The first round has been one-sided between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Islanders. The Hurricanes took the first game 3-1 and then overcame a 3-0 deficit to win 5-3 to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. A rematch of last season’s series is looking more or less the same, only the Islanders look further away from contention.
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With the Islanders’ backs to the wall, they will turn to Ilya Sorokin for Game 3. Semyon Varlamov unraveled in the previous game, allowing four goals in the final two periods of play, and it makes a change something that is much-needed. The problem for the Islanders is that Sorokin, while elite, can only do so much. The bet isn’t that a goaltender who had a down season can suddenly turn on the switch, that can happen, but it’s that he can somehow stop an unstoppable force in the Hurricanes, a team moving full steam ahead to the Stanley Cup Final.
Sorokin Can Return to Form
It’s easy to forget what an elite version of Sorokin looks like. Last season, the Islanders saw it multiple times, including in the first round where he was the reason they pushed the series to six games. Speaking of last season, he had a .924 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.34 goals-against average (GAA) on 1,838 shots with 36.0 goals saved above average (GSAA) and it made him a Vezina Trophy finalist.
The Islanders can bet on the past for their future success, especially down in the series by two games. However, they can bank on Sorokin having at least one lights-out performance. He’s talented enough to do it and he’ll enter Game 3 particularly, well-rested. He was overworked earlier in the season, forcing the team to roll with Varlamov down the stretch. For the first time in a long time, he’ll be sharp and ready to go in the net and it gives the Islanders an advantage.
Sorokin can play well in Game 3 or Game 4 to give the Islanders a win, but they need four and must flip the momentum completely. The problem is that they have to do that against a Hurricanes team that has everything going in their favor.
The Reality Is the Hurricanes Are the Better Team
The past two games have been a reminder that the Hurricanes are in a different tier than the Islanders. The Islanders, while good enough to make the playoffs, are just that. They can make the playoffs but not go further than that. The Hurricanes on the other hand proved throughout the season that they are a team capable of competing for the Cup. They were close last season, losing to the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final, and entered the playoffs as a better team with little to no weakness.
The Hurricanes have outplayed the Islanders and that won’t change with a goaltending change. They’ve controlled this series in part because their roster has little to no weakness while the Islanders have a few, notably with a lack of depth and defensive errors. The Hurricanes also have made this series one-sided in part because they continued to add to their roster to put them over the top.
At the trade deadline, the Hurricanes added Jake Guentzel and Evgeny Kuznetsov, two forwards who sent the message to the team and the fanbase that they were going all-in with the hopes of winning the Cup. Those two skaters have scored two goals and two assists in the series thus far, while the Islanders’ trade deadline additions have added zero goals. The Islanders didn’t make any trade deadline moves and that’s the point. They refused to add to a roster with a low ceiling and it’s showing in a one-sided series.
How the Islanders Can Help Out Goaltending
The underlying on-ice issue is that the ice has been tilted. The Islanders are keeping the puck in their zone and allowing the Hurricanes to both maintain possession and generate effective shots on the net. Varlamov could only do so much when he faced 63 shots in two games.
Even worse, the Islanders sat back and played with an overconfident style in Game 2. They jumped out to a three-goal lead and took their foot off the gas for the rest of the game. The Hurricanes aren’t the type of team to do that against and the final result explained why.
The Islanders head back to UBS Arena in a desperate need to seize the momentum of the series. If they have an early lead, they not only must close things out, they must run up the score. Game 2 was a reminder that no lead is safe and this series will only be close if the Islanders play every shift like it’s one where they must score.
The goaltending change has already happened but the irony is that the issues are all over the ice. Head coach Patrick Roy is sending the message that he’s switching the goaltender because it’s too hard to switch the majority of the skaters. The hope is that the roster will respond with strong play on their home ice in two games this team must have.