The Conference Finals haven’t even started yet, but we had a trade today between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Nashville Predators. Those don’t happen before the playoffs conclude all too often, but it’s an important one that has implications for both teams’ offseasons. Early this afternoon, the Lightning announced they had re-acquired Ryan McDonagh and a mid-round pick from the Predators in exchange for a couple of draft picks:
One of the Lightning’s needs this offseason was stabilizing the left side of their defense. McDonagh may not be what he used to be, but he’s still quite good (it also helps they’re plenty familiar with him). Meanwhile, what does Predators general manager Barry Trotz have up his sleeve? Let’s grade each side of this deal.
Lightning Bring Back a Familiar Face
Lightning fans will be familiar with McDonagh, as he was a key part in helping them reach three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals, coming away with two championships. They had to deal him for cap reasons two offseasons ago, but it didn’t take long for them to bring him back into the mix.
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McDonagh had a solid season with the Predators, totaling 32 points in 74 games. His underlying numbers were good, as he posted an expected goals share (xG%) of 56.59 percent, one of the top marks on the Predators. He was one of their top shot suppressors, averaging 2.36 expected goals against per 60 minutes when on the ice.
McDonagh wasn’t great in transition, but he still did well to create offense from the back end. Part of that may be because of the offensive system that the Predators play under head coach Andrew Brunette. But even then, his passing graded out pretty well in Corey Sznajder’s tracked data, which you can see in the graphic below.
As expected with McDonagh, his defensive game was sound, as he defended the rush well. His entry denial rate ranked in the 87th percentile, and he was excellent at puck retrievals when opponents decided to play dump and chase. There’s plenty to suggest McDonagh has some gas left in the tank:
McDonagh has two years left on his contract at a cap hit of $6.75 million, so the Lightning are getting someone with some team control. There’s no doubt he’ll help, but how does acquiring his contract affect GM Julien BriseBois’ offseason plans?
Steven Stamkos will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1 if he doesn’t re-sign with the Lightning. Do they still have the room to fit him in after acquiring McDonagh? They only project to have $5.035 million in cap space after the trade, so BriseBois will once again have to get creative with the salary cap to bring back Stamkos.
Otherwise, this is a fine enough addition for the Lightning. They addressed a need with someone they’re familiar with and won’t have to dive into the free-agent pool, where there aren’t many quality left-shot defensemen available.
Lightning Grade: B
Predators Ready to Go Big Game Hunting?
Mr. Trotz, what plans do you have for the offseason? It’s easy to see what the Predators and Trotz set out to accomplish with this trade. They wanted to clear cap space. They will need to add a couple of defensemen, but they now have plenty of cap space to work with after shedding McDonagh’s $6.75 million cap hit.
The Predators’ cap space now sits just above $26 million. Trotz has stated multiple times since taking over as GM that he wants to add some skill and scoring to the lineup. Does that mean diving into free agency for a Stamkos or Jonathan Marchessault if they make it to July 1? Or will he look to make a splash on the trade market for someone like Mitch Marner if the Toronto Maple Leafs move him?
Whatever it is, I love this deal for the Predators. Cap space is the most valuable asset a GM has at his disposal. Once it’s gone, you lose that flexibility. Trotz has now placed the Predators in a spot to make some big-time additions this offseason, and it’ll be interesting to see what’s in store over the next couple of months.
Predators Grade: A
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
