Everyone expects Montreal Canadiens goalie Casey DeSmith to be traded. And, while there’s good reason for that, there’s no denying his acquisition alongside Jeff Petry a few weeks ago gives the Habs options. In fact, in spite of the fact DeSmith could very well be traded, there’s at least a chance he stays.
Related: Canadiens Still Make Petry’s Short Second Habs Stint Count
With that in mind, how likely is it, really? Relatively speaking, it actually isn’t all that unlikely, at least looking at general manager Kent Hughes’ options to put together his goaltending tandem as a whole. Here are the top five for the 2023-24 season, featuring their four waiver-eligible goalies, in order of increasing likelihood:
5. Any Three-Man Combination
To a degree, it would simplify matters for the Canadiens, just going with three goalies. It would at least simplify matters in net. It’s a different story across the rest of the lineup. It turns out, there’s a good reason why teams rarely go with a three-goalie rotation. The 2023-24 Habs epitomize it perfectly.
Put simply, the Canadiens don’t have room to keep three goalies. Of the 23 total roster spots they have, 21 of them are best served being devoted to the forward group and defensive corps. Many of the team’s players are eligible for waivers. Even the ones who are exempt, like Rafael Harvey-Pinard, are arguably just more valuable to the Habs in the long term than any of the goalies who would otherwise take his spot… at least with possible exception to one.
4. Any Tandem Excluding Sam Montembeault
Objectively speaking, none of the Canadiens’ four NHL goalies have consistently displayed the game-breaking talent Hughes would need to see to justify using three roster spots on the position. However, one of them, Sam Montembeault, at least showed flashes last season.
From a bird’s eye view, Montembeault’s 2023-24 season was nothing about which to write home. He went 16-19-3 with a 3.42 goals-against average (GAA) and .901 save percentage (SV%), which are mediocre numbers to be kind. However, they’re more indicative of the quality of the team in front of him that finished fifth from last.
In contrast, his goals saved above expected was among the league leaders, which is more representative of the effort level he brought forth on a regular basis. That effort level was enough for many to throw his at-one-time perceived ceiling as a third-string goalie by the wayside. Some may even suggest he has the potential to be a starter.
Now, a lot remains to be seen on that front. No one (here) is suggesting he’s earned starter’s status yet. Instead, it’s more a case of the Canadiens needing to give him that opportunity to properly assess what they have in the 27-year-old. He’s a pending unrestricted free agent, so, since they don’t have anyone else who’s so much as close to a sure No. 1 in the organization, the Habs have nothing to lose giving him the net to see if he can do the job.
Sure, of all the goalies they have, Montembeault has the highest trade value. However, a) that doesn’t mean that trade value is high in general and b) based on how hard it is to get your hands on a quality starter, they can’t afford to give him up on the slimmest of chances he pans out… at least not until he becomes a UFA.
Re-signing Montembeault early can mean trouble based on his overall track record. Meanwhile re-signing him too late can certainly mean a much higher cap hit. However, that’s a pretty good worst-case scenario. If Montembeault earns that money with a sensational season, few will really complain. All things considered, the Habs would have to be collectively insane to pass up simply seeing how he does with more responsibility, with higher expectations, when the expectations surrounding the team in general remain low.
3. Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau
So, things become simpler for Hughes once we establish that one of the, not three, but two spots should go to Montembeault without a doubt. However, while that makes things easier, the GM still faces a tough decision as Cayden Primeau becomes waiver-eligible.
No one can rationally argue Primeau has earned a spot in the NHL. Through 21 career appearances, he has a 4.11 GAA and .871 SV%. However, the Habs haven’t exactly done the 24-year-old any developmental favors throwing him to the wolves over the last few seasons, throwing him in net without much of a team in front of him.
Granted, that was in large part due to the Canadiens’ injury situation, which also left the Habs without many other options in net besides Primeau. Nevertheless, what also can’t be denied is Primeau has been incredibly consistent in the American Hockey League in his professional career.
Say the Canadiens hypothetically put Primeau in a stable situation in the NHL. Can they be 100% certain he won’t start to find his way to being the heir apparent to Carey Price (who’s now all but officially retired) he once was in the eyes of many? Are they so certain he isn’t that they can justify waiving him, simply to protect one of their other remaining goalies, neither of whom having a long-term future with the team, one way or another? They need to ask themselves exactly that fairly soon.
2. Sam Montembeault and Casey DeSmith
If the Canadiens went with their two best goalies, Casey DeSmith would be the undeniable second goalie to get the nod beside Montembeault. For example, he has borderline impressive numbers in his career, albeit playing the entirety of it for playoff mainstays in the Pittsburgh Penguins, with a 58-44-15 record, 2.81 GAA and .912 SV%.
DeSmith is also “just” 32, compared to Jake Allen’s 34 years of age. So, it’s logical he has more left in the tank, with Allen’s stats having declined in each season he’s played with the Canadiens. Sure, it’s possible, likely even, that DeSmith’s stats suffer too, playing net for such a young, inexperienced team. However, seeing as Montembeault improved year over year over the last two seasons, there’s arguably something to read into Allen regressing instead.
If the Canadiens’ goal this season is to at least compete for a playoff spot (and all signs point to that being the case), DeSmith makes the most sense. However, as any fan can attest to based on their experience cheering on the Habs, managerial decisions aren’t always made based solely on on-ice play. Sometimes there are extenuating circumstances.
1. Sam Montembeault and Jake Allen
To be clear, Allen isn’t a bad goalie. In fact, his numbers from last season, namely his 3.55 GAA and .891 SV%, don’t accurately reflect the degree to which he managed to steal points for the Canadiens every so often, nor the overall effort level he put forth.
That effort, combined with his leadership, likely contributed to the two-year extension he signed to start 2022-23, which now comes into effect. Even so, things change. Allen was likely seen as the team’s No. 1 goalie during this rebuild. That’s the only way to explain the raise he was given as a goalie in statistical decline entering his mid-30s: hazard pay.
However, Montembeault’s emergence, for lack of a better word, has pushed Allen into the backup role in all likelihood. And a $3.85 million cap hit for a backup? It’s less than ideal. It also makes for a contract that’s hard to deal, especially with his seven-team no-trade list to consider. So, barring something incredibly unforeseen, Allen’s spot is safe.
There are of course several reasons why the Canadiens should waive Allen instead. There’s the fact DeSmith is probably the better goalie. There’s the possibility however remote that another team claims him off waivers, taking the contract off Hughes’ hands. There’s also Jakub Dobes, the Habs’ next great hope to become a star No. 1, who could probably benefit more from his veteran leadership in the AHL than Montembeault in the NHL at this point.
All good reasons… but Hughes made that commitment to Allen. If there’s anything the aforementioned Petry saga taught us, it’s that Hughes tries his best to honor his commitments. Furthermore, considering the still-low expectations surrounding the Canadiens, it’s not like they need the marginally better goaltending DeSmith should provide over Allen, especially as Montembeault’s projected backup.
Looking at it that way, no one should expect the Canadiens’ goaltending to be a strength in 2023-24. Granted, that was true last season too, and Montembeault emerged as an NHL-caliber goalie, albeit one with a lot more still left to prove. As long as he gets the chance to prove what he can do for better or worse, the Habs will have gotten all they need.
However they get there, with whomever they’ve got backing Montembeault up, they’ll be okay. That’s the best way to look at it, with the likeliest option being far from the best. Thankfully, it’s also far from the worst.