Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes had high hopes when he traded for Justin Barron. Seeing what Barron could be rather than what he was, Hughes decided to pull the trigger and sacrificed Artturi Lehkonen to get the right-shot defenseman. Over two years later, “the Warrior” as they call Lehkonen in Colorado, has become an integral part of the Avalanche’s attack. He currently skates on their second line and has eight points in six playoff games after recording 34 in 45-regular season games. Meanwhile, Barron has been struggling to grow into the defenseman Hughes thought he could be. Last season, Barron played 32 games in the American Hockey League (AHL) and 48 with the Canadiens. Had it not been for the Habs’ injury troubles, he wouldn’t have played so many games in the NHL.
Come July 1, Barron will be a restricted free agent and Hughes will have to decide what to do with him. Next season, he will have to clear waivers to be assigned to the Laval Rocket, and Hughes will not want to lose him for nothing. After all, we’re talking about the man who kept three goaltenders on the roster all season so no team could claim Cayden Primeau.
In his first full season with the organization in 2022-2023, Barron played 39 NHL games, in which he produced 15 points. This season, he managed 13 points in 48 games. That’s a modest production, but his defensive game has improved. He learned a lot in the AHL, but there are still a lot of unknowns about him, so I can’t see him getting a long-term contract, I believe he will be signed to a bridge deal.
The Habs have an abundance of top blue-line prospects, and Hughes is expected to use some of those blueliners to get some forward talent capable of producing offensively. But I doubt Barron could be used for that, as his value has never been lower. When he was first appointed as Canadiens’ GM Hughes said:
To give an example, I find analytics are very important, to have information. The question becomes how do we use that information? Do we use that information solely to make decisions on players? Or do we use that information to ask with our development team that, knowing this data, can we take it and use it to improve the player, or can we use it to determine that the player isn’t good anymore? I remember, a long time ago when Ron Hextall was in Philadelphia, he told me, ‘We are in the business of buying high and selling low.’ So, what can we do to avoid that approach?
– from ‘What we learned about new Canadiens GM Kent Hughes and how he plans to change the team for the better,’ The Athletic, January 19, 2022.
It’s, therefore, safe to say the Canadiens will do their best to work with Barron to help him improve and also to gain some value on the market. Hughes always aim to sell high and buy low, unlike what Hextall did in Philadelphia.
If Hughes doesn’t want to sell right now, he’s better off giving Barron a bridge deal with a modest raise, making him more attractive as an asset for potential trade partners.
Comparable Contracts for Barron
CapFriendly references Riley Stillman, Dyson Mayo, Alexandre Carrier, and Jonathan Kovacevic’s contracts as possible guides to establishing the value of Barron’s next deal.
Riley Stillman, a fourth-round pick by the Florida Panthers, signed an entry-level contract (ELC) with an annual average value (AAV) of $900,000. Afterwards, he was signed to a three-year contract with an $1,35 million AAV. By the end of his ELC, he had played 42 NHL games and had five points. Still, he got a $450,000 raise on his next contract.
Dyson Mayo, a fifth-round pick of the now-inactive Arizona Coyotes, signed a three-year ELC with a $798,333 AAV. He then signed a one-year contract with a $715,000 AAV, a $83,333 pay cut. However, he spent the entirety of his ELC in the AHL, meaning he got no points in the NHL.
Carrier, a fourth-round pick by the Nashville Predators, signed an ELC with a $691,666 AAV followed by a three-year extension with a modest raise to $733,333 AAV. At the end of his ELC, he had only played 23 NHL games with three points.
As for Kovacevic, he signed a two-year ELC with an AAV of $925,000. By the end of this first contract, he hadn’t player a single game in the NHL, mostly because COVID-19 hit and shortened a couple of seasons. He was signed to a one-year extension with a $750,000 AAV before the 2021-2022 season. He featured in four games with the Winnipeg Jets and was kept off the scoresheet. The Jets then offered him a three-year deal with a $766,667 AAV, but he didn’t play a single game before being claimed on waivers by the Canadiens. In Montreal, he played 77 games with 15 points in his first year, and 13 points in 63 games the following season.
So, what is Barron worth?
Canadiens Need to Establish a Salary Structure on the Blue Line
Barron’s ELC AAV was worth roughly $1.15 million, and he played in 94 NHL games over the three years of his contract. In those three seasons, he gathered 30 points. These negotiations won’t be easy, however, because even though the organization believes Barron has yet to reach his potential, he still produces offensively.
The other factor to consider is how much Hughes can afford to give Barron when Arber Xhekaj also needs a new contract. Next season, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, and Jayden Struble will also need new deals. In other words, Xhekaj and Barron’s contracts will be the first pieces of a much larger puzzle.
Related: Canadiens Face Critical Negotiations with Restricted Free Agent Arber Xhekaj
Xekaj has played 95 games in the NHL during his ELC producing 23 points. He’s also been used on the second power-play unit and is a force to be reckoned with physically. Xhekaj doesn’t shy away from confrontations and protects his teammates and his presence alone is a warning to opponents to behave. He hasn’t finished developing either and will likely want more ice time in the future.
In other words, it seems obvious that Hughes will want to deal with Xhekaj first and start establishing a salary structure on defense, just as he has with the forwards — Nick Suzuki has the highest contract and no other forward can earn more than he does. Of course, Xhejaj won’t be the highest-paid defenseman, but it will still set a number that Barron’s deal should not exceed. In short, Xhekaj should be signed first as he should earn more than Barron. At the end of next season, Guhle should be signed to a contract worth more than Xhekaj and perhaps, if Lane Hutson’s development goes as planed, he will be the highest-paid player on the blue line. For now, Barron should be offered a two-to-three year bridge deal; considering Stillman got a $450,000 raise, I would offer Barron $600,000 raise and offer him a contract with a $1,758,300 AAV. We’ll find out later this summer if Hughes’ evaluation is close to mine. Whatever happens though, Hughes will definitely want to sign him.