These days, it’s hard to know which rumors are worth believing and which are just smoke screens. Every team is moving full speed ahead where any big move can be made, and it wouldn’t come as a surprise. Maybe Mitch Marner is traded? Could Sam Reinhart, who is coming off a contract year, sign a big deal with another team just days after hoisting the Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers? It’s not far-fetched.
Related: 5 Moves the Islanders Should Make During Draft Week
This brings us to Jake Guentzel, who is a free agent, and the New York Islanders, a team that needs a player like him on their roster. It’s unlikely they get him, but general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello could always have a big move up his sleeve, and he is the one player the Islanders should target in free agency.
Islanders Need Top-Six Scoring
The Islanders need offense, and they’ve needed it for a while. The team has not eclipsed the 3.00 goals per game in a season threshold since 2017-18. They have a handful of stars who carried the scoring last season with Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Brock Nelson leading the way, but they lack the superstar who can take them to the next level.
Guentzel could do that and then some. He’s an elite scorer with 227 career goals, but he’s also a playmaker who sets up scoring chances for his linemates, with 264 assists. He makes an impact at the offensive end of the ice. Playing most of his games alongside Sidney Crosby, he learned how to win with speed and gash opponents on the rush, but he’ll also find his spot in the offensive zone and take advantage of open looks on net.
The Islanders need a skater who can win in multiple ways. The team lacks versatility in a league that demands it to be successful, and Guentzel would provide them with that. It also helps that he’d likely play alongside Barzal, giving the Islanders two fast skaters who can take over a game on any given shift.
Guentzel is a Fit For Lamoriello
Lamoriello loves skaters like Guentzel. He is a center, something Lamoriello believes a great team can’t have enough of (case in point, the Islanders’ top line at one point consisted of three centers, two of which converted to wingers). It also helps that he’s a great shooter who, like Horvat, looks for an opening in the offensive zone and takes advantage. Plus, Guentzel will turn 30 soon, so he checks off a lot of the GM’s boxes (the last one is a subtle jab, considering the age of many core players on the team).
If the Islanders make a splash, Guentzel would be the player to acquire. Lamoriello rarely, if ever, makes an offseason signing, often stating confidence in the group that’s in place. However, if there was ever a player he should want to get, it’s Guentzel.
Trickle-Down Effect of Guentzel
The Islanders’ forward unit from a season ago was top-heavy. Barzal, Horvat, Nelson, and Kyle Palmieri provided most of the scoring, while the third and fourth lines failed to generate much offense. So, it’s easy to argue that the Islanders must add depth this offseason, and they should address their top-six with a Guentzel signing.
That said, Guentzel makes everyone better. By adding him to the top line, the Islanders suddenly can move Anders Lee or Casey Cizikas (yeah, he played on the top line at times, as crazy as that seems now) to the third line. With that move, the Islanders can move Simon Holmstrom or Pierre Engvall, two of their better depth scorers, to the fourth line to add a spark there as well.
Suddenly, the Islanders have a forward unit that has both star power and depth. Guentzel doesn’t singlehandedly transform the offense into one of the best, but his presence makes a significant difference. The Carolina Hurricanes knew this when they acquired him at the trade deadline, and it’s why they gave up a lot to get him. It’s also why he’ll be one of the highest-paid players this offseason, leading to the biggest issue the Islanders face.
Obstacles Islanders Must Overcome to Acquire Guentzel
The salary cap will be the big thing for the Islanders. A lot of teams will be looking to add a player of his caliber as of July 1. Barzal and Horvat each cost $8 million per year, and Elias Pettersson just signed a deal with an $11.6 million average annual value (AAV). Using those contracts as a reference, Guentzel could easily sign a deal worth $10 million AAV.
The Islanders will get a boost in cap space with the limit rising by the start of next season, but it will only be a small bump. To fit Guentzel on the roster, they’ll need to move a player in a trade or with a buyout. A Jean-Gabriel Pageau buyout was briefly discussed on the latest 32 Thoughts Podcast, but Lamoriello will look to avoid that by any means necessary (he didn’t buy out Josh Bailey, a player many thought he would).
Guentzel comes at a price, but it’s a price worth paying for a team looking to return to contention. The Islanders aren’t Cup contenders and haven’t been in the past three seasons, so making a big move like a Guentzel signing is pivotal.
