When general manager Kyle Dubas made his first big move with the Pittsburgh Penguins by bringing in defenseman Erik Karlsson in a trade with the San Jose Sharks (and Montreal Canadiens), the hope was that he would help bring another deep playoff push for an aging Penguins team.
But almost two-thirds of the way through the 2023-24 season, the Penguins find themselves out the outside looking in for a playoff spot (currently sitting nine points out of a wildcard spot) and are at a possible crossroads going forward. Tied in with the situation for the organization is the fact that Karlsson, the 2023 Norris Trophy winner for the NHL’s best defenseman has not been the player that many expected he would be as a Penguin. So the question is, does Dubas have buyer’s remorse with Karlsson?
Revisiting the Trade
When the three-team trade between the Penguins, Sharks, and Canadiens went down in August, it saw a total of nine players and three draft picks exchange hands. The Penguins gave up forwards Mikael Granlund (San Jose) and Nathan Legare (Montreal), defensemen Jeff Petry (Montreal), Jan Rutta (San Jose), and goaltender Casey DeSmith (Montreal). None of these players have lit the world on fire with their new teams, with both Petry and DeSmith being traded once again to different teams in Detroit and Vancouver, respectively.
In return, the Penguins acquired the 33-year-old Karlsson, forward Dillon Hamaliuk, and Rem Pitlick. The only player who has made a difference for the team has been Karlsson, as Pitlick was traded to Chicago, and Hamaliuk has spent the majority of the season in the ECHL with the Wheeling Nailers. The team also acquired a 2026 third-round pick from the Sharks as well.
But where the trade could end up getting dicy and questionable for Dubas is the fact that they also traded a 2024 first-round pick to the Sharks in the deal as well. The pick is a top-10 protected pick, meaning that if the Penguins find themselves with a top-10 selection this year, they keep the pick. If this ends up being the case, then the team will end up sending their 2025 first-round pick to the Sharks instead. But as of now, the Penguins find themselves projected to pick at number 13. As a team that finds themselves toward the bottom of the league’s farm system rankings by our own Logan Horn (27th), losing a first-round pick at all is a major hit to take.
Penguins and Karlsson Have Been Underwhelming
As the league’s oldest team at the start of the regular season (average age of 30.6), Dubas was banking on the fact that Karlsson could hopefully replicate or at least look like the player from last season that won the Norris Trophy and create a good dynamic with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, and the rest of the supporting cast that the team had in place already.
Related: Penguins’ Karlsson Trade Will Have Effects Now & in the Future
But that has not necessarily been the case this season, as there have been times when the group has looked like what many expected it would be but for the most part, has been underwhelming. Where it has really shown is in the form of the team’s power play success, or the lack thereof. With the aforementioned players mixed in with Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust, it was expected that both units would be able to have relatively solid success, but they have not been able to do so this season. The Penguins find themselves ranked 30th in the NHL on the power play with a 13.9% success rate. Karlsson had been known as a player who succeeded on the power play with 231 career power-play points in his career before coming to Pittsburgh, but has struggled on the man advantage this season.
Karlsson has also struggled defensively for the Penguins this season, while he has not necessarily been known as a top-tier defensive defenseman throughout his career. There have been several times that he has struggled in his zone, whether it be with making plays to clear the puck or having costly turnovers that lead to more zone time for the opposition.
Penguins Are in A Tight Spot
While Karlsson has recorded a total of 41 points, good for 14th among all defensemen this season, he has not been able to live up to the 10 million dollars that he is owed through the 2026-27 season by the Penguins. This, mixed with the lack of success by the rest of the team as well has put Dubas and the organization in a tough spot. With Guentzel being a pending free agent at season end, the Penguins have found themselves in a tight spot while trying to get an extension done for the 30-year-old forward. With the first-round pick that they will be losing either this year or next, they may very well look to trade Guentzel, who should have plenty of potential suitors, in hopes of landing a first-round pick once again to replace the lost one. Guentzel’s future with the Penguins remains a question mark as of now.
The trade that was made in hopes of one last big push for the Penguins core has not worked out the way that Dubas or the organization have hoped that it would and has the possibility to set them back in the near and distant future with the aging players they have reaching the back-nine of their careers and not having the prospects or assets to help carry the load when that time does come.