With free agency now open, the New York Islanders have already missed out on most of the top free agents. Jake Guentzel, Sam Reinhart, and Matt Duchene are off the market, and even more big names are likely gone by the time you are reading this. This is familiar territory for Islanders fans, as the team has missed out on top free agents for the entirety of the Lou Lamoriello era, but that may be a good thing. Avoiding long-term contracts on aging players and instead pursuing young talent is better for the team in the short and long term.
Assessing Long-Term Cap Space
It is pretty easy to see why the Islanders should avoid signing more players to long-term deals. Beginning in the 2024-25 season, the Islanders will have seven players signed for five or more seasons, and 12 players with a modified or full no-trade clause. Adding someone like Guentzel or Reinhart would have been a massive addition now, but would put the team in an even tighter salary position in five or six years.
As well, the Islanders 2025 offseason could be historic. If the team struggles this season, players like Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson, Semyon Varlamov, and even Alexander Romanov could be moved, signifying a shift towards a rebuild or retool. If the 2024-25 season is a success, the Islanders could be aggressive in 2025 free agency, pursuing a plethora of top players like Leon Draisaitl or Pavel Buchnevich. We are a year away from next year’s free agency so a lot could change, but it makes much more sense for the Islanders to get younger this season and reassess next offseason.
How Pinto Could Join the Islanders
Despite playing for the Ottawa Senators, Islanders fans are already familiar with Shane Pinto. The Long Island native was rumored to be an Islanders’ trade target in the 2023 offseason amid a contract dispute, but the speculation died down following his suspension for violating the league’s gambling policy. From there, he scored nine goals and 27 points in 41 games for Ottawa, providing no reason for the team to move him. However, according to reporter Anthony Di Marco, Pinto has requested a trade, and other insiders have stated Pinto’s cap is looking for an offer sheet. If that is the case, the Islanders must find a way to land him.
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As entertaining an offer sheet may be, general manager Lamoriello would never do it. He is a traditionalist and would never break one of hockey’s unwritten rules, even if it made sense. However, a trade would make sense and the Islanders would have the assets to land Pinto.
A trade would cost a good amount, likely beginning with a first-round pick. Given Pinto is just 23 years old, he is yet to reach his prime, so whoever lands him is getting him under team control, likely through the duration of his best seasons. A first-round pick would have conditions, likely a top-10 protection.
From there, the Islanders would throw in another asset or two. This could be Oliver Wahlstrom, a 24-year-old who returned from an ACL tear last season. The former top prospect scored two goals and four assists in 32 games while bouncing around the Islanders’ lineup. While he is unlikely to reach his potential on Long Island, he could develop into a 20-goal scorer in the right situation, and Ottawa could be a fit.
Pinto’s Next Contract
If the Islanders were to land Pinto through a trade, they would still need to sign him. They would have two directions to proceed. The first would be a bridge deal, following the framework of recent restricted free agents of Pinto’s caliber. Negotiations would follow Dylan Strome and Martin Necas’ recent contract extensions. Strome and Necas signed two-year, $3 million average annual value (AAV) deals as restricted free agents in recent offseasons. Pinto has slightly less production than Strome and Necas but is likely in line for a similar value contract given the rise in salary cap. For a three-year deal, he would likely come in at around $4 million annually.
However, giving Pinto a longer-term deal of five or six seasons would make more sense. The Islanders have already taken a risk on Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, and Pierre Engvall by giving them long-term deals into their late 30s, so why not do the same for Pinto through his 20s? A long-term deal would likely come in around $5.5 million annually and could be a bargain if he develops into a 20-plus goal, 60-plus point center.
Once on the Islanders, Pinto would immediately join the top six and power play unit, so he would have all the resources necessary to develop into an NHL star. It is still unlikely a trade for Pinto gets done, but with so many free agents off the board, Lamoriello may have to succumb to a high asking price to avoid another season of mediocrity.
