There’s no going around it – the Buffalo Sabres are one of the leakiest teams in the NHL in the early goings of this season, especially at even strength. At 5-on-5, they have given up the ninth most goals in the league (29), though the underlying statistics send a somewhat different message, with Buffalo being slightly above average in terms of expected goals against per-60 minutes (xGA/60) at 2.53.
What this means is that their goaltending has been largely the reason for such a discrepancy between the number of goals expected to get past them and the actual number of goals against. As such, it’s reasonable to claim that the additions that Buffalo made over the offseason are paying dividends and that the returning Sabres’ players have had some defensive development between this season and last. No Sabres player has had more development on this side of the game than Tage Thompson.
5-on-5 Defense
The vast majority of any hockey game is played at 5-on-5, and Thompson’s underlying defensive statistics at this strength are dominant, both relative to teammates and to the entire NHL. Among the 11 Sabres skaters with at least 150 minutes of 5-on-5 play, Thompson ranks second (only to newcomer Jordan Greenway) in xGA/60. This means, that for every 60 minutes that Thompson is on the ice, opposing teams are expected to score just 2.16 goals. For comparison’s sake, the player with the worst xGA/60, Jeff Skinner, is expected to allow the opponent to score 3.18 times in the same timeframe.
His other defensive analytics are equally impressive. With the same parameters, Thompson ranks fourth on the team in scoring chances against per-60 (SCA/60). He ranks third in relative SCA/60 with a score of minus-1.55, meaning that the Sabres give up 1.55 fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes when he’s on the ice than they do when he’s not. On top of it all, Thompson starts his shifts in the defensive zone more often than any other player on this list outside of Henri Jokiharju. Considering this, the opposition should theoretically be able to muster up more scoring chances against Thompson than they would against other Sabres players. Still, Thompson’s defensive statistics stand strong relative to his teammates.
On a league-wide scale, the story is much of the same. Of 174 forwards with at least 150 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey, Thompson ranks 26nd in the league in xGA/60 and 36th in SCA/60. He is also the 25th most likely player to start in his own defensive zone. Despite this, out of the other top 24 players for defensive zone starts, Thompson ranks fifth in xGA/60 and sixth in SCA/60. Not only is he a defensive stalwart relative to other high time-on-ice (TOI) players, but he’s also a defensive stalwart among players whom coaches consider to be apt defensive forwards.
Penalty Killing
As if his 5-on-5 statistics weren’t enough to prove his capability on the backend, Thompson has been genuinely elite on the penalty kill. Among players with at least 20 minutes on the penalty kill, he ranks second in PK xGA/60 to Alex Tuch, who has half as much time on the penalty kill as Thompson. Not only that, but he is first by a large margin in expected goals for per-60 (xGF/60) on the penalty kill, meaning he’s actually providing a decent amount of offense on the penalty kill compared to the rest of the Sabres. He’s had an active stick on the PK and has been rewarded with legitimate scoring chances all season.
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Among all forwards in the NHL with at least 30 minutes of penalty killing time, Thompson sits at 10th in xGA/60 and fifth in xGF/60. It’s conservative to state that Thompson has been “good” killing penalties — he’s been one of the very best in the league this season. For a Sabres’ PK that desperately needed some stability, Thompson isn’t the player that anyone was looking towards to start the season, and yet he’s been the glue that has held their PK together.
Thompson’s Improvements From Years Prior
As I’ve alluded to, Thompson has never been considered a defense-oriented player. In fact, I would argue that most considered him as somewhat of a glass cannon — he’d provide incredible value on offense but allow a ton of chances in return. This season, though, the roles have somewhat reversed. His production is down compared to the past couple seasons, but he’s still a dynamo in the offensive zone. Where the true magic act has gone down is in his own zone.
I don’t think it’s fair to compare this season to his first three in Buffalo. He was too raw in 2018-19 to be properly judged, and the following two years were plagued with injuries. That leaves us with his 38-goal, 68-point campaign in 2021-22 and last season’s 47-goal, 94-point explosion. In neither of those seasons were his defensive impacts particularly impressive.
His xGA/60 last season — a season in which Thompson became somewhat of a household name — was 3.21, which not only is a full goal and change above his xGA/60 this season, but would rank last on the team in 2022-23. Two seasons ago, his xGA/60 was 2.83. The same goes for his SCA/60, which in the past two seasons has been 33.30 and 29.54, respectively. Other teams this season are generating over four fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes, a significant defensive upgrade in Thompson’s game.
Moving Forward
In all honesty, I’m not sure if this start is a sustainable one considering his track record and the somewhat small sample size. With that said, if Thompson can keep it up and truly has become a two-way monster, the Sabres are going to be much better off for years to come. It’s incredible that his defensive game has taken such strides early in the season, and if he wasn’t a household name already, this added feature to his game will bring him to superstardom.