The Edmonton Oilers now know their first-round opponent in the 2023-24 NHL playoffs. For the third consecutive season, it will be the Oilers vs. the Los Angeles Kings and while the Oilers have the edge on paper, there are some tough decisions ahead. A similar team to last season, there are some minor differences on this Oilers roster, not the least of which is a rookie head coach who will have some roster choices to make.
Looking at the forwards, defense, and goaltending, let’s project who starts and who sits.
The Stuart Skinner Show in Goal
Stuart Skinner will get the start for the Oilers. Hopefully, he’s not rattled by a four-goal outburst from the Colorado Avalanche in the final game of the season and gets off to a hot start, putting up better numbers than the 3.68 goals against average (GAA) along with a .883 save percentage (SV%) he posted last season. He’ll be backed up by Calvin Pickard, with Jack Campbell likely only getting a call if there is an injury concern.
The Oilers will go as far as Skinner takes them. Pickard is capable and he’s had a great regular season, but if Skinner isn’t on his game, it will be a long series for the Oilers. Skinner is good enough to be the backstop Edmonton needs. He just needs to remain steady and his defense needs to help him out more than they did in the first period on Thursday. Another year of experience is his best weapon.
The Blue Line Is Set
The Oilers’ defense is pretty well set in stone. Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard have been the Oilers’ best pairing by a mile. Both are having career seasons and they’ll get the most minutes. Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci will be another pair. If they can be effective, that will go a long way in determining how easily the Oilers handle the Kings. Vincent Desharnais and Brett Kulak will make up the third pairing, with Troy Stecher and Philip Broberg likely the seventh and eighth options.
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If there’s one change, it might be how much Desharnais factors into everything. If he’s playing well, the Oilers may run him out there a bit more. He’s earned the look with his play during the regular season. He may slot in should the pairing of Ceci and Nurse look overwhelmed.
The Offense Is Where the Real Questions Are
It’s the forward group where Knoblauch has to make some tougher choices. There is more depth in this group than last season and the forwards are more interchangeable than ever before. That’s a huge plus, but it could come with side effects, the most dangerous of which would be tinkering too often.
First, finding the right combinations in the top six will be a challenge. Resisting overplaying Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl too much, will the coach roll them out together or keep them apart except for the power play and crucial moments? If apart, who plays with them? Does Adam Henrique get the winger minutes? Is he a third-line center?
From there, how long of a leash do players like Evander Kane, Connor Brown, and Ryan McLeod, among others have? These are players that need to be effective and produce. If they aren’t, the Oilers have depth on the roster that will be chomping at the bit to get in. Can Kane find that physical edge despite sitting several games down the stretch with a bit of a nagging issue? How quickly is he replaced by someone like Warren Foegele? Foegele has looked extremely effective down the stretch.
Finally, who sits in the bottom six? Does Dylan Holloway find a spot in the opening night roster? He’s earned consideration. But, if you sit him, who comes out?
My best guess is that Sam Carrick and Sam Gagner sit and the Oilers run with 13 forwards. There will be some pressure to play the guy that the Oilers traded for at the deadline, but Ryan is an effective and versatile 13th forward. The Oilers likely also run with six defensemen.