There has been much discussion about whether Nick Robertson should be in the Toronto Maple Leafs lineup when the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs begin. Before that discussion, let’s look at Robertson’s career thus far.
Nick Robertson’s Growth With the Maple Leafs
Robertson has been in the Maple Leafs organization since he was drafted 52nd in the second round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. That’s five years. However, before the 2023-24 season, Robertson had only played 35 games with the Maple Leafs and 57 games with the American Hockey League (AHL) Toronto Marlies over four seasons. He had missed more games than he had played due to numerous injuries. For example, during the 2022/23 season, he only played 15 games with the Maple Leafs and two with the Marlies.
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At the beginning of the 2023-24 season, Robertson’s main goal was to get through the season without getting hurt. From the team’s perspective, they needed to figure out what they had in Robertson. His entry-level contract is due to expire at the end of this season, and his waiver exemption will also end. Robertson needed to prove to the Maple Leafs that he could stay healthy and belong in the NHL.
Regarding health issues, Robertson has been injury-free this season. He’s played 53 games with the big team and nine games in the AHL. In the 53 games Robertson has played, he has scored 13 goals and added 12 assists for 25 points. He has done that while averaging only 11:20 TOI per game.
Would Robertson Score More If He Played More?
If we project his goals and points over an 82-game season, it works out to 20 goals and 19 assists for a total of 39 points. That doesn’t take into consideration his low ice time. A middle-six forward usually averages around 15 minutes per game. That’s 24% more ice time than Robertson has averaged this season. Sometimes, more ice time means more difficult ice time, so you can’t say if a certain player were to get X amount of additional ice time, he would score X amount of points. However, we could speculate that if Robertson averaged 15 minutes per game, he could score 25 goals and 48 points per season.
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If the main questions that Robertson needed to answer were whether he could stay healthy and belonged in the NHL, the answer is a resounding “Yes” to both questions.
What About Robertson’s Place in the Upcoming Postseason?
Getting back to the question about his role in the playoffs. Like it or not, one other factor needs to be considered. Unlike his brother Jason, who is 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, Nick has not been blessed with size. He is only 5-foot-9 and 175 pounds. While Nick has stayed healthy for a regular season, he still has to prove that he can do that when the going gets rougher in the playoffs. There is also the perception, be it right or wrong, that a smaller, lighter player can be a liability defensively. Robertson needs to overcome whatever negative perceptions there are regarding smaller players. We know he can score, but can he defend?
So, what can fans expect for Game One of the playoffs? We guess that he will not be in the Game One lineup. Instead, we believe the Maple Leafs will put as much size and physicality into the lineup as possible for the first game against the Florida Panthers. If anyone has pushing around to do, the Maple Leafs want to be the pushers, not the ones being pushed. There’s also some payback for Matthew Knies being roughed up behind the net by Florida’s Sam Bennett in last season’s second round.
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That’s not to say Robertson won’t find his way into the lineup in the postseason. The Stanley Cup playoffs are the toughest grind of all professional sports. A healthy player who can create offense may sometimes be needed. If the Maple Leafs go deep into the postseason, we would be surprised if Robertson does not get a chance to play at some point.
What Happens with Robertson After This Season?
What about Robertson and his future beyond this season?
The Maple Leafs are going to have a serious cap crunch next season. With William Nylander’s and Auston Matthews’ new deals kicking in and John Tavares’ and Mitch Marner’s deals having one more year to go, the Maple Leafs will need players like Robertson in their lineup. Robertson is an RFA without arbitration rights. Toronto holds the cards when negotiating Robertson’s next deal.
With his past and potential to consider, we can see Robertson signing a one- or possibly two-year “show me” deal with the Maple Leafs. That would also help the Maple Leafs with their cap situation for the 2025-26 season.
If the Maple Leafs and Robertson play their cards right, Robertson could become an important player for the franchise. That said, he might become trade bait if the franchise doesn’t believe he can improve his 200-foot game.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]