Even though the Florida Panthers entered last night’s game on the cusp of their first Stanley Cup championship, it felt like they were due for a game like that. The Edmonton Oilers wasted no time making a statement and trounced the Panthers 8-1 to make things at least a tad more interesting. They’ve had the better of play in most of these games, so perhaps it’s something to build on. Meanwhile, the Panthers have some things to clean up ahead of Game 5 on Tuesday.
Oilers’ Rush Offense Worked the Panthers’ Rush Defense
The Panthers were one of the best rush defense teams in the NHL this season. Even to this point of the playoffs, we hadn’t really seen a team test their rush defense like the Oilers did last night. Of the Oilers’ eight goals, at least six started via rush chances, including Mattias Janmark’s shorthanded tally that got the scoring started in the first period.
Dylan Holloway scored two goals via the rush, while Connor McDavid got his first of the Final via a rush chance to make it a 4-1 game. We hadn’t seen the Oilers get that much open ice in this series, even though they’ve had a good chunk of the territorial play through four games.
Related: Oilers Stave Off Elimination vs. Panthers in Game 4
That was by far the Panthers’ loosest game defensively of not only the Stanley Cup Final but also the entirety of the playoffs. It’s also not something that necessarily shows up in some of the advanced stats. If you look at Natural Stat Trick and Money Puck, the teams were about even in expected goals at five-on-five. Part of that is score effects because the Oilers built such a massive lead early, but it’s also how they scored their goals.
Per Money Puck, Darnell Nurse’s goal was only worth 0.05 expected goals. But that’s because McDavid left Nurse a drop pass with him coming at full steam from the neutral zone, and stats sites don’t always pick that up. The same was true of McDavid’s goal, which saw him enter the offensive zone with plenty of speed from the neutral zone.
All the Oilers’ goals were quality chances; they did finish with 4.79 expected goals at all strengths. Did Sergei Bobrovsky have his best night? Far from it, but what goal could you blame him for before he got pulled in favor of Anthony Stolarz when the Oilers went up 5-1? The Oilers were an onslaught from the opening faceoff, and there was not much the Panthers could do about it.
The Oilers even got the best of the Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad pairing, which has been fantastic throughout the playoffs. They had a rough night in Game 4, as they were on the ice for four goals against at all strengths, including three at five-on-five.
Ekblad had one of his worst games of the playoffs, finishing with a Game Score of minus-4.52, the worst among all skaters between both teams. Forsling didn’t fare much better, finishing with a Game Score of minus-1.76, his second-worst of the postseason. One has to think they’ll rebound for Game 5 because they’ve been so good for the Panthers, but it was tough sledding for them last night. Just as it was for the entire team defensively.
Panthers Need to Get Power Play Going
If there’s one area that has been a problem for the Panthers in the Final, even though they’re up 3-1, it’s been their power play; they’re just 1/13 in the series. Maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise since the Oilers’ penalty kill came into the Final killing off over 90 percent of the power plays they’ve faced, but they’ve stifled the Panthers’ man advantage.
Perhaps one silver lining for the Panthers is that their power play did generate some quality looks in the third period of Game 4. They had three high-danger chances on the power play in the final frame and generated 1.15 expected goals. They just didn’t have the finish. It would have been nice to score a power-play goal in the third to have something to build on, but the process was there.
If the Oilers play as they did tonight in Game 4, the Panthers will need a power-play goal or two to kill some of their momentum. Otherwise, they could be in for another rough night.
Can the Oilers Make a Comeback?
On a scale of 1/10, I don’t think the Panthers should be any more concerned than a 4.5. I say that because they’re up 3-1 in the series, which is obviously quite comfortable. But I think they should at least be mildly concerned because it’s not like they’ve dominated the Oilers at five-on-five.
In fact, you could make a good argument that the Oilers have had the better of the play for two and a half of the four games of the Stanley Cup. The Oilers skated the Panthers into the ground in Game 1, but Sergei Bobrovsky stole a win. Game 2 went to the Panthers, but the Oilers were arguably better in Game 3, and they were clearly the superior team last night.
Had the Oilers gotten the goaltending they needed in Game 3 or the finishing they needed in Game 1, this could be a much different-looking series. That’s not to say the Oilers would be up 3-1, but it could be heading back to Sunrise tied 2-2 at a minimum.
It’s also worth noting that the Oilers have controlled 52.94 percent of the expected goals (xG%) at five-on-five compared to 47.06 percent for the Panthers. If that continues, the Oilers will likely continue to get rewarded on the scoreboard as they did last night. So the Panthers need to be careful because the numbers suggest the Stanley Cup Final hasn’t been as lopsided as the 3-0 series lead they had coming into Game 4.
The Oilers have responded incredibly well to losing streaks under coach Kris Knoblauch this season, and they easily have the firepower to reel off a couple of wins in a row. That’s especially true since they have not played poorly this series despite trailing 3-1. If the Panthers lose Game 5, all bets are off. And given how the Oilers’ scorers have seemingly woken up, don’t be surprised if they extend the Final for at least another game.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Money Puck
