13 minutes per game in all situations and capped out at 1:23 on the power play in 2021-22. It speaks to the Lightning’s depth (and explains their on-ice success) that players of Colton’s calibre were relegated to bottom-six duty and minor roles on the power play.
Despite limited usage and unfavorable deployment at even strength, Colton’s per-60-minute rate stats at five-on-five put him in a stratosphere with some of the sport’s top offensive talents. Sure, some of that is due to facing easier competition and there’s no guarantee that he is worth his new four-year, $16 million contract, but it shouldn’t discount his numbers entirely.
As a rough estimate, ranking within the top-96 of a category would give him first-line results in that department (32 teams times three forward spots).
| Statistic (Per-60) | Colton | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 23 |
| Points | 1.91 | 117 |
| Shots | 8.9 | 58 |
| Scoring Chances | 9.6 | 43 |
| Expected Goals | 0.98 | 19 |
As a veteran with demonstrable experience as a top-six center, Ryan Johansen (acquired from the Nashville Predators this summer) likely has the inside track to be the Avalanche’s second-line pivot. That doesn’t mean that Colton will be sidelined forever, and a hot start to the season could earn him significant minutes in the top-six as well as the power play.
Keep an eye on the 27-year-old as a breakout candidate in 2023-24 as even a modest bump of two to four minutes and regular powerplay time could make a noticeable difference and elevate Colton into the 30-goal club.
How Will the Avalanche’s 2023-24 Season Unfold?
As a team, the expectations for the Avalanche this year are clear: it’s Stanley Cup or bust, especially after the frustrating end to the 2022-23 campaign.
Projected salary cap increases aside, future raises given to the Avalanche’s rising stars, established leaders, and breakout candidates will threaten the structure of the current roster. Any team led by a triumvirate of MacKinnon, Makar, and Rantanen will always be in the hunt for a Stanley Cup, but contention windows have a habit of shrinking quicker than anticipated.
So, how do you think the Avalanche’s season will ultimately unfold? Will my predictions come true or are they off base? Let me know in the comments and enjoy the season!
Data courtesy of Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
