The New York Islanders didn’t come out on top in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series against the Carolina Hurricanes – but it’s far from over.
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Fans might have been pessimistic (and rightfully so) after their team went down 1-0 early in the first against their opponent, who are the favorites in the series. However, the Islanders did not back down and knotted up the score before intermission. The second period was pretty impressive, as the blue and orange controlled 56.33 percent of the expected goal share, according to Natural Stat Trick. However, they weren’t rewarded, and the Hurricanes’ depth proved to be too much for the Islanders to handle in the third period.
Islanders’ Odds to Win
There are many positives to take from this game and winning the opener doesn’t always mean a series win.
In the last six postseasons, teams that have lost Game 1 have come back to win a series 17 out of 48 times, according to data compiled by sports analysis website US Gamblers. That’s a winning percentage of 35 percent.
Also, dropping the first two games won’t necessarily spell the end for the Islanders. In last year’s post-season, the New York Rangers had a 2-0 lead against the New Jersey Devils but lost the series in seven. Plus, the Boston Bruins blew a 3-1 series lead to the Florida Panthers, a year ago.
Fans will remember that they’ve been on the wrong side of winning Game 1 in recent history. The most painful one was losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games in 2021. The Islanders won Game 1 in that series, and we all know the rest. If New York can win one of the next two games, they will have a realistic chance of advancing to round two.
What Islanders Must Improve
While losing Game 1 isn’t ideal, the Islanders are alive. But there are a few things they must do to pull off the upset against the favored Hurricanes. Most importantly, they cannot lose the goaltending battle.
The Hurricanes don’t have many holes in their lineup. The Raleigh-based club ranks in the top two in special teams and five-on-five expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick, meaning they are going to get their chances, and Semyon Varlamov or Ilya Sorokin (if called upon) need to be ready. Game 1 was not good enough for Varlamov. He was bested by Frederik Andersen, who allowed just one goal on 34 shots. Sure, the Islanders didn’t give the Russian goaltender much goal support – but the first goal allowed on the short side to Evgeny Kuznetsov can’t go in. The series will end in a sweep if that continues, but expect it to change.
Another important element is staying out of the penalty box. Putting the worst-ranked penalty kill unit against the second-best regular season power play isn’t ideal. Game 1 won’t be the last time seeing the Islanders in the box, but they can’t afford to take five penalties over 60 minutes, and their goalies need to come up with some big saves when it happens. it would also be nice if the team in front of their netminder could kill off a penalty with ease, which we saw a couple of times in Game 1
Plus, the Islanders will need more from their top players. This includes Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat. While the Hurricanes might out-match New York on every line, Barzal is arguably the most talented player on the ice, as his speed through the neutral zone can be a difference-maker. But in Game 1, the former first-round pick was out-attempted 22-19 at even strength. Also, Kyle Palmieri, who scored 30 goals in the regular season, was outshot 19-12 at five-on-five.
It’s a winnable series for the Islanders – but multiple aspects need to improve. Expect the Hurricanes and their coaching staff to adapt after they were outplayed for a significant stretch on Saturday. The series opener wasn’t their best game, and they know it. But if Game 1 is a taste of what the Islanders will bring moving forward, it will be a good series.