It looks like the fireworks are over (for free agency that is, otherwise, expect to hear them throughout the summer). The New York Islanders made their big offseason move by signing veteran forward Anthony Duclair. With that move, general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello will likely stay quiet for the rest of the offseason, which wouldn’t surprise anyone.
Related: Lamoriello Still Has Work To Do This Offseason
We could see another big move, but, more likely, it’ll be an in-house deal. An extension feels inevitable as the Islanders have the extra cap room to lock up Brock Nelson, another key player and one of the more iconic Islanders in recent memory.
Sure, Noah Dobson or Alexander Romanov could receive long-term deals as well. Both defensemen are crucial to the team’s success and entering their primes, making them ideal signings. However, Nelson should be the top priority for Lamoriello considering his skill set and value.
Nelson Retiring an Islander
Nelson’s name might not carry the same weight as the many great players from the dynasty era, like Mike Bossy or Billy Smith, and there isn’t much he can do to change that. However, he has made his mark as one of the great players in franchise history. The team had years of irrelevancy before rising to the top of the Eastern Conference, notably in 2020 and 2021 when they reached the Semifinals, which coincided with the rise of their second-line center.
The Islanders haven’t raised a jersey to the rafters in a long time nor have they had a player worthy of the honor. John Tavares was supposed to be that player, but he left in the 2018 offseason. Now, Nelson has emerged as one of the rare ones who could start and finish his career with one team.
The Islanders want to give Nelson a deal that will allow him to remain with them for the rest of his career. Ideally, he will be willing to sign a team-friendly contract with a significant number of years attached.
Lamoriello Keeps His Top Scorer Long-Term
If there’s anything Lamoriello has shown as GM, it’s that he values scorers, especially scoring centers. Most of his moves to upgrade the forward unit reflect that. There was the Kyle Palmieri trade at the 2021 deadline, then there was the Bo Horvat trade during the 2023 All-Star Break, and recently, there was the Duclair deal, all of which added players with great shots to the top six.
Nelson is the Islanders’ best scorer, and he’s started to hit his stride in recent seasons. In 2021-22, he scored 37 goals, and he followed that with 36 in 2022-23. Last season might be considered a step-down, with 34 goals, but he still led the team, edging out Horvat by a goal. Nelson consistently finds the back of the net, and what makes his production more impressive= is that he does so regardless of who is on his line. Horvat has Mathew Barzal on his wing, creating scoring chances for him, but the same can’t be said of the second line, which sees constant shuffling on the wings.
Lamoriello will want to make sure he keeps Nelson on the roster. He’s a key part of the offense and will remain that way even as he ages. A decline at some point is inevitable, but Nelson, particularly with his shot, can still be a force in the offensive zone.
Extension’s Biggest Obstacle
The big question mark is whether Nelson wants to retire an Islander. Does he want to take a pay cut to remain with the team that drafted him in 2010? Right now, it’s easy to say he’d be willing to stay, but many franchise icons have finished their careers elsewhere even when it felt impossible to see them in another jersey (Steven Stamkos in a Nashville Predators jersey will be tough to process).
Nelson can still field a decent payday on the open market, and if he wants, he will test free agency. On top of that, the intrigue of returning home will be on the table, and in Nelson’s case, that would mean signing a contract with the Minnesota Wild to finish his career. However, he seems happy on Long Island, and many signs point to him staying, but the price will have to be right.
What a Nelson Contract Can Look Like
There’s been plenty of speculation about what Nelson’s next contract could look like. He has a $6 million average annual value (AAV) salary, and odds are, his next deal won’t exceed that number. He could still receive a short-term contract with a $5 million AAV in free agency, but the Islanders will likely want to pay closer to the $3 million AAV range. The ultimate question will be if both sides can meet in the middle.
Nelson will be 33 years old when the 2024-25 season starts, putting him in the same age bracket as Chris Tanev, who just signed a six-year contract with a $4.5 million AAV. What makes Nelson unique is that he’s aging well, so he could argue that he deserves a contract with four or five seasons attached to it. All this points to the Islanders offering him a five or six-year deal but with a low AAV, in the $3 million range, to give the team flexibility. That would be the best-case scenario for all sides involved.
Will the Islanders sign Nelson to an extension this offseason? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
