While the 2024 Stanley Cup champion has yet to be crowned at the time of this writing, the Colorado Avalanche are already preparing for the 2024 NHL Draft and the upcoming free-agent signing period.
The NHL recently announced that the upper limit of the salary cap is set at $88 million for the 2024-25 season, the first increase of five percent or more since the cap jumped by six percent for the 2018-19 season due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
I have explored the Avalanche’s looming salary cap crunch in depth on multiple occasions recently, particularly as it pertains to the Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin situations. To keep it short, the Avalanche could have as much as $22.36 million in cap space with 14 players under contract (seven forwards, five defensemen, and two goalies) or as little as $9.24 million to sign (or promote) at least three more forwards and one defender depending on how each situation unfolds over the course of the season.
Those numbers are predicated on the Avalanche having elevated right-handed defenseman Sam Malinski into a full-time role in the NHL after having played 23 games (10 points) for them this season, and allowing veteran rearguard Jack Johnson to leave as a free agent. Malinski was signed as a college free agent and is older than a typical prospect.
Johnson’s departure would open up a hole on the left side of the Avalanche blue line and could give the team the opportunity to add a stronger depth option to better support their leading defenders in Cale Makar and Devon Toews. The pair ranked ninth and 28th in all-situations ice time during the regular season, and fourth and eighth during the playoffs respectively. They looked gassed at times against the Dallas Stars in Round 2, and making their lives easier should be a priority this summer.
With that context in mind, let’s dive into four potential unrestricted free agents (UFAs) who could replace Johnson at a cost-effective price while providing more on-ice value alongside Malinski on the bottom pair.
Matt Grzelcyk, Boston Bruins
2023-24 Cap Hit: $3.6875 million
Matt Grzelcyk has been a regular fixture on the Bruins’ blue line since the 2017-18 season but saw his performance (11 points in 63 games) and usage diminish as the season wore on, partially due to a lingering injury. He was tied for sixth among Bruins defensemen in average ice time in all situations during the regular season (minimum 15 games played) and only played three games in the playoffs.
This was the first season in which Grzelcyk’s expected goals share (xGF%) at five-on-five dipped below 50% for his entire career, including his brief two-game stint in 2016-17. Any interested suitors must figure out how much of his previous success was of his own individual accord, and how much came as a result of riding shotgun with perennial Norris Trophy candidate Charlie McAvoy.
At 5-foot-10, the 30-year-old does not cut an imposing figure on the back end. He’s been lauded in the past for his ability to carry the puck out of his own zone and kick-start breakouts, a trait that could come in handy on a team known for its desire to attack quickly in transition.
Grzelcyk’s lack of physicality and individual defensive miscues could make him redundant on the Avalanche blue line, especially if Malinski makes the jump into regular duty. Still, if there is a one-year, show-me deal to be had worth $1.5 million or less, there should be little hesitation in signing that contract.
Erik Gustafsson, New York Rangers
2023-24 Cap Hit: $0.825 million
32-year-old Erik Gustafsson is the quintessential NHL journeyman, having played for seven different teams over his career. Gustafsson has failed to replicate his 60-point 2018-19 campaign with the Chicago Blackhawks, but he still offers plenty of juice from the blue line in the right role as he did for the New York Rangers as a bargain-bin signing last summer.
Gustafsson signed a one-year deal with the Rangers for less than $1 million and repaid them handsomely with 31 points (six goals and 25 assists) in 76 games while playing over 17 minutes per game.
Makar occupies the conductor role on the Avalanche’s top powerplay unit, but the second unit has usually seen Toews and Samuel Girard split duties. Gustafsson is a specialist however, ranking 44th in total powerplay points among all defensemen over the past three seasons. Letting him assume that secondary spot could take some responsibility off of Toews’ plate in particular.
For all of his offensive impact, it must be said that Gustafsson has struggled with the defensive side of the puck throughout his career. If he’s not put in a position to leverage his strengths, he may be more trouble than he is worth in a similar vein to Grzelcyk.
On the other hand, a productive season in a high-profile market like New York could make him too pricey for the Avalanche’s bottom pair, though they can likely still afford to double his 2023-24 cap hit.
T.J. Brodie, Toronto Maple Leafs
2023-24 Cap Hit: $5 million
T.J. Brodie tallied one goal and 26 points in 78 games while playing over 20 minutes per game in all situations but was relegated to the sidelines by the playoffs, featuring in only one postseason game for the Toronto Maple Leafs. He clearly struggled with diminished foot speed and defensive awareness in his usual shutdown role, and it’s a development which will likely result in his exit this offseason.
Any incoming defenseman should be able to play a regular shift at five-on-five and ideally take on penalty-killing duties, something Brodie could do in a subdued role where he plays 15 minutes per game rather than almost 22 like he did this season.
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It’s unclear whether Brodie could be coaxed to move away from his home province of Ontario, especially given that he has endured tragedy in his personal life in recent seasons. The Avalanche could offer him a chance at an elusive Stanley Cup championship (he’s only reached the second round of the playoffs three times in his 14-year NHL career) and a more appropriate role for his current skill set.
Brodie will have to take a significant cut on his previous $5 million cap hit, but lineup fit and Stanley Cup contention should be bigger factors in his decisions in free agency. He could be the perfect veteran partner for a learning Malinski, and would be worth a flier.
Brenden Dillon, Winnipeg Jets
2023-24 Cap Hit: $3.9 million
The fourth name to keep an eye on is that of 33-year-old Brenden Dillon, with whom the Avalanche are familiar with as they unceremoniously dispatched his Winnipeg Jets in the first round of the 2024 Playoffs. He played 77 games for the Jets this season, scoring eight goals and 20 points in a top-four role (fourth among Jets defensemen in average ice time).
In terms of physical traits, it’s easy to see why Dillon may have plenty of suitors and could price him out of the Avalanche’s bargain-bin range. He’s listed at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, a staple on the penalty kill, and hits anything that moves (15th in hits per 60 minutes; minimum 10 games played). He grades out as below-average in almost every puck-moving metric, but that is not why he would be brought to Colorado.
Dillon’s physicality and defensive acumen would be a welcome addition to an Avalanche blue line that already boasts talented puck-movers in Makar, Toews, Girard, and potentially Malinski. A lighter third-pair role with regular shorthanded deployment could be an ideal situation for a veteran looking to extend his career.
Avalanche Have Options for Blue Line Depth
The Avalanche already have some intriguing UFA candidates to sift through but their pool of options will expand once the list of restricted free agents who did not receive a qualifying offer is released following the deadline on June 30.
Another avenue is that the Avalanche could target defensemen on teams with little to no cap space, though the reason such defenders would be available is that they are likely to command a substantial salary, something that the team likely won’t be interested in doing given their fluctuating roster situation.
As far as lineup spots go, a third-pairing defenseman is unlikely to tank a team’s chance of winning the Stanley Cup unless they are particularly unplayable. Still, acquiring a blueliner who can play a regular shift in all situations would help ease the burden on the Avalanche’s star defenders, which is worth much more than the near league-minimum salary a third-pair defenseman could command. Can they find the ideal candidate while operating on an uncertain budget this summer?
Data courtesy of AllThreeZones, Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.
