When Connor Bedard fractured his jaw on Jan. 5 and was forced to miss over a month of action, many pundits and those who cover the game thought this could be what cost him the Calder Trophy for Rookie of the Year.
Bedard, the 2023 No. 1 overall pick who, through the first three months of the season, looked every bit of the generational talent fans expected him to be, scored 15 goals and 18 assists for 33 points in his first 39 games, playing every shift on the top line and going up against the best players in the league on a nightly basis. He was so good that he was named the Chicago Blackhawks’ representative in the 2024 NHL All-Star Game before his injury.
But after Bedard missed 14 games in a six-week period, some think Brock Faber, the 21-year-old Minnesota Wild defenseman who, as of April 4, has 41 points (seven goals and 34 assists) and is averaging 25 minutes of ice time, should have the upper-hand in Calder Trophy voting.
Let’s take a look at the two and predict who will win the NHL’s 2023-24 Calder Trophy.
The Case for Brock Faber
Taken in the second round of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft by the Los Angeles Kings, Faber sat near the top of the Kings’ prospect pool for nearly two full seasons. But in June 2022, his NHL rights were traded by the Kings, along with a first-round pick in that year’s draft, to the Wild for Kevin Fiala.
You can recap how that trade turned out for both teams by reading this column from THW’s Michael Ostrower, but for now, let’s focus on Faber in Minnesota. As of April 4, his nightly average of 25 minutes of ice time is sixth in the entire league, a feat no less impressive when you consider the situation the Wild have put Faber in.
Captain Jared Spurgeon, a reliable veteran who’s spent his entire 14-year career with the Wild, has only played 16 games and been out of the lineup since Jan. 2. In the last five seasons, he has averaged nearly 22 minutes of ice time per night, so losing him has forced the team to scramble. Jonas Brodin, another veteran who’s spent his entire career in Minnesota, has been out for stretches of time throughout the season, missing 20 total games so far. A lot has been asked of Faber, but carrying the bulk of minutes for an NHL club as a No. 1 defenseman might be the biggest.
Here’s a neat stat from Sportsnet: during the time Bedard missed due to injury, Faber led all rookies in scoring with 17 points in 16 games. A small sample size, of course, but anytime a defenseman can be a point-per-game player in a span that’s nearly a fifth of the season, that’s fantastic.
My THW colleague Mariah Stark (Holland) covers the Wild and she had this great blurb in her April 2 piece on the Minnesota rookies:
He’s made some small mistakes expected from a first-year player, but he’s shown the ability to learn from those mistakes. Sometimes, he can even fix it himself before it ends up as a goal against his team. However, he’s not only great on defense but also impressive on offense, with 41 points so far this season, 34 of which are assists.
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I’ve watched a fair share of Wild games this season, either because they’re playing the Blackhawks or because Law & Order was a rerun that night, and every time I have, Faber has done two or three things that make him look like a wise, old veteran. Whether it’s a first pass, a perfectly timed poke check, clearing someone in front of the net or just simple, high-IQ hockey, he’s doing it.
When you consider that no other defenseman on the club averages more than 20 minutes per game, you start to appreciate what Faber means to this club. With power play, penalty kill, and assignments against the other team’s top lines, it’s one of the most impressive single-season performances by a rookie defenseman in modern league history.
The Case for Connor Bedard
This is more my bread and butter. We mentioned that Bedard had 33 points in 39 games before the injury, and I was curious to see how he would respond once he came back. So far, he’s looked even better. As of April 4, in the 22 games since his return, Bedard has 25 points (six goals and 19 assists), 11 of those coming on the power play.
Take it a step further: the Blackhawks’ power play was among the worst in the league for most of the season, anywhere from No. 31 to No. 32. Since Bedard’s return, he’s got them all the way up to … No. 28 in the league. A small increase, but an increase, no doubt.
On April 2, Bedard was named Rookie of the Month for March after leading all first-year players with 17 points (four goals, 13 assists) in 14 games. As mentioned by NBC Sports Chicago’s Charlie Roumeliotis, it’s the third time in 2023-24 that Bedard was named Rookie of the Month, having won in November and December. He became the first player to win it three times since Connor McDavid did so in 2015-16.
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To be the first person to do something since a three-time Hart Trophy winner is no small feat. But that’s the thing with Bedard: nothing seems small, even the small things. With the crisp passes in the neutral zone and the smart dump-and-changes he makes, Bedard plays like someone in their 30s while only being 18.
At this pace, there’s a case to be made that Bedard could have been an 80-point player if he stayed healthy, scoring at a near-point-per-game pace. With numbers like that, how couldn’t the Calder Trophy voters take notice?
The Decision: Bedard Will Win the Calder Trophy
Credit to Faber for making it a contest while Bedard was away, but in reality, it’s no contest: Bedard will win the Calder Trophy. By sheer numbers alone, it was always going to be Bedard’s trophy to lose, and the narrative of a hot-shot No. 1 talent taking over the Windy City and launching the comeback of an Original Six franchise is too sexy of a narrative to pass up on.
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And let’s be frank: defensemen never get the love they deserve for awards. The last time a blueliner won the Hart Trophy for most valuable player was Chris Pronger in 1999-00, and only four defensemen have won the Calder Trophy since Barret Jackman did it in 2002-03.
There’s no doubt that Faber will be among the game’s best in a short amount of time, and soon we could see him be nominated for a Norris Trophy, among the likes of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. But in 2023-24, a season with lots of scoring and young players taking over the game, it’s the next superstar who will likely be named its best rookie.