The Philadelphia Flyers have a massive decision looming this offseason. 27-year-old winger Travis Konecny is eligible for an extension starting July 1, and it could be a big one. He is probably going to want an eight-year contract, seeing as many other players his age have gotten the same.
Regardless of how much money Konecny earns on said contract, that’s where the discussions should stop. Whether he signs a team-friendly deal for around $7 million or goes for the higher end at $8-9 million, the Flyers should not even entertain the idea of a long-term extension. Unless a short-term deal can be reached, it would be a bad choice for them to give him a big contract. While he is a fun and impactful player today, the same might not be true down the line.
Konecny Is Only Valuable in Transition
The biggest issue with Konecny comes with his identity as a player. In the present, he is immensely valuable to the Flyers as a scorer. He is dominant on the rush, hitting goaltenders with his classic low glove-side shot that goes in the net seemingly every time. While this is great and all now, it poses a big question for the future: how long will this last?
When Konecny didn’t have his rush scoring to fall back on, he wasn’t providing much of anything. When the effects of head coach John Tortorella‘s grueling play style began to set in for many players of the Orange and Black, it arguably hit Konecny the hardest. From the time the Flyers’ nine-game losing streak started on March 24 through the end of the season, he had just three goals and four assists for seven points in 11 games.
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That might not seem all that bad, but Konecny had 4.04 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) at even strength, which was the fourth-worst mark on the team in that span. The Flyers weren’t getting looks on the rush, so he was more or less an on-ice liability. The best players are able to lean on their talent even when they are tired; Konecny was not.
This outcome wasn’t exactly unpredictable. All season long, Konecny’s scoring during established offensive-zone possessions was practically non-existent. Of his 33 goals, just nine of them weren’t scored on the rush. Seeing as 72.7 percent of his goal-scoring output was in these scenarios, it’s really not surprising that his offense faded when the team was gassed. Furthering this point was the fact that he had just nine power-play points out of his 68 total despite playing a team-leading 227 minutes on the man advantage.
Why is this all important? Well, by the time players reach a certain age, their seamless ability to dominate on the rush diminishes over time. The great forwards usually have something to fall back on, such as their elite hockey IQ, passing ability, two-way play, or anything else — these things essentially never fade. Konecny has exactly zero of these traits, however. If he loses his legs soon enough, there might not be much use for him in an NHL lineup. A very similar fate happened to Cam Atkinson in 2023-24 — the Flyers saw in real-time what giving out long-term extensions to rush-reliant players looks like.
Konecny could still be a good player by the time he is in his 30s, but the point is that it’s not very likely. This becomes a little more apparent when looking at which players at that age are good and which ones are not. Unfortunately, Konecny falls in the latter category.
The best forwards in the NHL aged 35 and up (which Konecny would be by the end of an eight-year deal) are Sidney Crosby, Brad Marchand, Claude Giroux, Mats Zuccarello, Anze Kopitar, and Joe Pavelski. All of those players have an elite skill of some sort, and that was apparent for most of their careers.
For starters, Crosby is a generational offensive talent and has continued to dominate on that front. Marchand has high-end offensive skills and is responsible in his zone. Giroux and Zuccarello are both high-level playmakers. Finally, Kopitar and Pavelski are both great two-way players, with the former being a great creator of offense and the latter being one of the best deflecting specialists in the game.
Notice a theme? None of them have ever been reliant on their abilities on the rush. They might have been useful at a time, but there was clearly some skill present with them. For Konecny, it’s just not there. There is a reason why he was such a poor power-play scorer and has just eight points in 22 career playoff games — he lives and dies by his transition scoring. It’s hard to come by in the playoffs and virtually never happens on the man advantage.
Using the Atkinson comparison again, he scored 41 goals in his 2018-19 campaign, the first season of a seven-year deal he signed at the age of 28. Of those tallies, 24 of them were on the rush (58.5 percent rush-scoring rate). For reference, Crosby scored 42 goals in 2023-24 and just 10 of them were on the rush (23.8 percent rush-scoring rate). No, the elite offensive players aren’t just magic — they’re more talented and score in other ways.
Atkinson was still very much reliant on this type of scoring output in 2023-24, but the issue is that he wasn’t nearly the same player anymore, so he scored just 13 goals in 70 games. Coupling the same defensive woes as Konecny with it, it’s not hard to see this becoming the former’s future.
Konecny’s dependence on his rush scoring has led him to be one of the worst-graded defensive forwards in the NHL. If he loses that scoring touch, what will he have? It’s impossible to say when or if this regression will occur for certain, but going for an eight-year deal comes with far more risk than it does a potential reward. In the modern NHL, there are few (if any) examples of a player like him having their contract age well.
What Might a Konecny Trade Look Like?
General managers (GMs) across the NHL have likely calculated this same risk with Konecny. Unless a team is in win-now mode, they probably won’t bother giving him a long-term deal. However, there could be some clubs that might find use of him as a rental. Whether he is dealt before the start of the 2024-25 season or at the trade deadline, there might be some value.
Alas, it’s hard to see Konecny returning a haul. Jake Guentzel only got the Pittsburgh Penguins a second and fifth-round draft pick, Michael Bunting, and prospects Vasili Ponomarev, Cruz Lucius, and Ville Koivunen at the trade deadline. That’s a pretty underwhelming return for a player who has some of the offensive skills required to be a great player for a while and who put up 77 points in just 67 games in 2023-24.
The sooner Konecny is traded, the better it would be for trade value. Guentzel was only a 17-game rental for the regular season, so if that were bumped to 82 games it might have gotten the Penguins some better luck. Ultimately, though, it’s apparent that the interest level could be somewhat low. Konecny is a good player, but his contract only has one season left on it.
Trading Konecny would be the hardest thing GM Danny Briere would have to do in his tenure by a long shot. So far, he has really only made win-win moves. It will say a lot about him if he goes against a fan-favorite player and trades him away for a package that might not look to be all that much on paper. If franchise-changing money is the ask, a player like Konecny should probably be on the way out; extending players largely based on their “heart” and “grittiness” is a disaster waiting to happen.
