When the Florida Panthers signed goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to that seven-year, $70 million contract in the 2019 offseason, many looked at it and figured it would age poorly. For the most part, it did. Bobrovsky, a two-time Vezina Trophy winner with the Columbus Blue Jackets, was underwhelming in the regular season and never looked like an elite goaltender in Florida.
Now, he’s led the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Final. They have won games they should have lost because of Bobrovsky’s remarkable performances. A franchise that reached the Cup Final only once before he arrived is now one win away from a championship.
Similarly, New York Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin signed an eight-year extension with an $8.25 million average annual value (AAV) in the 2023 offseason that kicks in next season. After a disappointing 2023-24 campaign, some might also think his contract will age poorly and set the Islanders back. Bobrovsky’s timeline with the Panthers might be an indication otherwise.
Elite Goaltenders Have Their Highs & Lows
There’s a lot of chatter about whether Sorokin’s days are numbered on Long Island. He had a rough season, which led to the Islanders starting Semyon Varlamov down the stretch and into the playoffs. It’s possible the team might try to trade him and search for other options in net this summer. But it’s hard to find a goaltender who consistently plays at a high level. Even the best in the game have tough stretches when they can’t seem to put together a good start.
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Bobrovsky’s goals saved above average (GSAA) has been in the negatives in three of the past five seasons. But he’s not the only one. Andrei Vasilevskiy tailed off in each of the past two seasons. Connor Hellebuyck’s goals-against average (GAA) was 2.97 in 2021-22. Even Igor Shesterkin has peaks and valleys every season, most notably this campaign when Jonathan Quick took over as the starter for a midseason stretch. The reality is that goaltenders have rough seasons, and teams must keep that in mind when constructing contenders.
Sorokin’s track record proves that this season, while concerning, was the exception and not the rule. He’s a Vezina-caliber goaltender and in three full seasons as a starter, he’s proved more often than not that he can be relied upon to carry the Islanders.
Bobrovsky Wasn’t Paid for the Regular Season
When Bobrovsky’s deal was signed, the hope was that he would be the elite goaltender to lean on in the playoffs. Sure, he was excellent in the regular season, but he only led the Blue Jackets to one series victory in his time with the team. The Panthers’ goal was to see him play at a high level on the biggest stage. In the past two years, he has.
In the past two playoff runs, he’s had three shutouts and 11.9 GSAA while shutting down elite offenses. Moreover, the closer the Panthers get to winning the Cup, the better he’s been. In the final three games of the Eastern Conference Final, he allowed only five goals, and through three games of the Stanley Cup Final, he’s only allowed four.
The Islanders signed Sorokin for his elite play. However, the only time elite play matters is in the playoffs. So far, Sorokin hasn’t carried the Islanders in a series, but he’s sure to do it in time. It took Bobrovsky 13 seasons to reach the conference final, a reminder that success isn’t immediate.
Over a Long-Term Contract, Bobrovsky Proved His Worth
The bet the Panthers made was that over the next seven seasons, Bobrovsky would be incredible in at least a few of them. He wouldn’t carry them all the time, and he’d struggle in a series or two, but at some point, he’d have a playoff run to remember.
Sorokin stepped up for a game or two but hasn’t had one of those playoff runs where he’s dominated a series. However, the Islanders are betting that he’ll have at least one run for the ages in the next eight seasons. The team knows that he can take over games when everything is clicking, and it’s only a matter of time before he does that in the playoffs.
Considering Bobrovsky’s game a few seasons into his Panthers contract and his game now, there’s no reason to think Sorokin can’t do the same. If the Islanders consistently reach the playoffs (a big if considering their roster build), he can eventually lead them to a Cup.
Islanders Can Learn From Panthers Success
Sorokin will return to form and eventually be a driving force in the Islanders’ success. That said, he can only do so much. The team has to help him out. This season, he was overworked and overwhelmed by high shot totals, causing him to struggle. A reliable defense in front of Sorokin will go a long way.
The Panthers have put a great defense in front of Bobrovsky, and their roster has no glaring weakness. The Islanders have a long way to go before they look like a juggernaut, but if Bobrovsky has shown them anything, it’s that Sorokin is the right goaltender to lead them. They just have to be patient and build a great team around him.
