The busiest week on the NHL calendar – the one encompassing the Entry Draft and the start of free agency – is finally behind us, with the Colorado Avalanche being one of the most active organizations over the past month. General manager Chris MacFarland made the first big move of the offseason in acquiring center Ryan Johansen from the Nashville Predators to address the team’s hole at second-line center, an issue that had lingered since Nazem Kadri departed in free agency last summer.
Related: Grading the Colorado Avalanche’s 2023 Free Agent Signings
Though the most pressing concerns have been dealt with (including Bowen Byram’s contract extension), the Avalanche’s front office still has a few things to take care of before calling it for the summer. Not only do they still have two notable free agents to sign, but the team could stand to improve its depth at both the forward and defense positions. Without further ado, let’s dive into each issue in turn.
Task #1: Sign Restricted Free Agents Colton and Meyers
Even as the Avalanche have wrapped up most of their free agent signings, two restricted free agents (RFAs) remain unsigned through the first week of July in centers Ross Colton and Ben Meyers. The Avalanche acquired Colton from the Tampa Bay Lightning for a second-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, which the Lightning used to select forward Ethan Gauthier.
The NHL recently announced that Colton was one of 22 players filing for salary arbitration. The hearings are slated to take place from July 20 to Aug. 4, but players can sign a contract with their teams at any point before the hearing takes place.
NHL arbitration operates by these guidelines and dictates the terms of Colton’s next contract. Regardless of what salary the arbitrator awards after the hearing, the term of the contract cannot be more than two years in length. The party who did not file for arbitration (in this case, the Avalanche) decides on the term of the contract. Lastly, clubs are allowed to walk away from an awarded salary greater than $4.538 million if the player filed for arbitration, making them an unrestricted free agent (UFA).
Colton signed a two-year, $2.25 million contract ($1.125 average annual value/AAV) with the Lightning during the 2021 offseason, which was also the result of salary arbitration. The 26-year-old is coming off of a 16-goal, 32-point season with the Lightning, so it’s unlikely that he is awarded a salary that would put the Avalanche in a difficult cap situation.
| Term (Years) | AAV (In Millions) | Likelihood of Signing |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.998 | 7% |
| 2 | $2.722 | 27% |
| 3 | $2.589 | 24% |
| 4 | $3.351 | 29% |
| 5 | $4.023 | 10% |
Evolving Hockey predicts that Colton’s most likely contract (if he signs outside of arbitration) is a four-year contract worth $3.351 million annually. That seems like fair compensation for a player who scored at a second-line rate of 0.81 goals per-60-minutes (138th among qualified forwards) while also generating 5.2 high-danger chances per-60 (39th), both at 5-on-5.
Unlike Colton, Meyers does not have arbitration rights but can still sign an offer sheet with another NHL team, if so inclined. Evolving Hockey projects that Meyers will most likely sign a one- (43%), two- (39%), or three-year (14%) deal which carry cap hits of $829,000, $775,000, and $867,000 respectively.
Meyers only scored four points in 39 NHL games last season (all goals) but performed well with the Colorado Eagles in the American Hockey League (AHL), tallying six goals and 24 points in 30 games. As a returning member of the organization, he could have the inside track on a fourth-line role in 2023-24.
Corey Sznajder’s micro-stat tracking data shows that the 24-year-old was one of the most active forecheckers in the NHL last season in limited minutes, and created rebound opportunities at a very high rate. If he maintains that level of engagement, the Avalanche should be happy with his play in bottom-six usage.
Task #2: Sign a Bottom-Pair Defenseman
On the whole, the Avalanche boast a blue line core that is the envy of almost the entire league. Led by future Hall-of-Famer Cale Makar, they can also trot out one of Devon Toews, Samuel Girard, Bowen Byram, or Josh Manson on any of the three defensive pairings. Yet with veteran defender Erik Johnson (seventh on the Avalanche’s games-played leaderboard) leaving for the Buffalo Sabres in free agency, there is a hole on the team’s bottom pair.
Johnson only played 17:15 per night last season (seventh among the team’s regular defensemen), but ranked third in cumulative shorthanded ice time behind only Makar and Toews. Though Jack Johnson and Kurtis MacDermid can slot in and replace those minutes in aggregate (Johnson ranked fifth in average shorthanded ice time), neither are more than stopgap seventh defenseman, and the Avalanche would do well to bolster that spot in the lineup.
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If the Avalanche are looking for a right-handed bottom-pair defenseman who can take on some responsibility on the secondary penalty-killing unit, there are a pair of free-agent candidates still seeking a contract for the 2023-24 season. The best of a slim list of names, Caleb Jones (previously of the Chicago Blackhawks) and Ethan Bear (Vancouver Canucks) are two 26-year-old UFAs who could fill that particular void.
Though Jones is nominally a left-sided defender, he can switch if required and posted admirable possession numbers despite playing top-four minutes on one of the worst teams in the league last season. He rarely featured on the penalty kill however, so he would only consume Johnson’s usage at even strength. Bear also showed well at 5-on-5 and played just under two minutes a game while shorthanded last season.
Both blueliners graded out favourably at defending zone entries according to Sznajder’s data, though Bear was slightly better at moving the puck out of his own zone last season. If the Avalanche are looking for competence with a splash of potential upside with their bottom-pair next season, they can’t go wrong with either of those two names.
One other darkhorse is 24-year-old Sam Malinski, who signed as a free agent out of Cornell University following the conclusion of the 2022-23 collegiate season. The right-handed rearguard showed flashes of puck-moving ability with the Eagles, scoring three goals and 10 points across 14 AHL regular-season and playoff games while featuring on the top powerplay unit.
At 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds, the former Cornell captain brings something different to the ice than his veteran competition, but he could pop in the Avalanche’s up-tempo system. Keep an eye on him during training camp as he has a real shot at making an impact out of the gate.
Task #3: Fill Out the Bottom-Six Forward Group
Assuming that both Colton and Meyers re-sign with the Avalanche, the team’s forward group should be set with 12 forwards including newcomer Fredrik Olofsson. I would argue that only 10 of those slots are locked in for opening night, with a number of NHL-AHL tweeners ready to do battle during training camp for the final two spots.
As mentioned before, Meyers has a leg-up on the competition given his brief NHL experience and successful AHL stint last season, but he’s far from entrenched. Apart from him and Olofsson, prospects in Oskar Olausson, Jean-Luc Foudy, and Alex Beaucage as well as college signings in Jason Polin and Ondrej Pavel represent seven candidates for the two forward openings.
Judging by their professional experience and play last season, Meyers, Olofsson, and Foudy are the top three names in the running, especially since they are the only players with more than a single NHL game on their resumé.
Though the team is preparing to juggle the roster to be cap compliant at the start of the season without relying on Gabriel Landeskog’s long-term injured reserve (LTIR) assignment, they should have about $2 million to use for depth signings. The NHL’s stagnant salary cap has squeezed several established players who anticipated receiving more lucrative contract offers this summer, including the likes of Matt Dumba, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Tomas Tatar.
The Avalanche could benefit from this by adding another player in the tier below – such as Pius Suter or Tomas Nosek – at a cut-rate price. Even if they decide to look internally to fill out their preferred lineup of 12, those reinforcements should be enough to put forth an improved, and deeper, forward group from top to bottom.
Avalanche Enjoying Successful 2023 Offseason
Although the Avalanche were hamstrung by the uncertainty around Landeskog’s health and how his situation affected the team’s cap structure in the 2022-23 season and beyond, the immediate short-term impact is now clear. They swiftly and effectively addressed the main roster concerns, and now only have to fill in around the margins of the lineup which they can potentially accomplish by promoting several prospects from the AHL.
Assuming the team stays healthy and avoids the injury issues which plagued them throughout the entire 2022-23 campaign, the Avalanche should enter the 2023-24 season as one of a few legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. Considering where they started the summer, that should be seen as a major win for this front office.
Data courtesy of AllThreeZones, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.