Following a disappointing 2022-23 campaign for the Philadelphia Flyers, Joel Farabee has since been the best version of himself in his entire career this season. He is in the midst of a resurgence, and this is fantastic news for the Flyers if he can keep it up.
Stagnant After Extension
On Sept. 2, 2021, Farabee received a six-year extension worth $30 million when he was just 21 years old. This was obviously a big risk, but the rewards of it were very apparent. Coming off a 20-goal, 38-point campaign in just 55 games in 2020-21, it seemed as though he was blossoming into a star player rather quickly.
Instead of opting for a bridge deal, general manager (GM) Chuck Fletcher decided to lock him up through the 2027-28 season. The expectation was that he would continue to improve as a player, and potentially become one of the best players on the Flyers. At first, it didn’t turn out that way.
His 2021-22 campaign wasn’t necessarily a step back, but it wasn’t a step forward, either. In 63 games, he had 17 goals and 34 points. He wasn’t quite living up to the extension that was set to kick in the following season, but his injuries during the season didn’t help his case. He showed flashes, but wasn’t consistent enough to warrant his price tag at that point.
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Farabee played all 82 games in his 2022-23 campaign, but it was definitely a step in the wrong direction for him. Perhaps hindered by the disc replacement surgery that he underwent during the offseason, he was simply not the same player that he had been when he signed his extension. He only scored 15 goals and 39 points over the course of the season, only scoring 12 points from the start of December through the month of February. This was a pace of less than a point every three games, and his contract was beginning to look like an overpayment.
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There was still some hope that he could start to improve after he was a full year off of surgery, but only time would tell. During the offseason, it became clear that he needed to have a good season in order to remain on the team, as the Flyers were officially transitioning into a rebuild.
Farabee’s Play in 2023-24
Farabee’s scoring totals this season don’t even do him proper justice to how well he is playing. So far, his six goals and 10 points through 13 games are on pace for 38 goals and 63 points. Playing just over 15 minutes of ice time per game, this is significantly more impressive than if he were doing it with top-line minutes. His point pace has been good, but it could be argued that his actual play on the ice has been even better.
Farabee has used his speed to his advantage, been sensational in transition, better defensively, and a fantastic generator of offense so far this season. His base statistics might not suggest so, but he has also dominated the expected goals scene. This season, his line that consists of him, Noah Cates, and Bobby Brink has an expected goals for percentage of over 60. To put this in perspective, this ranks higher than many of the best lines in the entire NHL. He is one of the big difference makers on his line, and has made the rebuilding Flyers a more competitive team in the process.
Farabee doesn’t have the same level of talent around him as he did when he was younger, so he has had to come into his own as a player. He is now at the point where he can truly be one of the featured players on a line, and that makes him immensely valuable to the Flyers. Many of the team’s prospects from around the time he was drafted did not pan out, but he seems like an exception to this point.
It’s very early in his season, but his performance is less about his production and more about how he looks as a player. He is already the player that was likely envisioned when he was given his extension. He is only 23, and still has room for growth.
Projecting Farabee’s Future
It’s difficult to project what Farabee will be capable of as his career progresses, especially considering he was limited by injuries last season and is only now becoming one of the best players on the Flyers. If he is still on the team by the time the Flyers are done with their rebuild, he could see himself becoming a 70-point player over a full season. With players like Matvei Michkov and Cutter Gauthier in the system, he would have a lot of talent around him.
Whether or not Farabee stays in Philadelphia for the entirety of his contract is impossible to predict as of now. Assuming he does, it would be reasonable to expect 50-60 points out of him in an entire season in a middle-six role. If he were to move up to the first line, he could come closer to the aforementioned 70 points. Those aren’t superstar numbers by any means, but the Flyers would have surely taken that when they drafted him with the 14th overall pick in 2018.
Farabee should continue to be a great transitional, two-way player for the Flyers from here on out. Regression is certainly possible, but it finally feels as though he is coming into his own. A bounce back was needed, and it seems as though he is back on track in his NHL career.