The New York Islanders fell in Round 1 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs to the Carolina Hurricanes, and it is clear change is needed for the team to return to its former glory. It was a long season, filled with injuries, blown leads, and false confidence, providing a clear picture that the current roster is multiple pieces away from becoming a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. With the roster so far away, they should use the 2024-25 season to gauge the team’s ability to prepare for a historic 2025 offseason.
Evaluating if Roy Has What it Takes
When general manager Lou Lamoriello decided to relieve Lane Lambert of his coaching duties, he named Patrick Roy head coach on a two-year deal. This is unusual for midseason coaching hires, as the standard is an interim hire for just the remainder of said season. The Islanders had a vision with Roy when hired, setting him up to gauge each player’s ability in the 2023-24 season to prepare for the 2024-25 season.
Related: 2023-24 New York Islanders: Too Long, Too Much Money
With Roy as head coach, the Islanders finished at a near-100 standing points pace. Not to mention, this was all with an injury-riddled defensive core and career-worst Ilya Sorokin. With a full and healthy training camp and preseason, the Islanders will be able to analyze what Roy is capable of over the course of an entire season. And, if the season does not go to plan, there is no contractual obligation to bring him back the following season.
Everyone Is Healthy
In addition to evaluating Roy, the Islanders have a handful of players who have uncertain futures with the team. The two most glaring trade candidates are forwards Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Both struggled immensely this season, and fans have recently called for each to be traded. It is purely speculative for now, but it appears the Islanders are entertaining trade offers on the two forwards.
The issue here is that both players are overpaid and have two seasons remaining on their contracts. The Islanders have the assets to dump their contracts, but it is far from ideal. With a dwindling prospect pool, they need to shy away from tacking on a first or second-round pick alongside the forwards to shed their contracts. By keeping both Lee and Pageau for one more season, the Islanders can gamble they will each improve, slightly increasing their trade value. However, even if they struggle again, it would be much easier to trade the forwards next offseason with just one year remaining on their contracts.
The Islanders also need to gauge defenseman Scott Mayfield’s ability. He played just 41 games due to a Game 1 ankle injury to start the regular season, a mid-season upper-body injury, and a season-ending lower-body injury suffered in February. On the ice, he was slow, out of place, and a regular in the penalty box. Last season was an anomaly for him, so it is all but guaranteed once fully healthy, he will bounce back.
At his best, Mayfield is one of the league’s best third-pairing defensemen, playing key minutes on the penalty kill and at the end of close games. While there is a small likelihood of the Islanders finding a trade partner for Mayfield and the remaining six years of his contract, a full season to evaluate his abilities is imperative to the Islanders in understanding his long-term future in the NHL.
Sorokin struggled on paper in the 2023-24 season, but he got very unlucky. He primarily struggled on the penalty kill, understandably so given the Islanders’ injuries to key penalty-killing defensemen in Mayfield, Adam Pelech, and Ryan Pulock, as well as the midseason coaching change. It is obvious Sorokin will bounce back next season, the only question is how much better will he be.
2025 Free Agent Class Looks Strong
While we are still a year out, the 2025 offseason could provide one of the strongest free agent classes in league history. The class is headlined by Leon Draisaitl, Mikko Rantanen, Mitch Marner, Brock Boeser, Nikolaj Ehlers, Travis Konecny, Pavel Buchnevich, Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaege and many others. Of course, all of these players are eligible to sign contract extensions beginning July 1, 2024, but many are likely to test the free-agent market.
For the Islanders, they could have north of $45 million in spending money. If the team trades Lee and Pageau, and the salary cap rises to around $92 million, they will be able to bring in many key free agents. Also, the only core free agents the team needs to re-sign are Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, and Brock Nelson, likely leaving the team with around $30 million to spend. While we are still far out from the 2025 offseason, and a lot can happen between now and then, it makes a lot of sense to save money to go all-in.
Gauging Young Core
The Islanders have a lot of current roster players with question marks, but this may be an even bigger issue in the prospect pool. The team has struggled in recent seasons with developing prospects, primarily because they lack opportunities on the NHL roster. If the Islanders decide to use the 2024-25 season to evaluate the team’s ability, this will include assessing much of the prospect pool.
This will start by giving Ruslan Iskhakov, William Dufour, Matthew Maggio, Alex Jefferies, Samuel Bolduc, and Simon Holmstrom all regular playing time. Bolduc and Holmstrom have already played many NHL games, but neither has found a permanent spot in the lineup. Iskhakov and Dufour have also played just one regular season NHL game a piece, but that is it. If the Islanders decide to go this route, the lineup could look like this:
Jefferies – Horvat – Barzal
Holmstrom – Nelson – Palmieri
Lee – Iskhakov – Maggio
Engvall – Cizikas – Dufour
Extra: MacLean, Tsyplakov
Romanov – Dobson
Pelech – Pulock
Bolduc – Mayfield
Extra: Reilly*
Sorokin
Varlamov
Of course, this lineup does not look capable of winning the Stanley Cup, but it is comparable to the 2023-24 roster. It is a funky roster, but the information gained will pay dividends down the line. This lineup includes reuniting Pelech with Pulock, playing Maggio alongside Iskhakov, a duo that was stellar last season in the American Hockey League, and other previous line combinations.
This iteration of the Islanders would go through rough stretches, especially with four rookies in the forward core, but would be a great way to gauge the player’s ability for the future. It also leaves approximately $5.5 million in free salary cap room, so if the Islanders are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders, they will have the assets and cap space required to make a splash at the trade deadline.
The reality here is unless the Islanders blow up the current roster, they are not getting a lineup much better than this. The only major improvements could be adding a more serious first line, left-wing, and finding a great center for the third line. However, making both of those moves would require the Islanders to trade their first and second-round picks in the 2024 Draft, a decision that would not be wise.
The overarching idea here is the Islanders should commit to a direction. If they run it back without making major changes to the roster, they are lining themselves up to be another first-round exit at best. The roster lacks the star power and depth to take down top Stanley Cup contenders, and there is minimal wiggle room to make any midseason additions given the team’s tight salary situation. The Islanders should use the 2024-25 season to gauge their long-term outlook to prepare for a historic 2025 offseason.
