For me, free agency has always had a holiday-type impact. Every year, my family gathers at our lake house for the Fourth of July holiday. And every year, I’m the one sharing the latest hockey news with a family full of fans. Twitter and internet-connected cell phones have made sharing breaking news so much easier.
In 2008, my friend called to tell me that the Red Wings signed Marian Hossa and that he hated me. He eventually came to his senses and rooted for the Red Wings in the 2009 Finals.
In 2011, I subscribed my Twitter account to deliver tweets from Bob McKenzie as text messages. I purposely left my phone in the center console of my car, only to find that I had 100+ text messages of signings and reactions after the two-hour drive was over.
This hockey holiday has been a personal holiday for years. And for as long as I can remember, I’ve always tried to predict where the top free agents land before the signings begin on July 1st. So here’s this year’s attempt.
Enjoy the holiday weekend. Merry free agency to all!
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1. Kyle Okposo | LW |
| Prediction: Detroit Red Wings
2015-16 Team: New York Islanders 2015-16 Stats: 79 GP – 22 G – 42 A – 64 PTS |
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| Why: After missing out on Stamkos, the Red Wings will turn their attention to power forward Kyle Okposo, who will cost a few million less than the Lightning center. Okposo will add some much needed size and toughness around the net to the Red Wings’ undersized lineup. |
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2. Loui Eriksson | LW |
| Prediction: Vancouver Canucks
2015-16 Team: Boston Bruins 2015-16 Stats: 82 GP – 30 G – 33 A – 63 PTS |
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| Why: Though his number may not back up a $6 million-plus per season contract, Loui Eriksson is a top player on the market and will be paid as such. Looking to make a splash and add offense to the lineup, Vancouver will pay premium dollars for the Swedish winger. Philadelphia, Boston, and Carolina will also make a push for Eriksson’s scoring services. |
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3. Frans Nielsen | C |
| Prediction: New York Islanders
2015-16 Team: New York Islanders 2015-16 Stats: 81 GP – 20 G – 32 A – 52 PTS |
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| Why: When Okposo decides to leave the island, New York will meet the demands of their other top unrestricted free agent, who, from all accounts, wants to stay with the Islanders. Look for Frans Nielsen to sign a five-year, $30 million contract with the Islanders, who will ultimately outbid the Sabres, Stars, and Flyers. |
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4. Milan Lucic | LW |
| Prediction: Edmonton Oilers
2015-16 Team: Los Angeles Kings 2015-16 Stats: 81 GP – 20 G – 35 A – 55 PTS |
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| Why: This deal will be a head scratcher for the hockey public. Sure, Milan Lucic has ties to Peter Chiarelli, Taylor Hall was just traded, and Edmonton needs a winner to help their young players mature. But, the Oilers will overpay Lucic. He’ll get a multi-year contract north of $6 million per year that will look ugly in the latter years of the deal. |
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5. David Backes | C |
| Prediction: St. Louis Blues
2015-16 Team: St. Louis Blues 2015-16 Stats: 79 GP – 21 G – 24 A – 45 PTS |
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| Why: Even though it will cost the Blues quite a few dollars to re-sign their captain to a long-term contract, David Backes will remain a member of the only team he’s ever known. Teams like the Flyers and Wild will drive the price up a bit, but ultimately, Backes will sign a relatively team-friendly deal to stay in St. Louis. |
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6. Brian Campbell | D |
| Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks
2015-16 Team: Florida Panthers 2015-16 Stats: 82 GP – 6 G – 25 A – 31 PTS |
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| Why: Now that Keith Yandle and Alex Goligoski are off the market, Brian Campbell remains as the best defenseman available. Campbell is still an effective defenseman at this stage of his career and would solidify Chicago’s top-four defensemen. The Blackhawks do not have a lot of cap space, but will find a way to fit Campbell in under the cap on a one-year deal. |
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7. Troy Brouwer | RW |
| Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers
2015-16 Team: St. Louis Blues 2015-16 Stats: 82 GP – 18 G – 21 A – 39 PTS |
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| Why: Simply enough, Troy Brouwer fits Philadelphia hockey. He’s a physical forward that would mesh well with Wayne Simmonds and Jakub Voracek in the top-six. So when Philadelphia strikes out with Okposo, Eriksson, and Lucic, they’ll turn to Brouwer and sign him to a lavish $5 million-plus per season contract. |
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8. Andrew Ladd | LW |
| Prediction: Winnipeg Jets
2015-16 Team: Chicago Blackhawks 2015-16 Stats: 78 GP – 25 G – 21 A – 46 PTS |
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| Why: Teams looking to add size to their lineup will have a few options, won’t they? With money to spend, the Jets will bring their former captain back home to Winnipeg. Andrew Ladd will get a nice raise to roughly $6 million per year, but will sign for only three or four years. |
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9. Eric Staal | C |
| Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs
2015-16 Team: New York Rangers 2015-16 Stats: 83 GP – 13 G – 26 A – 39 PTS |
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| Why: With Stamkos off the market, the Leafs will turn to another veteran center to help Auston Matthews learn the ways of the NHL. As a former Stanley Cup winner, Staal will bring great locker room presence to a young Leafs team. Plus, he’ll only cost half as much as Stamkos signed for. |
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10. Jiri Hudler | LW |
| Prediction: San Jose Sharks
2015-16 Team: Florida Panthers 2015-16 Stats: 72 GP – 16 G – 30 A – 46 PTS |
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| Why: After coming up short in this spring’s Stanley Cup Finals, the Sharks will sign Jiri Hudler to a short-term contract in an attempt to reach the Finals once more. Hudler’s easy-going attitude and winning past will help the Sharks improve during the regular season and capture the Pacific Division title. |
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11. Mikkel Boedker | RW |
| Prediction: Calgary Flames
2015-16 Team: Colorado Avalanche 2015-16 Stats: 80 GP – 17 G – 34 A – 51 PTS |
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| Why: In the analytics community, Mikkel Boedker was not as good of a player as his stats would suggest. Nonetheless, NHL teams will be looking to make a splash, and with so few quality players available, Boedker will be of interest to teams that miss out on the top tier of players. Look for Boedker to sign a similar deal as Michal Frolik did with Calgary. |
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12. Lee Stempniak | RW |
| Prediction: New Jersey Devils
2015-16 Team: Boston Bruins 2015-16 Stats: 82 GP – 19 G – 32 A – 51 PTS |
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| Why: Before being dealt to the Bruins at the trade deadline, Lee Stempniak put up a solid season with the New Jersey Devils. And now with Taylor Hall on board, the Devils will look to bring back Stempniak with a complementary role in mind. He’ll get a nice raise and return to a familiar system in New Jersey. |
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13. Darren Helm | C |
| Prediction: Detroit Red Wings
2015-16 Team: Detroit Red Wings 2015-16 Stats: X GP – X G – X A – X PTS |
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| Why: After Pittsburgh rode team speed all the way to the 2016 Stanley Cup, teams will covet Darren Helm for his incredible speed and never quit hustle on the ice. Helm can play all forward positions and play on special teams, but will return to the Red Wings now that they do not have $10 million set aside for the Stamkos unicorn and can afford to pay market price for the fan favorite. |
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14. Jason Chimera | LW |
| Prediction: Dallas Stars
2015-16 Team: Washington Capitals 2015-16 Stats: X GP – X G – X A – X PTS |
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| Why: Though a fan favorite in DC, the Capitals simply cannot afford to keep Jason Chimera, especially after a career 2015-16 season. Likely on his last big contract, the veteran speedster will head south to sign with the Dallas Stars. The Rangers, Hurricanes, and Predators will also covet Chimera’s services. |
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15. Radim Vrbata |
| Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins
2015-16 Team: Vancouver Canucks 2015-16 Stats: X GP – X G – X A – X PTS |
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| Why: Vancouver’s Radim Vrbata went from being an all-star one year to mightily underperforming during the next season. What’s the remedy? Sign with the Stanley Cup champions for cheap, play alongside Sidney Crosby, score 30 goals, and sign one more big contract the following offseason. |