Now one-third of the way through the season, the Maple Leafs find themselves in a solid, but competitive, position in the Atlantic Division standings. In this post, I’ll take a look at the current standings, with an attempt to dissect the performances of the Maple Leafs and their rivals.
What do the rankings suggest about the teams competing for a playoff spot?
The Top Five Teams in the Atlantic Division
The Boston Bruins lead the division with 43 points in 29 games. The Bruins are better than most expected at the start of the season. However, the Bruins seem to surprise season after season. Even when they lose key players, they seem able somehow to replace them and continue to win. This season, once again, as they always seem to do, they have been both consistent and effective over the first third of the season. Solid both at home and on the road, their goal differential (GF-GA) of +21 indicates that they are a well-rounded team that can score and defend effectively. No surprise.
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The Maple Leafs sit in second place with 38 points in 28 games. They are only five points behind the Bruins with a game in hand. This season, the Maple Leafs have scored 106 goals, boasting one of the most potent offenses in the league. Although it seems they’ve been winning and losing close games, the team does have a +16 goal differential. That said, seven of those goals came in Saturday’s blowout win over the Pittsburgh Penguins when Toronto beat the Penguins by a 7-0 score.
Sitting in third place (tied with the Maple Leafs in points) are the Florida Panthers (with 38 points after 30 games). However, the Maple Leafs have two games in hand. The Panthers have a solid record, with a goal differential of +12.
Perhaps the two surprises of the Atlantic Division are the Detroit Red Wings (with 34 points in 30 games) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (with 33 points in 32 games). The Red Wings sit in fourth place and carry a +12 goal differential. On the other hand, the Lightning are a point behind the Red Wings in fifth. However, Tampa Bay has played two games more than Detroit, and they carry a negative goal differential of -9. While the Lightning’s history suggests they are a tough opponent, the team’s current status in the Atlantic belies that belief.
The Bottom Three Atlantic Teams: Canadiens, Sabres, and Senators
The bottom three teams in the Atlantic are the Montreal Canadiens (in sixth place), the Buffalo Sabres (in seventh), and the Ottawa Senators (in eighth). The Canadiens are .500 on the season, with 30 points in 30 games. However, their goal differential of -20 is the worst in the division by far. They are facing defensive challenges that need to be addressed if they are to climb the standings.
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The Sabres have 29 points in 32 games. They are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team, sometimes beating strong opponents easily and then sometimes not showing up. They have a -15 goal differential.
Their statistics suggest that the Senators should be better than their record. After 26 games (the fewest played in the Atlantic), the Senators sit last with 22 points. They are also suffering through a four-game losing streak. However, one anomaly is that, while they have a record of 11-15-0, they have a goal differential of only -1. That compares favorably even to the Lightning.
Could the Maple Leafs Rise to the Top of the Division?
As always, the Atlantic is highly competitive, and the Bruins are setting the pace. The Maple Leafs and Panthers are the two other closest contending teams. Given these three top teams, the race to the division title promises to be close.
Specifically, the Maple Leafs’ offensive firepower positions them as strong contenders. Can they sneak up on the Bruins to vie for the division title? Several statistics suggest that Toronto might be in a position to do just that.
(Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)
First, for all the angst in the net, the Maple Leafs’ goal differential is more than respectable. The team has a potent offensive lineup (of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares). They can outscore opponents consistently.
As well, they have been consistent point producers. Over their past nine games, the team has picked up at least a point, and their 6-0-3 record in that span is the best in the division. Even when the Maple Leafs seem to struggle, they somehow pick up a point. That positions them well in the standings.
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Finally, the Maple Leafs have both a solid road record and a solid home record. The team’s 7-2-4 record on the road compares well to its 9-4-2 home record. Because successful teams perform well both at home and on the road, that also puts the Maple Leafs in a solid position to compete for the division title.
The Bottom Line for the Maple Leafs in the Atlantic Division
The Maple Leafs’ offensive strength, consistency in producing points, and ability to win both on the road and at home all contribute to their favorable position in the division. While there’s been a lot of concern this season, their record doesn’t bear out that deep issues will throw them off course or can’t be overcome.
Can the Maple Leafs win the Atlantic? That’s a question that will be played out over the next one-third of the season. So far for the Maple Leafs, the first one-third of the season hasn’t been perfect. However, the Maple Leafs are in a far better position than fans seem to believe they should be given how many close games the team has played.
The bottom line is that the Maple Leafs’ position in the Atlantic Division is far from dire. They are solidly in second place one-third of the way through the 2023-24 season.