After back-to-back 95-plus point seasons, Mitch Marner entered 2023-24 with hopes of eclipsing the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. Playing alongside 69-goal scorer Auston Matthews certainly helped elevate those hopes, but injuries limited him to 69 games and he didn’t hit triple-digits. In the post-season, many disgruntled Toronto Maple Leafs fans pointed a significant amount of blame on the series loss against the Bruins on Marner’s “disappointing” playoff run, citing him as a soft player who cannot perform in the playoffs.
Regular Season
While the point production was there for Marner — he paced for 100 points for the third consecutive season — his underlying metrics took a significant hit from what they had been in previous years. At 5v5, his expected goals share (xGF%) of 52.89% was the lowest in his career since 2018-19, and especially low in comparison to his previous three seasons (55.22%, 61.84%, and 57.51%, respectively). His high-danger chance share (HDCF%) fell off significantly from the last three seasons as well, dropping to 54.61%, much lower than the 56.03%, 62.42%, and 60.90% he had in those respective campaigns.
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His rate stats pose an interesting, yet unsurprising conclusion to his season — offence remained a constant from prior seasons, but his defensive game lacked severely in comparison. When Marner was on the ice, the Maple Leafs generated 2.86 expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60), which, though slightly lower than last season, is about on par for his career numbers. Defensively, though, the Maple Leafs surrendered 2.55 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), the second-highest mark of his career. Having normally floated around the 2.1-2.3 xGA/60 range, he clearly wasn’t his usual self defensively in 2023-24. Individually, Marner was still the same player. His 0.95 5v5 goals per 60 minutes were the third-highest of his career, and he had more 5v5 shot attempts per 60 minutes than he ever had (15.68). He was disciplined once again, with just 18 penalty minutes (PIM) on the season.
Still, regardless of the metrics, Marner put together an 85-point campaign in just 69 games. He continued his regular-season legacy as one of the best forwards in recent Maple Leafs history and hoped to extend that success into the playoffs.
2023-24 regular season grade: B
Playoffs
Unfortunately, his first-round performance against the Bruins, much like the Maple Leafs’ overall play, was disappointing, especially so considering his prior track record. He put up just three points — one goal and two assists — in the seven Round 1 games, substantially lower than the near-point-per-game pace he’d laid out in his previous 50 playoff games. His xGF% barely sat above 50%, which is jarring considering that he had eclipsed 60% in three of the previous four playoff runs. Not only was his xGA/60 of 2.5 the worst mark of his postseason career, but his xGF/60 was the lowest of his last four postseasons. Individual metrics worsened and, for the first time in his career, he didn’t register a single point on the power play in the playoffs.
The frustration of the Maple Leafs’ top dogs boiled over in a bench argument between the team’s three best players in Game 4. Marner took the brunt of the heat from teammate and fellow star William Nylander after he had expressed frustration with Matthews on the bench about a previous play. Still, as anger-inducing as the first round was for Marner and the Maple Leafs, it is important to note that he didn’t get outplayed at 5v5 in the series — it was just abysmal in comparison to what we’ve become accustomed to.
2024 playoffs grade: C-
Marner’s Future with Maple Leafs Uncertain
Since his lackluster playoff performance, many rumours have swirled about his future with the organization. In fact, one hockey pundit claims that there is a “5% chance” that the star winger remains on the team through the off-season. With big changes to the Maple Leafs coming, including a new coach historically opposed to a finesse-centric system, Marner has likely played his last season in Toronto. However, they should fetch a massive return considering his track record as one of the league’s most skilled players.
