While the 2024 Stanley Cup Final is in full swing, the Colorado Avalanche continue to prepare for the offseason. The Avalanche have nine notable pending free agents in need of a new contract this summer (six forwards and three defensemen) headlined by a top-six forward in playmaking winger Jonathan Drouin.
The 29-year-old set career-highs in both assists (37) and points (56) this season after signing a one-year deal last summer with the hopes of reviving a flat-lining career. Drouin may have earned himself a hefty raise, but his history with junior teammate Nathan MacKinnon could push him to stay in a comfortable situation where he’s being deployed in a way which plays to his strengths and shields his weaknesses.
Drouin has struggled to live up to his lofty draft stock (third-overall in 2013) but looks to have found a long-term home in Colorado. The reality is that uncertainty around the rest of the roster and the forward’s market value could dictate whether he stays or is on the move again, though his breakthrough makes him a key piece going forward. Let’s dive into the Avalanche’s salary cap situation for 2024-25 and how much Drouin can expect to command as an enticing free agent.
NHL Salary Cap Projected to Continue to Rise
The COVID-19 pandemic stalled the growth of the NHL’s salary cap for nearly half of a decade. The financial realities brought on by an economic downturn forced the league to freeze the upper cap limit at $81.5 million for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons after increasing by at least $2 million for four consecutive seasons prior.
The NHL recently confirmed a $88 million salary cap limit for next season and could see the cap ceiling hit $92 million ahead of the 2025-26 campaign. This increase represents the first jump of five percent or more since the cap jumped by six percent ahead of the 2018-19 season.
Outside of the Avalanche’s pending free agents, the uncertainty surrounding the long-term futures of captain Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin should factor into what promises to be a turbulent offseason for the franchise.
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Landeskog has not played since Game 6 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final due to multiple surgeries and the ensuing rehabilitation, a long-running story. Nichushkin entered Stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program in the middle of the team’s second-round playoff series and is serving a six-month suspension without pay as a consequence of violating the terms of Stage 2.
Barring an earlier-than-expected return from Landeskog, that leaves the Avalanche without the services of two of their top wingers until mid-November. As long as they remain out of the picture, they can count on an extra $13.125 million in cap space ($7 million for Landeskog and $6.125 million for Nichushkin), though they must have the room to activate them if they return to action next season.
Assuming both Landeskog and Nichushkin are out, the Avalanche are projected to have $23.22 million in space while needing to sign or promote at least five more forwards and two defensemen. If both return next season, that space dwindles to around $10 million for three forwards and two defensemen.
The Avalanche may be forced to lean on prospects from their American Hockey League (AHL) affiliate, but keeping Drouin in the fold is of utmost importance whether or not the other two forwards return.
Drouin Projected to Cash in With New Contract
Using Evolving Hockey’s free agent contract projections, we can get an estimate of what Drouin’s next deal could look like if he re-signs with the Avalanche. These projections are based on historical comparisons using variables such as age, position, production, and a player’s status as an unrestricted (UFA) or restricted (RFA) free agent.
The projections offer the most probable term (in years) and average annual value (AAV) of a free agent’s next contract though external factors could impact negotiations and bring the final terms higher or lower than anticipated.
Regardless of the final figure, Drouin is a sure bet to receive a healthy raise on the $825,000 he earned against the cap in 2023-24. While it might be on the extreme side of the curve, his next contract could approach the $5.5 million AAV he made over six years with the Montreal Canadiens prior to signing with the Avalanche.
| Term | AAV | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2.44 million | 8% |
| 2 | $3.94 million | 6% |
| 3 | $4.66 million | 28% |
| 4 | $4.78 million | 30% |
| 5 | $5.57 million | 25% |
| 6 | $5.28 million | 3% |
Evolving Hockey’s projections suggest that there is an 83% chance that Drouin will sign a contract between three to five years in length which carries an AAV between $4.66 and $5.57 million. While he is eligible to sign a seven or eight-year contract with the Avalanche, the projections assigned those outcomes come to about a collective one percent chance of coming to fruition.
The playmaker has not lived up to his lofty draft stock in part due to struggles with severe anxiety during his time in Montreal, but he looked reinvigorated during his first season in Colorado beside MacKinnon, his teammate in junior. He enjoyed a bounce-back campaign which saw him finish fifth on the team in goals (19) and assists and sat behind only MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar in points. He played over 18 minutes per game in all situations and was a regular on the power play, scoring 19 points with the man advantage (fifth among Avalanche skaters).
While his absence due to injury wasn’t the main reason for the Avalanche’s second-round playoff exit, it bears wondering how the team could have fared if his return didn’t coincide with the Nichushkin suspension. He tallied three assists and was tied for fourth among Avalanche forwards in scoring for the series, demonstrating his importance in the health of the attack.
Drouin comes in at number 15 on The Hockey Writers’ free agent rankings, but I doubt that he and the Avalanche fail to come to an agreement before July 1.
Drouin Should Be a Top-Six Staple for the Avalanche
For what it’s worth, Drouin’s agent (Allan Walsh) made comments on his podcast which made it seem like a reunion is in the cards. He lent praise to the Avalanche’s organizational operations and cited how comfortable they made his client. There’s no such thing as a guarantee in the world of sports, but where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire.
For Drouin, the decision is clear. Chase a more lucrative extension elsewhere due to the Avalanche’s salary cap crunch, or stay in an accommodating environment that has allowed him to flourish on and off the ice.
It’s difficult to fault a player for taking life-changing money to set up their families for life when an NHL career can end at any moment due to injury, but this seems like a playing situation tailor-made for the veteran forward. Can he get the best of both worlds and be paid handsomely while remaining a key figure in the Avalanche’s top-six forward group?
Data courtesy of the NHL.
