With many fantasy hockey drafts approaching, now would be a good time to look at some players who are likely due for regression this season. Some players have a very high average draft position (ADP) despite it being improbable that they have the same fantasy success as they did in 2022-23. Using ESPN draft positions and scoring standards, which players could see regression?
Ilya Sorokin, Goaltender (ADP 14.0)
Though Ilya Sorokin is one of the best goaltenders in the league, getting drafted with a first-round pick in some leagues is far too high on its own, even if he were to maintain his pace from last season. However, the fourth-best season in goals saved above expected (GSAx) history since it started being tracked in 2008-09 shows that he will likely cool off.
GSAx is used to track how many more saves a netminder is making versus what is expected out of them. With a regular season total of 38.7, that tops some of the best goaltending seasons we have seen in recent memory, such as that of Igor Shesterkin in 2021-22 (34.1 GSAx) and 2014-15 Carey Price (33.2 GSAx).
Historically, no goaltender who finished with a GSAx of 30.0 or above has ever improved from the season before. With an average regression of 25.8 GSAx from one season to the next for those that fit this criterion, it’s safe to say that Sorokin might not see the same success. For leagues that take both wins and goals against into account, this might make him a player to avoid, or at the very least be cautious about.
After improving his GSAx by 25.9 from 2021-22 to the 2022-23 season, yet only appearing in 10 more games, there is very little room for Sorokin to improve. In many leagues, he is getting drafted as though he and his team will get even better. With the official prediction of NHL.com stating that the team will miss the playoffs, it might be safer to use your early pick on somebody else.
Erik Karlsson, Defenseman (ADP 21.9)
Erik Karlsson is a bit of an obvious candidate to regress in 2023-24. After becoming only the sixth player in NHL history to score 100 points in a season as a defenseman and the only one to do it since the 1992-93 season, he probably won’t achieve that feat again, especially given that he is on a new team with more competition for minutes.
Depending on your league, points can be pivotal for defensemen. In standard ESPN leagues, he ranked as the third-best defenseman last season despite having one of the most impressive offensive showings for a defenseman ever. Playing in 81 games after missing 32 the year prior, injuries could play a factor in where he finishes, as well.
For most leagues, goals are the best way to get fantasy points for any skater. With a career-high 25 goals last season, his fantasy output likely isn’t topped. With 12.6 goals scored above expected, it should be implied that he regresses. If he is healthy, this might not be by much, as he had 4.4 in the total in 2021-22 despite missing time. Much of this changes when you switch teams, but he was an efficient scorer even in his days with the Ottawa Senators.
Karlsson almost certainly won’t score to the extent that he did in 2022-23, but he should still have a great season with Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins. It probably won’t be enough to justify him as one of the first defenders off the board in nearly all drafts, but he could still be among the best.
Juuse Saros, Goaltender (ADP 39.1)
Juuse Saros is in the Sorokin camp in that his GSAx was incredibly high, and he could see that total go down from where it was in 2022-23. After breaking the regular season record for GSAx with 46.7, he would have to one-up the greatest season in analytical goaltending history. This would be more than a challenge on a Nashville Predators team that arguably regressed in the offseason.
With both wins and goals against playing a massive role in how well a goaltender does in fantasy, these are areas that managers should be putting much of their focus into when drafting a goalie. Saros will see a massive share in terms of starts, but he also has a solid backup in Kevin Lankinen. More games could be given to his backup to increase longevity and limit injury, which could realistically occur with how safe teams are with goalies nowadays.
Related: 2023-24 Fantasy Hockey Advice: Goalies to Target
Whatever Nashville does, do not expect Saros to repeat his historic season. While he is not getting drafted like he will do this, many drafters like to pick based on upside and progression. He is the opposite of this, even if he is arguably the best goaltender in the NHL.
Dougie Hamilton, Defenseman (ADP 65.1)
With a similar theme to Karlsson, Dougie Hamilton is a regression candidate, mostly due to his offensive output from last season. With 74 points in 82 games on the year, yet finishing as the 16th-best defenseman in standard ESPN scoring leagues, he might be a player to avoid altogether with how high he is getting drafted.
Not only was Hamilton fully healthy, but he was also rather lucky in terms of goal-scoring. With a stacked New Jersey Devils roster, it might seem that 22 goals would be his new norm, but that won’t generally be the case. Scoring 8.6 goals above expected, he ranked 22nd in the total among all NHL skaters despite being a defenseman. A finish of minus-2.3 in the total in 2021-22 doesn’t necessarily inspire improvement.
Hamilton is a classic case of being a much better defender in the NHL than in fantasy. In most leagues, he will get drafted based on his NHL pedigree rather than his fantasy reputation. With regression on top of him being over-drafted, he should be an easy fade, depending on how points are valued in your league.
Jared McCann, Forward (ADP 106.9)
Jared McCann was a shocking revelation for the Seattle Kraken. Despite playing in limited minutes, he led the NHL in goals above expected with 19.6. Not getting first-line minutes consistently, coupled with being one of the highest-efficiency shooters in the league is grounds, for regression.
Generational goal scorers such as Auston Matthews or Alexander Ovechkin can get away with shooting at a high rate consistently, especially since they are on the ice as much as possible and in nearly all scoring situations. McCann is a fantastic goal scorer, but he will never quite be on the level of those players when they are at their best. With an increase of 14.4 goals above expected from the year before, many fantasy leagues will have him go from a decent roster player to one best suited for waivers.
For a team like the Kraken that has a deep offensive lineup, it will be hard for McCann to play for much more than the 16:20 average he had on the ice last season. Depending on how goals are valued in your league, it would be best to fade the 27-year-old.
Andrei Kuzmenko, Forward (ADP 125.4)
Andrei Kuzmenko became a pleasant surprise for the Vancouver Canucks in an otherwise miserable season in 2022-23. With an insane 27.3 shooting percentage on the year and 15.0 goals above expected, he is unfortunately poised for a decline in fantasy output.
A big reason why Kuzmenko is getting drafted so low in the first place is because of his limited contributions outside of scoring. For many leagues, blocks, hits, and even plus-minus are a creative way to have an increase in fantasy points and make more players in the NHL relevant. With just 18 blocks and 13 hits, he is almost all offense. This is perfectly fine in the NHL, but it raises some concerns in fantasy.
If Kuzmenko truly is an elite goal scorer, then it is plausible that he doesn’t regress too much in the scoring department, but his efficiencies will still decline by quite a bit. His 21 secondary assists to just 14 primary assists is generally unsustainable, given that it implies that he was not the one creating the chances from a general analysis standpoint. Even if he is just a late-round flyer for most leagues, it would be smart to avoid him if you believe that his ceiling isn’t much higher than what he accomplished last season.
Historical trends suggest that each of these players will regress in terms of fantasy output, and perhaps significantly. That is not always the case, as each player is unique. Whatever happens, it is always smart to keep track of overachievers as well as underachievers, as it might help you find a gem and have an advantage in your league.
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