Christmas has come and gone for the Colorado Avalanche, but New Year’s Eve is just around the corner, which means that it’s time for New Year’s resolutions – everyone’s favorite activity around the holidays.
On the surface, there doesn’t appear to be much for the Avalanche to need to change heading into 2024 and the back half of the 2023-24 season. The team owns a 22-11-3 record, which is good for 47 points and first place in the Central Division, though their .653 points percentage (PTS%) places them sixth in the Western Conference.
Going a little deeper, it becomes readily apparent that the Avalanche have things to work on and resolutions to commit to if they are to make a deep playoff run come the spring. Finding ways to increase offense outside of their superstars, playing more responsible hockey with the lead, and solidifying their goaltending situation are all issues that the club must address.
Resolution #1: Find the Stars Some Offensive Support
After getting off to a slow start to the 2023-24 season (by his extremely high standards), Avalanche superstar Nathan MacKinnon has forced himself into the Hart Trophy discussion with his play over the past two months.
The 28-year-old center scored six goals and 14 points in 12 games over the first month of play, ranking third on the team in points. In 24 games since Nov. 10, MacKinnon has occupied a completely different stratosphere. He rode a now-broken 19-game point streak to the tune of 13 goals and 42 points to bring his full-season count to 19 goals and 56 points in 36 games. That clip represents a 43-goal, 127-point pace over 82 games, the latter of which approaches his career-best single-season scoring rate.
MacKinnon currently leads the NHL with 37 assists and sits two points behind Nikita Kucherov for the Art Ross Trophy lead with one more game played than the Tampa Bay Lightning’s star winger. The Russian has made his stamp on both the Hart and Art Ross races already, so it will be fascinating to see how that battle pans out in 2024.
Elsewhere, Mikko Rantanen (11th in the NHL in points) and Cale Makar (leads all defensemen in points per game) have pulled their weight on the offensive end of the ice as the remaining two-thirds of one of the league’s best trios. At this point, the issue is what is (or isn’t) behind them on the depth chart.
Other than winger Valeri Nichushkin, who has also produced at a career-best pace with 16 goals and 34 points in 34 games, the Avalanche are getting next to nothing from the rest of their lineup. Devon Toews (20 points in 36 games) and Ross Colton (17 in 35) are the next highest scorers, and Ryan Johansen (14 in 36) and Bowen Byram (12 in 36) have also struggled mightily in this department.
While the return of forechecking winger Artturi Lehkonen (eight points in 12 games at the time of his injury) will help immensely, it’ll take more than a single player to turn the tides.
The Avalanche are at the mercy of the NHL’s salary cap rules in their search for reinforcements, with the team already over the long-term injured reserve (LTIR) threshold. Any potential move will have to be made with Lehkonen and his $4.5 million cap hit in mind, making it much more likely that Johansen ($4 million) will be involved as a salary makeweight in any future deal. Calgary Flames center Elias Lindholm has been one candidate floated around as a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA), and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him donning an Avalanche sweater come the trade deadline.
Resolution #2: Stop Blowing Leads
In their first game after the brief Christmas break, the Avalanche blew a four-goal lead against the Arizona Coyotes, the latest in an unsettling trend for a team with aspirations of winning the Stanley Cup.
Despite leading the NHL in total wins after leading at the end of the first period (13), Colorado does not lead the league in win percentage when leading after one; instead, the team ranks 18th (.765) for the campaign.
The discrepancy is due to blown leads like the one against the Coyotes, where the Avalanche are tied for the most overtime losses after leading after one (three) and have four losses of any kind after leading after a period (fifth).
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The Avalanche have also allowed the sixth-most goals in the second period (43), frequently throwing away strong showings in the opening frame (seventh with 37 goals for).
I should note that for all of their issues with holding leads, the Avalanche have also scored the most goals in the third period (48), so they have the firepower to dig themselves out of trouble and stage comebacks with some regularity. That’s not a trend that’s ever been sustainable over the long term, and the team should focus on buckling down when required rather than relying on their superstars to bail them out.
Resolution #3: Start Prosvetov More Often
Of the three resolutions listed in this article, this one is the most actionable. Barring injury, there is nothing stopping head coach Jared Bednar from handing backup goaltender Ivan Prosvetov more starts as the season progresses. In fact, Alexandar Georgiev was given a short break from playing games earlier in December, so the precedent for this course of action exists.
Given how Georgiev performed in his first season with the Avalanche, that this resolution is even on the table is a worrying development. The 27-year-old goalie made the second-most starts in the league last season (62), tied for the league lead in wins (40) and ranked 10th among qualified netminders (at least 10 games played) with a .919 save percentage (SV%). By all measures, the team should have found their long-term starter.
Yet, Georgiev has struggled to replicate his fine form in 2023-24. He’s once again tied for the lead in starts (28) and owns the most wins (18), but his individual numbers are not as sparkling this time around. Among the 71 goalies to have made five appearances this season, the Avalanche’s starter ranks 35th in goals-against average (GAA), 41st in SV% (.900), and 35th in goals saved above expected (GSAx).
The Avalanche are comfortably a top-half team in the NHL by shots, chances, and expected goals against per 60 minutes in all situations, so it’s not as though the defense is playing particularly poorly in front of Georgiev. They need more than what he’s offered so far, and Prosvetov should be used to spell him far more often in the second half of the season.
Prosvetov has made 10 appearances in 2023-24 and owns a record of 4-3-1 with a 2.84 GAA (28th among qualified goalies), a .906 SV% (30th), and saved 3.4 goals above expected (34th). He’s nowhere near the NHL’s best at the position, but he’s been steadier than Colorado’s current top option and should see increased usage if for no other reason but to give Georgiev a break. He looks worn down, and the calendar hasn’t even turned to 2024.
The Avalanche are scoring the second-most goals per game in the league this season (3.61), so they have the offensive talent to overcome average or below-average goaltending. They’re not even receiving that from Georgiev, and while I have confidence that he’ll find his footing before long, there’s no reason to let Prosvetov sit inactive for as long as he has until now.
2024 Could Be a Special Year for the Avalanche
The frustrating aspect of the Avalanche’s season to date is that, despite the legitimate concerns with their play, they have the makings of a Stanley Cup-calibre roster when fully healthy.
The first- and 10th-overall teams in the overall NHL standings are separated by a mere six points, a testament to the league’s desire to promote parity with regards to postseason competition.
It’s not difficult to see the Avalanche shore up a few areas via trade or by waiting for key contributors to get healthy and separate themselves from the rest of the Western Conference contenders come playoff time. It’s important to remember that every team will experience the peaks and valleys of an 82-game season, even the one that ends up winning the Cup.
So, what do you think 2024 will bring for the Avalanche? Another postseason disappointment? A return to the top of the Stanley Cup mountain? Let me know in the comments!
Data courtesy of MoneyPuck, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.