With just a few weeks until the 2024 NHL Draft, I wanted to take this chance to make a few bold predictions. Like the 2023 NHL Draft, there is a consensus on the first overall pick (Macklin Celebrini), but the rest of the draft is anyone’s guess. What are some potential surprises we could see in this year’s draft?
Solberg Is Selected By the Maple Leafs at 23rd Overall
Even with Stanley Cup aspirations, the Toronto Maple Leafs did not trade their 2024 first-round pick at the 2024 Trade Deadline, leaving them in possession of the 23rd pick at this year’s draft. With that pick, they will select projected second to third-round pick, Stian Solberg.
Related: 2024 THW NHL Draft Guide
Solberg’s ranking ranges from as high as 21st all the way to 79th. He is a left-handed defenseman from Oslo, Norway, and finished with 15 points in 42 games for Vålerenga of Norway’s top Men’s hockey league. He is a smooth-skating defenseman with a strong shot and a reliable two-way game with a lot more pros than cons. The Hockey Writers (THW) Peter Baracchini attended the 2024 Draft Combine and reported that Solberg attended a special event with Toronto.
While this could be pure speculation, Toronto’s second pick in the draft comes in at 120, so Solberg is sure to be gone by then. They also need defensive prospects and have been known to reach in the first round. They selected Easton Cowan, a projected third to fourth-round pick, at 28th overall in the 2023 Draft, proving they do not draft by consensus rankings. With Michael Brandsegg-Nygård likely to become the highest-drafted Norwegian prospect ever, Solberg could potentially follow as the second-highest Norwegian pick in NHL history.
Helenius Falls Out of Top 20
Konsta Helenius is ranked as high as third by some scouts, but there is a consensus concern surrounding his game. No, he does not have off-ice issues or a lack of experience – the concern is he lacks one specific skill that stands out among other prospects. With teams potentially going after the “Hail Mary” in the first round, Helenius may drop to the 20s.
In THW’s Writers Mock Draft, Helenius fell to the Nashville Predators at the 22nd pick. One of the most complete, NHL-ready prospects in the 2024 Draft fell to the 20s, and seeing it occur in real life is not out of the question. It would be shocking, but that is why these are bold predictions.
Silayev Drops Out of Top 8
The most bold prediction on this list has Anton Silayev dropping outside of the top eight. He is a projected top-five pick who dominated to start the 2023-24 season for Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL), tallying a goal and five assists in his first six games of the season. By January in Bob McKenzie’s 2024 Mid-Term Scout’s Poll, Silayev was ranked second overall. However, the defenseman scored just five points in his final 57 games.
Silayev is not ranked so high for his offense, but rather for his professional playstyle and massive frame. He is 6-foot-7 and was one of the KHL’s top defensemen this past season. However, with uncertainty regarding the future of Russian-United States relations, and two years left on his KHL contract, he may slip outside of the top eight.
With the draft’s uncertainty starting at the fourth overall pick, that is the earliest Silayev would hear his name. The Columbus Blue Jackets own the fourth pick, and it very well could be where he hears his name. However, if they go in another direction, it is hard to predict where else he would be a fit.
The Montreal Canadiens have the fifth pick and seek a forward, so they are unlikely to take Silayev. The Utah Hockey Club took Russian defenseman Dmitri Simashev with the sixth pick last draft and are unlikely to take a defenseman with a similar playstyle again. The Ottawa Senators need a defenseman but may go with someone like Zayne Parekh who could be viewed as a better fit, both in terms of play style and team need. And just like that, Silayev is available at the ninth pick, making it an unlikely, but possible outcome.
Tanner Howe Falls to Third Roud
One of the top prospects heading into the season was Regina Pats forward, Tanner Howe. He scored 36 goals and 85 points in 67 games as a 16/17 year old, but regressed in both goals and points this past season. This regression is largely attributed to the departure of the 2023 first-overall pick and generational talent, Connor Bedard. It was expected to see him struggle at first without his teammate, but he failed to take the necessary strides in his offensive game to lead a line on his own. He is still an exciting prospect, but his point production could be worrisome for NHL front offices.
With there being such little consensus in the draft, Howe could slip into the second round unnoticed. From there, anything can happen, leaving his ultimate draft position up in the air. What makes the most sense is for the Chicago Blackhawks to reunite Howe with Bedard at the 67th pick.
Teddy Stiga Is Selected in Top 20
With the United States Developmental Program in a down year, there are not many top American prospects expected to go in the first round. Outside of Cole Eiserman, a projected top-15 pick, no other American is a consensus first-round pick. This is especially true for left-wing Teddy Stiga.
While Stiga’s rankings vary from 23 to 68, his typical ranking falls in the 45-50 range. While this would leave him doubtful to hear his name called with a first-round pick, it very well may happen, even in the top 20. His versatility, strong compete level, and stride are all cause to believe he can go earlier than expected, and his commitment to Boston College is another reason for excitement.
Ilya Nabokov Goes Before Carter George
Carter George has been the top goaltending prospect for the entirety of this season, but recent outcomes may change that. He gave up over four goals per game in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) playoffs for the Owen Sound Attack. This was at the same time as top Russian prospect Ilya Nabokov won the KHL Playoffs MVP en route to a Gagarin Cup victory for Metallurg Magnitogorsk. Nabokov went 16-6-0 in the playoffs, posting a 1.82 goals-against average, a .942 save percentage, and four shutouts.
The main knock on Nabokov’s draft outlook is his lack of sustained success and age. He is 21 years old and a third-year draft-eligible prospect, so teams have already scouted him and decided not to draft him. However, now with a dominant playoff performance in a premier Men’s professional league, teams may be more inclined to take the goaltender with a strong resume. Of course, goaltenders are very fickle, but so are some NHL scouts, so hearing Nabokov’s name before George, and potentially as early as the second round, is possible.
The 2024 NHL Entry Draft at The Sphere is approaching, with Round 1 set to take place on June 28 and the following rounds the day after. It is expected to be an exciting and unpredictable draft, so prepare for a fun two days.
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