Jacques Martin has been interim head coach of the Ottawa Senators for 10 games, and the cold-hard statistics say it hasn’t made any difference to the team’s performance. In fact, the numbers show the Senators have taken a step backward under Martin and his understudy, assistant coach Daniel Alfredsson. (all statistics quoted in this article are from Hockey Reference and statmuse.com)
The Senator’s former head coach, D.J. Smith, probably has too much class to say, “I told ya’ so.” Yet if he did, he’d be pointing out what should be blindingly obvious to Senators fans. At some point, a team is what its numbers say they are, and after 36 games, those numbers say the Senators are a bad hockey club. Firing Smith, as so many fans demanded earlier this season, changed nothing.
Now, I can already hear some readers protesting that it is not fair to judge Martin after such a short time behind the bench. Even so, his tenure as interim head coach is long enough that fans should see their team starting to turn things around. That’s just not happening.
Let’s take a look at how well the Senators have done under Martin in the 10 games he’s been running the bench in the hope of gaining some insight as to why the team continues to go nowhere.
Senators’ Points Percentage Is Worse Under Martin
The Senators have won just three of the 10 games they’ve played under the new coaching regime, registering a .389 points percentage (PTS%). Before Martin became bench boss on Dec. 18, they had notched a .423 PTS%. By this measure, the Senators have gotten worse under Martin.
| Senators PTS% at Jan. 10 | .389 |
| League Average PTS% | .553 |
| Senators’ Rank | 29th |
On Dec. 18, the Senators’ PTS% put them dead last in the Atlantic Division. They still are today. In fact, they are the worst team in the Eastern Conference as measured by PTS%, coming in even lower than the Columbus Blue Jackets with their woeful .427 PTS%.
At 29th in the NHL on PTS%, the Senators outrank only the lowly San Jose Sharks (.256), Chicago Blackhawks (.325) and Anaheim Ducks (.346). The brutal truth is that they are losing more games under Martin than they did under Smith.
Senators’ Goal Differential Deteriorates Under Martin
The difference between goals scored by a team and goals other teams score against them, or goal differential, can say a lot. For example, it may point to problems with a team’s offense or possibly poor defensive play – or both.
In the Senators’ case, their goal differential this season suggests they have arguably a reasonable offence but terrible defence. Yet that’s only become worse under Martin.
| Under Smith | Under Martin | |
| Games | 26 | 10 |
| Goal Differential | Minus One | Minus 11 |
| Rank | 16th | 24th |
On Dec. 18, the Senators could say they scored almost as many goals as they allowed, with a record of 88 goals for and 89 against over 26 games. That’s no longer true. Over Martin’s first 10 games behind the bench, they scored 31 goals and allowed 42. In round numbers, for every three goals they score, they allow four.
Senators’ Special Teams Remain Weak Under Martin
The Senators’ power play and penalty kill are its Achilles heel this season. Here’s how they stack up pre- and post-Martin.
| Under Smith | Under Martin | |
| Power Play | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| Power Play Rank | 23rd | 24th |
| Penalty Kill | 72.41 | 70.9 |
| Penalty Kill Rank | 29th | 31st |
Martin knew Ottawa’s special teams were weak when he took the job as interim head bench boss. Here’s what he had to say about them the day he was appointed bench boss.
That things on the penalty kill and power play have become worse under his direction is no doubt a source of frustration for him and his staff. He knows that the play of his special teams explains why the Senators are bottom dwellers at this point in the season.
Senators’ Goal Remains a Weak Spot Under Martin
Goaltending in Ottawa is a blazing dumpster fire. Here’s a look at key net minding measures under Smith versus what they are now under Martin.
| Under Smith | Under Martin | League Average | |
| Average Goals Against per Game (GAA) | 3.42 | 4.2 | 2.95 |
| Save Percentage (SV%) | .886 | .885 | .903 |
While poor by NHL standards, Ottawa’s goaltending is only marginally worse under Martin than it was under Smith as measured by SV%. Even so, what is striking is the number of times the Senators give up four goals or more in a game. There is simply no way that a team can give up four or more goals as often as the Senators do and expect to succeed in the NHL.
Related: Senators’ Goaltending Preventing Team’s Success
| Coach | Games Coached in 2023-24 | 2023-24 Games in Which Senators Allowed Four or More Goals |
| Smith | 26 | 14 (56%) |
| Martin | 10 | 7 (70%) |
Senators’ Leading Scorers Are Not Responding to Martin
It’s fair to say that the Senators’ leaders have not played better under Martin. Here’s a look at the average points production per game of the team’s top points getters as they were under Smith versus their performance under Martin.
| Player | Average Points per Game Under Smith 2023-24 | Average Points per Game Under Martin |
| Tim Stutzle | 1.12 | 0.50 |
| Claude Giroux | 0.96 | 0.70 |
| Drake Batherson | 0.88 | 0.80 |
| Brady Tkachuk | 0.81 | 0.90 |
| Jakob Chychrun | 0.81 | 0.50 |
| Mathieu Joseph | 0.73 | Not applicable due to injuries |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| Josh Norris | 0.62 | 0.40 |
| Jake Sanderson | 0.58 | 0.50 |
Except for Tkachuk, all of the Senators’ top eight points getters under Smith have seen lower points production under Martin thus far. The most striking decline is in Stutzle’s production. The star centre has registered just one assist in his last five games.
Stutzle is not alone in his misery. Together, Ottawa’s top eight goal scorers under Smith have notched just five goals between them in their last 10 games.
Glimmers of Hope for the Senators Under Martin?
It’s wins that count in the NHL. Moral victories count for nothing. Even so, some fans will take comfort in those meaningless triumphs, believing that they point to a brighter future for the Senators.
For example, even though they lost against the high-flying Edmonton Oilers 3-1 on Jan. 6, they managed to keep the game tight, limiting Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid to just one point between them. Ottawa netminder Anton Forsberg kept his team in the game, stopping 43 of 46 shots (a .934 SV% in case you’re interested). The Senators showed some tenacity, making it look like they wanted to win.
The team’s bottom six, especially winger Parker Kelly, have raised their stock, logging more ice time and providing much-needed grit, energy and determination to the Senators’ game. In his last five games, Kelly has marked up the score sheet with two goals. Ridly Greig brings a physical presence every time he is on the ice and has three points in his last five games.
Not only that, but Martin is holding players accountable. That was clear in the tongue-lashing he administered to Dominik Kubalik for being late on the backcheck during the Jan. 9 game against Calgary.
Yet it’s not just the lash Martin is using. He is often seen speaking to his young charges on the bench, giving them immediate feedback on their play. That’s something Smith was never noted for. Not only that, but he tries to show his players he trusts them, often sending them back out on the ice on the very next shift after they’ve made mistakes.
If Martin and his staff could point to just one or two things that needed to be corrected with the Senators, their fans could be hopeful that better days were ahead soon. However, with the Senators, there is a laundry list of problems that need addressing.
Except for a few players, the club seems to accept losing. On the whole, it’s as if they have no standard of what it means to be an Ottawa Senator. There is a lack of urgency and desperation in their game. They are bereft of the confidence and belief in themselves that winners have.
Sloppy play and turnovers plague them almost every night. They continue to have problems managing the puck – especially in their own zone. They are weak in the neutral zone, often turning over pucks and leaving wide gaps between their defence and oncoming rushes, allowing other teams easy entry into their zone.
Most teams can play five-on-five, including the Senators. Unfortunately, what sets the Senators apart from good teams is their penalty kill and power play. Until these are turned around, the Senators’ woes will only worsen.
Staios Needs to Appoint a Full-Time Head Coach
Perhaps the best thing Senators president of hockey operations and general manager Steve Staios can do at this point is quickly choose a permanent coach who can establish a standard in Ottawa and rid the franchise of its culture of losing.
Related: 5 Candidates to Replace Senators’ D.J. Smith if He’s Fired
That choice will determine whether the past seven years of a rebuild will see success in Ottawa, or rather, was all for naught. Stay tuned.