When we ranked our longshots for the 2022-23 Vezina Trophy a year ago, Linus Ullmark wasn’t even on our radar. It wasn’t even clear that he’d be the starter for the Boston Bruins, let alone win 40 games and lead the league in that category, as well as save percentage (SV%), goals-against average (GAA), and goals saved above average (GSAA). He ended up winning the Vezina Trophy by a wide margin over Ilya Sorokin, Connor Hellebuyck, and others. That ascension only serves to reinforce that goaltending is unpredictable, making the Vezina Trophy one of the hardest trophies to successfully predict before the season.
In this article, we will once again look at the goalies who are not favorites for this year’s trophy. We’ll use these odds from Sports Betting Dime, starting our discussion with goalies carrying +2,000 odds or more. That means Sorokin, Hellebuyck, Ullmark, and many of the other top goaltenders in the NHL will not be considered. But if Ullmark is proof of anything, it’s that you don’t have to be on the board before the season to be lifting the trophy when it’s all said and done.
Filip Gustavsson (Minnesota Wild): +2000
He may sit at +2000 odds as we enter the season, but one thing is certain: if Filip Gustavsson can repeat for a full season in 2023-24 what he managed in 37 starts in 2022-23, he will at least be a finalist for the Vezina Trophy — and probably the winner. That’s because Gustavsson’s stats last season were otherworldly. In his 37 starts, he went 22-9-7, with a .931 SV% and a 2.10 GAA, with 31.3 GSAA.
Those numbers are certainly good enough to be in the Vezina conversation if he does them over 50 or 55 starts. But the biggest obstacle to Gustavsson’s success may be on his own team. Marc-Andre Fleury is still the other goaltender in Minnesota, and head coach Dean Evason will be hard-pressed to make him a true backup. If Fleury is still in line for 30-plus starts, it will be hard for Gustavsson to beat out some netminders who start 55-plus games for their team. True workhorses always have the edge in these awards. But Ullmark only started 48 games last season, so anything is possible. Gustavsson certainly has the ability to put up the numbers to win this trophy.
Jacob Markström (Calgary Flames): +3000
It’s been just one season since Jacob Markström was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy in 2022. But that season was nothing short of a disaster for the Gavle, Sweden native. The 33-year-old netminder fell apart for the Calgary Flames, posting a .892 SV% and 2.92 GAA, along with minus-18.4 GSAA, in 58 starts. It could be wear and tear finally catching up with him — Markstrom has averaged 54 starts over the last six seasons, and two of those were COVID-shortened — but it’s a worrying sign for a goalie approaching the end of his prime.
Related: Markström’s Preseason Struggles a Cause for Concern
With that caveat, if Markström were able to return to form this season, the argument for being in the Vezina Trophy conversation is obvious. He’s a true workhorse, and will doubtlessly start 55-plus games, if healthy. He’s been one of the league’s best goalies in the past, finishing second in Vezina voting in 2022 and fourth in 2020. It’s certainly within the realm of possibility that he makes his case for the trophy this year, continuing the on/off/on/off pattern of the last few seasons. But he’ll have to slay some demons from last season to make it happen.
Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida Panthers): +4000
It’s not Fleury, Andrei Vasilevskiy, or Jonathan Quick, but Sergei Bobrovsky who is the only multi-time Vezina Trophy-winning goalie that is currently active in the NHL. But after four unimpressive seasons in South Florida, does he really have a path to becoming a three-time winner? Maybe, if the 2023 Postseason is any indication.
Fans saw an older version of Bobrovsky in last year’s playoffs. In a 12-game stretch starting with Game 3 against the Boston Bruins, until the Stanley Cup Final, where he finally ran out of steam, he was unbeatable, going 11-1-0 with a .942 SV% and a GAA under 2.0. That’s the version of Bobrovsky that won Vezina Trophies in 2013 and 2017. And if that version shows up in Florida this season, he’ll be in the trophy conversation again.
Jordan Binnington (St. Louis Blues): Unlisted
Yes, this author covers the St. Louis Blues. But before I’m accused of homerism, let me be clear that I also ranked Jordan Binnington as the second-worst goalie in the NHL heading into this season. Few in St. Louis have any delusions that their former Stanley Cup hero has been good enough over the last few seasons. He’s been pretty abysmal, and there isn’t a lot of reason to expect otherwise going into the 2023-24 season. With Joel Hofer making his debut as a rookie backup this season, Binnington’s seat is getting hotter by the moment.
But there is a case for Binnington taking the Vezina Trophy, as unlikely as it seems (and unlikely is the whole point of this article). Firstly, anyone who watched his meteoric rise in 2019 knows how good he can be at his best. Binnington turned 30 and got married this summer, and “just wants to win again” according to his interview with KSDK in St. Louis. And with a rookie behind him, if he does recover his top level form, he will undoubtedly get a lion’s share of starts this season. A resurgent Binnington carrying the Blues into an unlikely playoff spot would undoubtedly have a case for the Vezina Trophy. It’s a longshot, but that’s what this article is all about.
Who Do You Think Will Win It?
So, who do you think will win the Vezina Trophy? Is it a favorite, one of these longshots, or someone we’ve failed to mention? Let us know in the comments. While some trophies are predictable, the Vezina Trophy is anyone’s guess. But with the season starting today, there’s nothing left to do but say “let the best man win.”
