The Vegas Golden Knights put the 2023 postseason to rest, hoisting the franchise’s first Stanley Cup. The eyes have already turned to the 2023-24 campaign, with the Colorado Avalanche leading the pack as betting favorites to win next season’s championship.
Of course, these odds will likely shift numerous times, even before the season starts in October. Colorado struggled through most of the 2022-23 season, battling injuries before righting the ship enough to take the top spot in the Central Division. However, they were dumped in the first round by the Seattle Kraken and still have a lot of question marks surrounding their roster for next season.
The team famously won its third Stanley Cup in 2022, but is the clock ticking on how long this window of opportunity stays open for the Avalanche?
Colorado Faces Contract Trouble
The core of the team is still clearly there, but contracts are running out, and the salary cap leaves the Avalanche with too many valuable assets to keep around. The two most important names on the list of contracts expiring soon are Mikko Rantanen and Devon Toews. Both have been integral to the success of the Avalanche over the past three seasons, and both look to be in line for a raise when their current deals expire.
Rantanen has two years left on his current contract, with an average annual value of $9.25 million. His 55 goals in 2022-23 were the third-most in the NHL and were tied for third-most in a season in Avalanche history. He also had his first 100-point season and has led the high-flying Avs in scoring two of the last three seasons. Toews has just one season left on his current deal, at a bargain of $4.1 million. He’s proven to be a fantastic wingman for Makar and is an integral piece of the defense. The problem is Colorado might not be able to afford to extend either of them.
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Add in the contract of goaltender Alexandar Georgiev expiring in two seasons, and Colorado might have a lot of vital spots to fill. Those deals might feel like they’re way down the line, but there are also more recent questions to address. Colorado has to figure out what to do with restricted free agents Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook, as well as unrestricted free agents J.T. Compher, Evan Rodrigues and blue line mainstay Erik Johnson. The tricky shell game starts now for Colorado. The Avs will likely extend Byram, but that will take crucial dollars away from bringing back Rantanen or Toews in the future.
Landeskog on LTIR Only Helps in Short Term
Colorado will get some cap relief this season, with Landeskog set to miss the entire campaign on long-term injured reserve. That will give the Avs $7 million more in cap space, which should definitely help. However, that only lasts for this next season, and then his number goes back on the books. With Landeskog’s LTIR boost, the Avalanche have roughly $20 million in cap space for next season but currently have only 12 players signed. That’s a lot to fill with not a lot of money.
The Avs have extended a number of players over the past couple of years. Notably, superstar Nathan MacKinnon was given a lucrative extension and defensive dynamo Cale Makar has four years left on his extension. They also ponied up good money to keep Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen around. Those four players alone will account for $32.225 million against the $83.5 million salary cap. Landeskog’s extension was also recent, as he inked an eight-year deal in 2021.
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There is still plenty of time for Colorado to get creative with some trades, and they should be active in free agency. The issue will be the cap crunch in 2024-25 when Landeskog comes back. The first domino to fall with this current group might be what happens with Byram, but his injury history makes him a tricky deal to negotiate. The Avs won’t be able to keep all of those Cup contributors, but Byram should be a priority – at the right price – to maintain the team’s depth at the blue line.
Avs Face Lots of Decisions
Over the past three years, the Avalanche have won a Presidents’ Trophy and a Stanley Cup. Last season’s first-round shocker notwithstanding, Colorado is still one of the most talented groups in the NHL. The loss of Landeskog is felt, but there is still plenty of punch left in this lineup. The problem is how long that punch is going to remain.
Rantanen is clearly a vital cog in all of the Avalanche’s recent success, as he’s emerged as one of the NHL’s most consistent scorers. The line of Rantanen, MacKinnon and Landeskog has become one of the most productive and famous trios in franchise history. Keeping him around seems like a must, but he will command MacKinnon-like dollars (around $12.5 million AAV) or something close. He is just one of many decisions facing Colorado over the next few seasons, but he might be the most important one.
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There are so many unknowns surrounding the Avalanche roster going into the 2023-24 season that it’s hard to pinpoint anything down the road. However, those decisions will be coming over the horizon very soon and could impact what happens in this offseason. The talent of any good team has to ebb and flow thanks to the impact of the salary cap, and one of the struggles is letting go of contributors from past seasons. That’s the issue the Avs’ face, as maintaining their place in the NHL’s current hierarchy might have to come at the cost of letting go of some of the players that helped them hoist the Stanley Cup.