Three days remain in the 2022-23 NHL season, and there are still three possible first round playoff opponents for Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers.
While the Oilers will likely face the Los Angeles Kings, a matchup with the Seattle Kraken or Winnipeg Jets is not out of the question when the postseason begins on April 17.
Edmonton’s opposition will largely be determined by results on the out-of-town scoreboard from now until Friday (April 14), but could also depend on how the Oilers fare in their final game of the regular season on Thursday (April 13) at Rogers Place against the San Jose Sharks.
Following Edmonton’s 2-1 overtime victory in Denver against the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday (April 11), the Oilers are two points back of the Vegas Golden Knights for top spot in the Pacific Division. They can finish no worse than second in the division standings, giving them home-ice advantage in their best-of-seven first round series.
If the Oilers can overtake the Golden Knights, they will earn the first or second overall seed in the Western Conference, in which case the first-round opponent could be any of the Jets, Kraken, or Kings. If the Oilers remain in second, they will meet either the Kings or the Kraken.
So what has to happen for the Oilers to draw into a series with each of these five teams? And who would they most like to face? Here’s a look at all the possibilities, as of games completed Tuesday:
How the Oilers Can Win Division
Edmonton has 107 points, while Vegas has 109 to sit atop the Pacific Division. Both teams have one game remaining, with the Golden Knights facing the Kraken in Seattle on Thursday.
The first tiebreaker in the standings is regulation wins (RW), and Edmonton has clinched the highest RW total in the Western Conference.
That makes it very simple: for the Oilers to finish first, they must defeat the Sharks and need the Golden Knights to lose in regulation on Thursday. Anything else happens, and Vegas takes top spot.
How the Oilers Can Be No. 1 in Conference
Should Edmonton place first in the division, the question then becomes whether the Oilers will be the Western Conference’s first or second seed. The No. 1 overall seed is the team with the best record between the first-place finishers from the Pacific and Central Divisions.
The Central Division is coming down to the wire between the Avalanche and Dallas Stars. After picking up a point with the overtime loss to Edmonton on Tuesday, Colorado has 105 points, one more than Dallas. Both teams have two games remaining: the Stars play a home-and-home against the St. Louis Blues tonight and Thursday, while the Avs host the Jets on Thursday before traveling to play the Nashville Predators on Friday in what is the last game on the 2022-23 NHL regular season schedule.
The scenario for Edmonton to finish atop the Western Conference standings for the first time since 1986-87 — more than eight years before Leon Draisaitl was born — requires a number of things to happen but is not entirely unrealistic. The first order of business, of course, is an Oilers win and Vegas regulation loss on Thursday. Then all that’s needed is for Colorado to lose one of its last two games (in either regulation or overtime).
Related: Oilers’ Surge in Secondary Scoring Sets Stage for Stanley Cup Run
If the Oilers finish with the No. 1 overall seed, they will play Winnipeg in a rematch from the 2021 Postseason, when standout goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck helped the Jets sweep Edmonton 4-0. Winnipeg is locked into fourth place in the Central Division and has clinched a wild card playoff berth.
If the Oilers are seeded second overall, they will face either the Kings or Kraken, whichever team finishes lower in the standings. Edmonton has never played Seattle in the playoffs, but the Oilers have a long postseason history with the Kings, including last spring when they knocked off L.A. in a thrilling seven-game first round series.
Edmonton’s Second Place Outlook
A second-place finish for the Oilers means a Pacific time zone opponent in the first round. The only question is whether they will come from California or Washington.
The Kings and Kraken are jockeying for third and fourth place in the Pacific Division. Fourth place means a wild card playoff position, while third place will draw into a first-round series against second place, either Vegas or the Oilers.
Los Angeles has 102 points while Seattle has 100, but the Kraken hold the tiebreaker by virtue of more regulation wins. Both teams have just one game left: the Kraken, as mentioned, will host the Golden Knights on Thursday, while the Kings have a road game against the Anaheim Ducks that same night. A Seattle win and Los Angeles regulation loss is the only scenario in which the Kraken finish ahead of the Kings.
Seattle is the Oilers’ Most Favorable Matchup
Edmonton has played each of its potential opponents three or four times during the regular season. The Oilers are 3-1 against Seattle with a plus-seven goal differential, 2-2 against Los Angeles with a minus-one goal differential, and 1-2 against Winnipeg with a zero goal differential.
Based on those records, Seattle would be the preferred first round opponent; however, the Oilers have won their last two meetings with Los Angeles by a combined margin of four goals.
Ultimately, with the Oilers on a 17-2-1 stretch, their most wins over a 20-game span since 1985-86, they probably don’t care who the opponent is. They just want to get started on the chase for the Stanley Cup. When the sun rises Friday, the playoff picture will be much clearer.