The St. Louis Blues are in their best stretch of the season, having won back-to-back games against the New Jersey Devils and the Montreal Canadiens. But inconsistent play has marred the first month of the season, much like last season, and it is difficult to project that the Blues will be a playoff team with any confidence. A big part of the problem is the team’s defense, especially on the left side, where aging veterans like Torey Krug, Nick Leddy, and Marco Scandella seem to be a step behind today’s NHL.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the NHL, former Blues’ left-handed defensemen Vince Dunn and Jake Walman are thriving, after leaving the Blues in two deals that netted the team very little return. Every team has players that they’d rather have back. But it is fair to wonder how much better the Blues would be now if they had found a way to keep both Dunn and Walman. Let’s look at why the players left and how they’ve done since their departure.
Dunn Heads to Seattle and Thrives
In some ways, the loss of Dunn is understandable. Turn the clocks back to 2021: the Blues are two seasons removed from their first-ever Stanley Cup, a victory in which Dunn played a relatively small role. The developing defenseman was 24 at the time, coming off a season in which he’d put up 20 points in 43 games, and approaching restricted free agency (RFA). General manager Doug Armstrong had to make a decision on whom to protect in the upcoming Seattle Kraken expansion draft. And while there was some clamor amongst fans to protect younger plays like Dunn, or at least trade him rather than lose him for nothing, it was no surprise when the Blues chose to protect Krug, Colton Parayko, and Justin Faulk, the veteran core of their defense. Armstrong did expose Vladimir Tarasenko, dangling the injured and unhappy forward as a potential carrot, but Seattle passed on his big contract and took Dunn for free.
It was hardly an instant success for Dunn in the Emerald City, where his first season continued much as his tenure with St. Louis had: 35 points in 73 games and a worrying minus-21. It didn’t seem like the Blues had lost much, or that Dunn would ever unlock the offensive upside that many thought he might have. But something changed in the 2022-23 season. The Mississauga, Ontario native exploded for 64 points in 81 games, coming second on the resurgent Kraken in points, as they finished fourth in the Pacific Division, and gutted past the dominant Colorado Avalanche for a shocking first-round upset.
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To make matters worse for beleaguered Blues fans, their defense — still led by the veterans Faulk, Parayko, and Krug that Armstrong had protected over Dunn — fell to pieces during the same season, leading the long list of reasons the team missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Dunn’s breakout performance was enough to land him a four-year, $28 million contract extension in the summer, and he doesn’t seem to be slowing down, with nine points in the first 11 games of the 2023-24 season.
Related: Kraken’s Vince Dunn Contract a Win for Both Sides
Ironically, Dunn’s contract will end with Seattle at the same time that Faulk’s and Krug’s deals with the Blues are set to expire (Parayko will still have three seasons left at that point). It’s hard to imagine Armstrong wouldn’t rather be paying $7 million per season over that stretch for the 27-year-old Dunn rather than the 32-year-old Krug, whom he tried to trade this summer. But Dunn isn’t the only lefty that Armstrong would like to have back.
Walman Takes Flight with Red Wings
While Dunn’s loss was unfortunate but understandable, the Blues’ decision to trade Walman remains a head-scratcher. It isn’t that Walman had shown signs of real greatness in St. Louis — though he’d had flashes of brilliance. But the Blues’ decision to trade for Leddy at the 2022 trade deadline was confusing at the time and looks like a major mistake in hindsight. armstrong surrendered Walman, Oskar Sundqvist, and a second-round pick to Detroit to acquire Leddy, who added rental depth to the left side. Based on advanced metrics, Walman was already outperforming Leddy, an aging defenseman whose best years were clearly behind him. But St. Louis opted for the veteran presence in the playoff push and let go of a young defenseman with upside.
They say self-improvement is the best way to get over an ex, and if that was Walman’s goal in the 2022-23 season, he succeeded with flying colors. Though his 18 points in 63 games don’t fly off the page, Walman became an analytics darling who excels in all areas of the ice. He became a big part of the Detroit defense, earning himself a three-year contract extension in the process, and he has continued to thrive early in the 2023-24 season.
Meanwhile, Armstrong chose to extend Leddy on a four-year contract, a move that immediately brought to mind the disastrous Scandella extension from a few seasons prior. It is harsh, but fair, to say that the Leddy extension has not looked good for even one second in the 88 games he has played on it so far. Meanwhile, Walman is being paid less to far outperform him in Detroit. Even Andrew Gibson, the OHL defenseman the Red Wings chose with the Blues’ second-round pick, is turning heads. At least the Blues re-signed Sundqvist this summer. But even a player as popular as he is isn’t much of a salve for such a misguided trade. If the Blues regret losing Dunn in the expansion draft, they have to be kicking themselves 10 times more for trading Walman. It was a completely unforced error, and one the Blues will be paying for for at least three more seasons.
Big Blueline Problems
The Blues’ defensive unit has been and remains its foremost problem. It is a big, ineffective, and highly expensive mess that Armstrong (or his successor) will have to spend several seasons rebuilding. Hindsight is 20-20, but choosing to give up on two young left-handed defensemen for basically nothing didn’t seem like a great idea at the time. Over the next three seasons, the Blues will pay Krug and Leddy an average of $10.5 million, and likely continue to see subpar results. Meanwhile, Dunn and Walman will make $10.4 million for three years of their prime. If they continue to play as well in their new homes as they have so far, it will continue to haunt the Blues for many seasons to come.