2013 NHL Draft Rankings – War Room May Edition (Round 2: 31 - 60) - The Hockey Writers -

by Eldon MacDonald (edited by @ChrisRalphTHW)

This is the third of four posts highlighting the top 120 prospects for this year’s entry draft in June in Newark, New Jersey – the 2013 NHL Draft Rankings: War Room May Edition.

U18 World Championship in Sochi, Russia

Well, I think it’s time to talk about the elephant in the room, the U18 World Championship in Sochi, Russia. Usually, the U18’s do not have a major effect on rankings because the hockey season is mainly over and scouts have seen these guys many times by now. Not so this year. I thought it might be because Canada won, but I think it has more to do with certain players addressing their weaknesses or just highlighting their strengths, taking full advantage of the spotlight. Here are some of the big winners and losers from the U18s:

Nicholas Baptiste — Nick Baptiste (Aaron Bell/OHL Images)

Rising Stock

Round 1 – Frédérik Gauthier, Rimouski – #MojoBack – Freddy rediscovered his mojo just in time to become Canada’s dominant player on offense, defense, PK, faceoff and last minute play. In the last two games of the U18’s, when it counted most, it was all Freddy!
Round 1 – Josh Morrissey, Prince Albert – #DuncanKeithesque – Can a moderate-sized defenseman be a big success in the NHL? If you play like Duncan Keith and your name is Josh Morrissey, a lot of teams will be betting yes.
Round 1 – Samuel Morin, Rimouski – #Charaesque – The guy with the biggest growth in his game this year by far. Tall, mean, good skater, good passer, decent offense – every team wants one like him. The sky is the limit in terms of potential and draft pick number.
Round 1 – Steve Santini, USA NDTP U18 – #ThickAsABrick – A brick wall back there on the blueline, dominant against all comers, defenseman MVP for the tournament. This is the shutdown D-man that your team should covet.
Round 1 – Laurent Dauphin, Chicoutimi – #BigGameHunter – In the three biggest games of the year for draft eligible players, Laurent Dauphin has been his team’s MVP in two of them (Top Prospects game and the U18 gold medal game).
Round 1 – Madison Bowey, Kelowna – #MyMan – A favourite of mine throughout the season; still a favourite of mine after a solid U18 Tournament.
Round 2 – Michael McCarron, USA NDTP U18 – #Hulk – If you like ‘em big and hulk-like with decent skills, Michael is your man – could easily slip into the first round.
Round 2 – Tommy Vannelli, USA NDTP U18 – #MrImprovement – Love how his game improved and evolved since he joined the Team USA squad. Makes you wonder, if he had joined the squad at the beginning of the year, would he now have a gold medal in his pocket instead of silver?
Round 2 – Nick Baptiste, Sudbury – #Surprise – My biggest surprise of all the players at the U18; loved his ingenuity, compete, results.
Round 3 – Philippe Desrosiers, Rimouski – #Hero – Philippe’s season can be described as “Hero – Zero – Hero”. After a woeful end of season and QMJHL playoffs, Philippe arose from the ashes to give Canada its first solid goaltending performance in just about anything in a long time, in capturing gold. And yes, he is just as likely to go in round two as in round three.
Round 3 – Tyler Motte, USA NDTP U18 – #Competitor – Led Team USA offense with five goals as well as being a top penalty killer. Skills, compete, offense, defense – likely to make it in spite of his modest size (5’9, 184 lb).
Round 4 – Peter Cehlárik, Luleå – #SlovakianStar – Late season call-up to the Elitserien; looked good there, looked even better as Team Slovakia’s best player at the U18 Tournament.
Round 4 – Gage Ausmus, USA NDTP U18 – #Afterthought – Yes, there are bigger name players on Team USA but Gage Ausmus is a player your team should not overlook. Over 20 minutes a game, played against the other team’s top lines and best players, showed enough size (6’1, 211 lb.) and physicality that he should get some respect on draft day – would not be surprised if he goes in the 3^rd round.

Stock Drop

Round 1 – Valeri Nichushkin, – #NoCompete – The scouts will go easy on you for a lot of your foibles; “compete level” is not one of them. Listen for the sound of the drop; wait a little, you will hear it in New Jersey during the month of June.
Round 2 – Robert Hägg, MODO – #Struggled – Robert Hägg probably will still be a good defenseman but he sure struggled in this tournament. Compete and engagement level just did not meet spec.
Round 3 – Keaton Thompson, USA NDTP U18 – #GluedToTheBench – I felt sorry for Keaton. I don’t know what was wrong: a nagging injury or he just wasn’t as good as I thought he was. In any case, Keaton was just pitiful out there; got beaten to the puck, got beaten off the puck, left the puck behind. His coach must have agreed with my assessment, as Keaton was glued to the bench for periods at a time.

Gangs of New Jersey

Up to 1: Last month, I wrote that nobody except Samuel Morin was knocking on my door to put them in round 1. Well, some of the prospects, must have been listening because this month a whole gaggle of them not only knocked on my door but broke it down. Here is who squeezed in:

Samuel Morin, Defense, Rimouski
Mirco Muller, Defense, Everett
Laurent Dauphin, Centre, Chicoutimi
Madison Bowey, Defense, Kelowna

Up to 2: These players were ranked in round 3 last month. With the exception of Diaby, these group made it to round two based on their U18 performances.

Tommy Vannelli, Defense, USA NDTP U18.
Jonathan Ismael-Diaby, Defense, Victoriaville
Adam Tambellini, Left Wing/Centre, Surrey, BCHL
Zack Nastasiuk, Right Wing, Owen Sound
Nick Baptiste, Right Wing, Sudbury
Hudson Fasching, Right Wing, USA NDTP U18

Down to 2: These are the players relegated to round two in my rankings. However, there is very little separating the players ranked 26 to 40 so movement could go either way in the actual NHL Draft in June.

Robert Hägg, Defense, MODO
Ian McCoshen, Defense, Waterloo
JT Compher, Centre, USA NDTP U18
Artturi Lehkonen, Wing, KalPa, SM-liiga, Finland

Down to 3: These players were relegated to round three in my rankings. For Martin, Roy and Arnesson, it was simply a matter of other players passing them. For Sorensen, it was another injury which combined with two previous major injuries is starting to make scouts think that this player could be a bit brittle. For Kostalek, it was a lack of growth during the year combined with a so-so playoff. For Thompson, as mentioned above, it was due to a sub-par performance at the U18’s.

Spencer Martin, Goaltender, Mississauga
Eric Roy, Defense, Brandon, WHL
Linus Arnesson, Defense, MODO J20, Sweden
Nick Sorensen, Right Wing, Quebec
Jan Kostalek, Defense, Rimouski
Keaton Thompson, Defense, USA NDP U18

Historic Success Rate

The historic success rate for players ranked 30 to 45 is around 33% while rankings 46 to 60 only carry a 24% success rate.

Other Rankings

NHL – Combined rankings of the NHL Central Scouting’s segregated final rankings
Bob MacKenzie – Mid-season poll of NHL scouts at TSN
Chris Ralph – Top 100 mid-season rankings – The Next Ones (Final rankings to be released early June)