A player outside of Canada hasn’t won the Hart Trophy since Nikita Kucherov won it in 2018-19. And if the favorites this year win it again — Connor McDavid (+100) or Austin Matthews (+1000) — then that will remain true for at least another season. But there’s plenty of talent in the NHL to go around, and plenty of teams looking for a most valuable player this season. While McDavid might be the best player in the world, Matthews might be the best goal-scorer in the NHL, and Connor Bedard might be the most talked-about player this season, there are plenty of other players who could supplant them in winning the Hart Trophy. In this article, we’ll look at four of the best “longshot” bets (using these odds), limiting our scope to players ranked +2000 or more, trying to make the case for why each has a legitimate chance to win this coveted trophy.
Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche): +2000
It’s tough to imagine that a player as singularly talented as Cale Makar could be a +2000 underdog for the Hart Trophy. It speaks to how dominant McDavid is in the league, it speaks to how valuable Makar’s teammate, Nathan MacKinnon, is to the Colorado Avalanche, but it also speaks to how rarely defenders win the Hart Trophy. Even though a cornerstone defenseman might be even more coveted by general managers than a star forward, a blueliner hasn’t won the league’s top individual award since Chris Pronger’s unbelievable 1999-2000 season. Pronger didn’t have to do much to win the award back then — just finish at a plus-52, with 62 points in 79 games, averaging 30:14 per game. In today’s NHL, there’s almost no chance any player can get that kind of TOI (Makar averaged 26:22 last season, leading the league), but there’s still a clear path for Makar to win this award.
So, how can Makar claim the silverware? Well, last season, he finished with 66 points in 60 games. If he stays healthy, he could easily push toward 100 points. That will probably get him noticed. Even so, he probably needs stars like MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen to have a lackluster season for one reason or another. He needs to be stellar defensively (no concerns there), and he probably needs to lead the league in ATOI again, maybe even increasing that total. It’s a tough hill to climb, even for a player as talented as Makar. But if any defenseman in this generation is capable, it’s probably Makar.
Jason Robertson (Dallas Stars): +4000
It might be a bold take, with as many good players in the NHL as there are right now, but Jason Robertson will be a future Hart Trophy winner. The former 39th-overall pick has all the markers of that kind of game-changing talent. As good as he was as a rookie, he has gotten better every season, finishing with 109 points last season, and ending up fourth in Hart Trophy voting. The Dallas Stars are a loaded team, but Robertson is clearly still their best player on the roster. He just turned 24, and he’s still getting better. The sky is the limit for him.
Of course, all the future promise in the world doesn’t guarantee him anything this season. To catch McDavid and Matthews, he’s probably going to have to outscore them — or at least get close enough to be in the conversation. McDavid, Matthews, and Leon Draisaitl might struggle to earn votes because they’ve all won the award recently. That could help Robertson’s case. But he will still have to be absolutely superlative to reach the top of the mountain. He will one day. If he does it in the 2023-24 season, he’s going to prove a lot of oddsmakers wrong in the process.
Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks): +5500
A redemption arc for one of the most snake-bitten teams in the NHL. That’s the path to the Hart Trophy for Vancouver Canucks superstar Elias Pettersson. There’s no question he’s an extraordinary player, and that his talent has been noticed around the league — he earned votes for the Hart, Lady Byng, and Selke Trophies last season — but he’ll still have to have a career year to win the Hart this season, and lead the Canucks back to glory in the process.
Pettersson had 102 points last season, but it wasn’t enough to save the Canucks from a dismal season. They finished with 83 points and missed the playoffs by a wide margin. But that’s a double-edged sword for Pettersson. A player who misses the playoffs, especially by a lot, is unlikely to be able to convince enough voters that he’s the league’s “most valuable player.” But a player who takes a bad or fringe team to the promised land has a huge proof case for why the Hart Trophy should have his name on it. If Pettersson can do enough this season to get Vancouver back into the postseason, he will likely be a Hart Trophy finalist at the very least. And winning it won’t be out of the question. And with a contract extension due this offseason, he has all the motivation in the world to bring his A-game.
Jack Eichel (Vegas Golden Knights): +9500
It wasn’t that long ago that Jack Eichel was routinely discussed in the same breath as McDavid. But a serious neck injury and his bumpy exit from Buffalo lowered his profile around the NHL considerably. That is, until last postseason. Peak Eichel returned and led the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup, leading the playoffs in points with 26. He narrowly lost the Conn Smythe Trophy to Jonathan Marchessault, but he was arguably the best player on the ice all playoffs.
Related: Jack Eichel in Line to Win a Stanley Cup Before Connor McDavid
If that Eichel shows up (and stays healthy) during the regular season, +9500 are mouthwatering odds. For all their success, the Golden Knights don’t really have a lot of top-level superstars. They traded for Eichel to become that. They’re paying him like that (in fact, he became the first player in the salary cap era to win the Stanley Cup with a salary of $10 million or more). If he remains a superstar this season, he could lead them back to the playoffs and possibly to the Presidents’ Trophy. If Eichel separates himself from the rest of the Golden Knights’ roster and helps them have one of their best regular seasons yet, there will be plenty of voters ready to put that redemption story at the top of their Hart Trophy ballot.
Who is Your Favorite?
So, who do you think will win the Hart Trophy this season? Flood the comments with your pick! But don’t say McDavid, that’s boring (even if it is the most likely option by far)! Let us know if you like one of our picks or have some other underdog in mind. The regular season is back underway. Let’s all celebrate the return of NHL hockey!
