Depending on how you view the Colorado Avalanche‘s success in recent seasons, stating that the team has returned to the top tier of Stanley Cup contenders may seem puzzling. They currently boast a record of 46-20-5, have never dropped into a wild card spot at any point this season, and have generally hovered around the top of the Western Conference standings for most of the campaign.
Yet, the team struggled to play up to its usual standard despite the positive run of results. In particular, the offseason acquisition of center Ryan Johansen fell flat as the veteran pivot looked out of his depth in the second-line center role and struggled to acclimate to the Avalanche’s high-tempo system. The front office clearly took note and chopped and changed the makeup of the roster at the trade deadline to address long-standing issues and bolster the team’s depth, particularly at forward.
In the aftermath of the deadline-day face-lift, Colorado has rocketed back to the top of the Central Division and is firmly in the discussion for the Presidents’ Trophy with less than a month to go before the start of the 2024 NHL Playoffs. Let’s dive into their recent hot stretch, and how it’s altered the team’s postseason trajectory for the better.
Avalanche in Their Best Stretch of the 2023-24 Season
Despite posting records of 6-2-0 in October and 9-3-0 in January (both good for a .750 points percentage – PTS%), the Avalanche are on track to post their best month of the season in March. They kicked off the 2023-24 season with six straight wins but have bested that streak by winning nine straight (and counting) since March 4., and own an overall record of 9-1-0 this month to go with a plus-14 goal differential.
While Nathan MacKinnon’s historic home point streak is a driving force in the team’s success, it’s no surprise that the Avalanche have hit a new gear since winger Valeri Nichushkin rejoined the club following a stint in the NHL’s Player Assistance Program.
Starting with a 2-1 overtime win over the Minnesota Wild on March 6 (the third win of the current streak), Nichushkin has scored four goals and eight points in seven games which rank third and fifth on the team over that stretch. He’s also averaged just under 21 minutes a night across all situations over that time (fifth among Avalanche skaters and third among forwards) while ranking third or fourth among the team’s forwards in average ice time at even strength, on the power play, and while shorthanded.
At the team level, it’s clear that the Avalanche have looked significantly different since the reshuffling undergone at the March 8 trade deadline. From the beginning of the season to the deadline, the team sat around the 10th-12th spot in the league by shot- and chance-share at five-on-five which, while the marking of a good team, was slightly underwhelming for a club with Stanley Cup aspirations.
In minutes played at five-on-five without any of MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, or Devon Toews, the Avalanche accounted for less than 51% of the share of shots (SF%), scoring chances (SCF%), expected goals (xGF%), and high-danger chances (HDCF%). Those results represented a significant drop-off from the stars to the depth skaters, and necessitated that moves be made at the deadline to avoid being vulnerable against deeper opponents in the postseason.
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Since reshuffling the roster by bringing in Casey Mittelstadt, Sean Walker, Yakov Trenin, and Brandon Duhaime and sending out Johansen and Bowen Byram, the team looks revitalized in that department. They have accounted for 59% of shots, 63% of expected goals, and 65% of scoring chances and high-danger opportunities at five-on-five without any of their four core pillars on the ice. As a team, they sit third or better in each of those categories league-wide, and are suddenly reminiscent of the juggernaut that won the 2022 Stanley Cup.
It’s a very small sample of only seven games and fewer than 160 minutes, but it’s an encouraging trend for a team looking to make another deep playoff run this spring and one that’s been bubbling under the surface since the turn of the calendar to 2024.
Avalanche Firing on All Cylinders Since Start of 2024
From the beginning of the 2023-24 season to Dec. 31, the Avalanche ranked eighth in the NHL with a 23-11-3 record and a .662 PTS% while boasting a plus-23 goal differential (fifth), which is nothing to scoff at in a league defined by parity.
Despite the strong start, they’ve been even better since the start of 2024. They have a record of 23-9-2 and a .706 PTS% and rank fifth in the league with a plus-32 goal differential over that span. As you can see by their month-by-month record, the Avalanche have been building in confidence in the second half of the season.
| Date | Record (PTS%) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 1 | 23-9-2 (.706) | 4th |
| Feb. 1 | 14-6-2 (.682) | Tied-5th |
| March 1 | 9-1-0 (.900) | Tied-1st |
The Avalanche are now two points away from taking the outright lead in the Presidents’ Trophy race, though one more would be good enough when accounting for standings tiebreakers. They’re tied for second with 38 wins in regulation (RW), and tied for second with 44 wins in regulation plus overtime (ROW).
The Avalanche lead the league with 26 wins in games decided by three goals or more and are tied with the Winnipeg Jets for first in games decided by two or more goals (32). Only the Boston Bruins have a better win percentage in games decided by two or more goals this season.
Beyond the goal-scoring, the Avalanche have seen an uptick in their shot and chance numbers in recent weeks as I alluded to earlier. They’ve ramped up their territorial dominance and are regularly controlling the run of play at five-on-five, which is a leading indicator of future playoff success.
| Statistic | Full Season | Jan. 1 | March 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF% | 52.7 (6) | 52.9 (8) | 55.7 (5) |
| xGF% | 52.1 (8) | 52.2 (9) | 56.3 (3) |
| SCF% | 54.4 (5) | 54.9 (4) | 58.6 (1) |
| HDCF% | 54 (4) | 54.4 (5) | 59.2 (3) |
As I mentioned in the prior section, judging the Avalanche solely based on their record and on-ice results since the beginning of the year or the month ignores a sizable sample of games. Still, their moves at the deadline and the return of key players in Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen from significant injuries means that this is essentially a brand new team, especially up front.
Recent results should be prioritized in any pre-playoff analysis and predictions, though those doing so should be wary of falling prey to recency bias. In this case, underlying shot and chance numbers (particularly at five-on-five) should be the biggest factor of consideration given that success in those areas is much more repeatable than maintaining a hot finishing streak over the long run.
Avalanche Should Be Considered Favorites for the 2024 Stanley Cup
Despite the hot run of form since the deadline, the Avalanche’s Stanley Cup hopes depend on where they finish in the division and conference standings. Instead of playing one of the Jets or the Dallas Stars, the team could likely face one of the Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators, or the battered Vegas Golden Knights if they win the Central.
Related: Avalanche’s Post-2024 NHL Trade Deadline Playoff Outlook
The Predators have been the hottest team in the NHL since Feb. 1 and the Kings haven’t been far behind, but both lack the elite star power boasted by the Avalanche. The slumbering Golden Knights could see Tomas Hertl and Mark Stone come off of long-term injured reserve (LTIR) once the playoffs begin and have one of the deepest lineups in the NHL, but are much less formidable without those two in the lineup.
The Avalanche were sluggish for most of the campaign relative to their own lofty standards, but a reconstructed roster and a return to full health (apart from captain Gabriel Landeskog) has them reaching new heights at the most important time of the season. A second Stanley Cup of the MacKinnon era is well within the realm of possibility as is attaining quasi-dynasty status.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.