The New York Islanders have a lot of decisions to make this offseason, specifically regarding the team’s long-term future. Despite posing as contenders, there is a lot of uncertainty in the current roster, leaving the future of the core up in the air. One player currently getting a lot of buzz is defenseman Noah Dobson, with many fans saying he should be rewarded with a contract extension. However, there are many reasons that he should not, at least for now.
Who is Noah Dobson?
Dobson is a 6-foot-4, 200-pound defenseman who has played an integral role in the Islanders’ past few seasons. Despite having just six points in his final 17 games, he finished last season with 10 goals and 70 points in 79 games. At just 24 years old, he has likely not yet reached his potential, and his right-handedness makes him all the more valuable.
Dobson’s 2023-24 season can be summarized by one word: fatigue. He was used tirelessly due to the Islanders’ defensive injuries and coaching changes. He averaged over 25 minutes per game for much of the season and led the team in overall ice time by nearly 300 minutes. He was forced into roles he had never played such as the penalty kill and late-game defensive schemes. While his finish to the season was disappointing, it is hard to get mad at him given his especially stressful season.
The 2024-25 Season Has a Lot On the Line
Do not get me wrong, Dobson is a fantastic defenseman and should remain an Islander for a long time. I gave him an “A” rating for last season, and the Islanders would have never been close to making the playoffs if it were not for them. Despite this, a contract extension shouldn’t be the team’s current priority. The Islanders barely made the playoffs last season and were dismantled in five games by the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round. While there are many reasons to believe this season could be different, the outcome could go either way.
Related: New York Islanders 2023-24 Report Cards: Noah Dobson
Two main factors suggest this season should see improvement for the Islanders. First, the defense will be healthy. Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield missed a combined 97 games last season, forcing the remaining healthy defensemen to take on heightened roles. With a fully healthy defense, the team should return to being one of the better defensive groups in the NHL. What this means for Dobson’s offensive totals is unclear; he could continue his offensive dominance with additional rest, or his numbers could decrease due to less ice time.
Additionally, this will be head coach Patrick Roy’s first full season with the Islanders, and he is determined to make the most of it. He has made changes to the coaching staff and brought in Anthony Duclair, a player he has coached before. Under Roy, the Islanders produced at a near-100-point pace over an 82-game season. With a full offseason and training camp, that pace could improve to 105 points or more. While this should boost each player’s performance, including Dobson’s, it makes more sense to reassess the roster after experiencing a full season under Roy’s system.
Dobson’s Contract Comparables
The best argument for delaying contract negotiations with Dobson is that it wouldn’t benefit the Islanders at this time. Dobson has only one season of top-pairing performance, and extending his contract now offers minimal upside. The league’s top defensemen, like Adam Fox and Cale Makar, are earning close to $9 million annually (AAV). However, Dobson is currently a level below them so an extension would not be beneficial.
If the Islanders extend Dobson now, it would likely be for around $9 million AAV, offering little upside to the team. This is because in the scenario he signs at this value and continues to excel, eventually reaching the level of Fox and Makar, he would be earning his market value. However, if he doesn’t reach that level, he will be overpaid.
If Dobson’s performance declines this season, he might be looking at a contract closer to $7.5 million AAV. This would place him above Pulock’s $6.15 million AAV and Pelech’s $5.75 million AAV but below Fox’s $9.5 million AAV and Makar’s $9 million AAV. A $7.5 million AAV deal would position the Islanders to pay Dobson fairly if he maintains his top-pairing status or has a slightly below-market, team-friendly contract.
What if Dobson Breaks Out (Again)
The inevitable pushback on this belief is clear: what if Dobson makes another leap in his development? The answer is simple: pay him more! This would be a great problem for the Islanders, as spending slightly more money to retain an improved player is worthwhile.
Imagine Dobson improves his defense and scores 15+ goals and 80+ points this season while averaging around 23 minutes a night. This would place him in the same tier as Fox and Makar, necessitating a comparable salary. Even if the salary cap increases and Dobson demands a significant contract, his AAV would likely top out around $9.5 million.
In the past five years, the only defenseman with a contract exceeding $10 million AAV is Rasmus Dahlin, which many consider an overpay. Dahlin’s deal, signed before last season after a 73-point performance, saw him regress by 14 points. While he is elite defensively, he’s surpassed 60 points just once and often plays more than 25 minutes per game. As the Sabres become more competitive, he’s unlikely to maintain such high ice time, and that contract will not help the team.
This is not to say Dahlin is a bad player, but it illustrates that teams have recently grown cautious about paying franchise defensemen more than $10 million AAV. While this trend may change with a rising salary cap ceiling, the core idea remains.
The key takeaway is how the Islanders’ should approach their most valuable assets. Extending Dobson now means paying a high price for a high-upside defenseman. Waiting until after the season could mean paying a slightly higher price for a high-level defenseman, or a fair price for a high-upside defenseman whose contract could become a bargain. The reward in an extension is simply not worth the risk, regardless of how valuable Dobson is to the team. And as a restricted free agent, this is not an argument on whether or not to keep Dobson, but rather the best way to keep him around long-term at the lowest price possible.
