It’s one of the harder awards to settle on, but the Selke Trophy should be more open than ever since Patrice Bergeron retired last offseason. New Jersey Devils center Nico Hischier was a finalist last season, but it doesn’t appear that’ll be the case in 2023-24.
With Bergeron retired and Hischier not a candidate for the Selke, there’ll be some new faces in contention for the award as the NHL’s top defensive forward. Some of these names are unlikely to surprise you, but others may. Let’s look at who are the Selke front-runners approaching the All-Star Break.
Sam Reinhart
Sam Reinhart is having a career season offensively, but he’s also been playing quite well defensively. In addition to being on pace for 58 goals, he’s been one of the Florida Panthers’ best defensive forwards and one of the best league-wide.
Reinhart’s even-strength defense has been worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 4.5, which is close to matching his actual GAR of 5.3. That latter number places him in the top 10 of the league among all forwards in that statistic.
Related: 2023-24 Calder Trophy Tracker: March Update
It’s not just Reinhart’s even-strength play that makes him a Selke candidate, either. He’s one of the Panthers’ primary penalty killers, logging just over 145 minutes shorthanded this season, and has handled that ice time well.
And it’s not like Reinhart is playing easy minutes at five-on-five. Over 42 percent of his ice time has come against elite competition, which is slightly more than his teammate, Aleksander Barkov, who’s considered one of the top defensive forwards in the game. It’s rare to see a winger win the Selke or even finish in the top three, though Mitch Marner broke that trend a season ago. But Reinhart certainly has a case.
Nick Suzuki
Nick Suzuki has been an offensive black hole impact-wise this season, but his defensive performance has been terrific. His even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 4.8, ranked 11th among all forwards. His overall defensive game has also been worth an xGAR of 5.6, so he’s been quite valuable defensively.
Suzuki has played tough minutes, logging 42.8 percent of his ice time against elite competition. On a Montreal Canadiens team that’s been leaky defensively this season, he’s been one of their best shot suppressors, averaging 2.53 expected goals against per 60 minutes.
Even when not going up against elite competition, Suzuki has played against the middle of the lineup 34.9 percent of the time. The fact he’s putting up the defensive impacts he is on a team as porous defensively as the Canadiens is quite impressive, given his usage.
I think voters will look at where the Canadiens are in the standings and possibly shrug off how good Suzuki has been defensively. But he should at least be in the conversation for a top-five spot in the race and, frankly, the top three.
Jordan Staal
Jordan Staal’s offensive production may be declining, but he is still one of the best defensive forwards in the game. In fact, there’s good reason to believe that he has been the best defensive forward in the NHL this season and that he should be the front-runner for the Selke heading into the All-Star Break.
Staal’s even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 5.9, ranked fourth in the NHL among all forwards. He has an expected goals share (xG%) of 63.21 percent, and his defensive game is a significant reason for that. The Carolina Hurricanes are allowing next to nothing when he’s on the ice at five-on-five, giving up just 1.73 expected goals per 60 minutes.
The Hurricanes have been giving Staal some extreme usage, too. He’s played 46.5 percent of his minutes against elite competition and 34.7 percent against the middle of the lineup. Essentially, the Hurricanes are hard-matching him against teams’ top two lines whenever he’s on the ice. And his impacts in those minutes have been nothing short of superb:
It’ll be interesting to see how voters feel about Staal once the season concludes. If he keeps up the defensive stats he’s posting, he should be the favorite for the Selke Trophy. A couple of other Hurricanes forwards could find themselves as candidates. But since Staal is a center, he’ll likely receive the recognition.
Aleksander Barkov
Notoriously labeled as the most underrated forward in the NHL year in and year out (is he really that underrated if that’s the case), Barkov is having quite the season for the Panthers. Reinhart has played his part, but so has Barkov, who’s always had the stout two-way reputation.
Barkov’s all-around defensive game has been worth an actual GAR of 5.8, ranked sixth in the NHL for all forwards. He plays on the penalty kill, though he has logged less time shorthanded (about 121 minutes) than Reinhart.
When we first published this, Barkov’s defensive metrics weren’t otherworldly. That has changed, however, and he’s now looking like one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL this season. That certainly follows the reputation he’s garnered in his career.
I think what gives Barkov a legitimate chance at the Selke is he plays some difficult minutes, too. He’s played 42 percent of his minutes against elite competition and 38.6 percent against the middle of the lineup. That’s not easy ice time, and the Panthers have been better defensively with him on the ice compared to when he’s off. Voters will recognize that, and I’m sure he’ll get plenty of Selke votes this season.
Adam Lowry
Brandon Hagel was originally on this list, and while he’s still having a very good defensive season, Winnipeg Jets center Adam Lowry deserves some consideration. His actual defensive results are not as strong as his expected numbers, but those expected numbers are among the best in the NHL for forwards.
Lowry’s even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 6.3, tied for second league-wide for forwards with Philadelphia Flyers rookie Tyson Foerster. His overall defensive game has been worth an xGAR of 7.2, ranked third among forwards behind Jason Robertson and Teuvo Teravainen.
The Jets ask quite a bit of Lowry, too. He’s played 37.9 percent of his minutes against elite competition and 37.1 percent against the middle of the lineup. When looking at his RAPM chart, it shows he’s having a strong positive impact defensively at even strength:
I’m not sure how much Selke consideration Lowry will get, but he’s certainly been one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL this season. This is where it gets a bit tricky determining who can be part of the group, but he’s certainly played well enough to get recognition.
Honorable Mentions
Among the Hurricanes forwards who could receive Selke consideration are Jordan Martinook and Jack Drury. Martinook’s impacts and ice time against elite competition are nearly identical to Staal’s, while Drury’s strength has been his defensive game, specifically at even strength.
Jason Robertson is having an outstanding year defensively, but he doesn’t log the same difficult minutes that other forwards mentioned here have. Foerster and Hagel should also be in the Selke conversation. But my guess is they’ll be on the outside looking in, partly because they’re wingers, but also because other forwards have moved ahead of them.
Still, the fact these players have cases for the Selke should make it an interesting race during the stretch run. With Bergeron retired, it’s anyone’s game, and it wouldn’t take much for someone like Martinook or Hagel to receive more consideration when we update this post around a month from now.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Puck IQ