With the Colorado Avalanche‘s 7-4 win against the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday afternoon (Jan. 20), the club improved its record to 30-14-3 and currently rank third in the Western Conference by points percentage (PTS%). The team has been successful relative to expectations (their .670 PTS% is slightly better than their mark of .665 last season), but one worrying trend threatens to derail what most in the organization hope is a lengthy postseason run.
Starting goalie Alexandar Georgiev – who submitted a Vezina Trophy-calibre campaign in his debut season with the Avalanche – is playing too often, and has seen his performance dip over the first half of 2023-24. The drop could just be Georgiev regressing to the previously inconsistent level he displayed over his tenure with the New York Rangers, but his high usage isn’t helping matters at this stage.
The Avalanche don’t have too much cap space to work with (they currently have $13.5 million parked on long term injured reserve) and have an arguably more pressing need at second-line center. As a result, any potential acquisition would have to either carry a cheap cap hit, have their contract expire after this season, or both.
Acquiring goaltenders at the trade deadline is always a gamble, but the risk decreases significantly if you’re recruiting for a secondary backup role, rather than pooling all your chips together to find a steady, bonafide starter.
With that in mind, let’s dive into Georgiev’s season to date, and highlight four potential trade targets who could make their way to Denver by the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline (March 8).
Georgiev Feeling Toll of Heavy Workload as Avalanche Starter
Before lamenting Georgiev’s workload this season, I should note that he wasn’t exactly being used sparingly in 2022-23. In fact, he ranked third in the league in starts (62) and fourth in shots against while posting a .919 save percentage (SV%) and saving over 18 goals above expected (GSAx), which both ranked in the top 11 among all goalies last season.
This season has been more of the same, with Georgiev once again ranking highly in starts (first with 38) and shots faced (second) as the Avalanche’s starting option. The only difference is that his individual numbers have dropped noticeably, with his .896 SV% and minus-0.63 GSAx both ranking in the bottom half of all goaltenders this season.
Georgiev had 31 games played in which he allowed three or more goals over the entire 2022-23 season. He’s already three-quarters of the way to that total with 24 such games just after the mid-way mark of the 2023-24 season. He also had 16 games of four or more goals allowed in 2022-23, but is just one game behind the total with 15 such games this season, a worrying trend for a Stanley Cup contender.
The Avalanche have managed to overcome Georgiev’s subpar displays by scoring 3.77 goals per game in all situations (second in the NHL), but it’s not a sustainable formula for playoff success.
The need for Georgiev to play so many games has been brought on by the injury troubles of former backup Pavel Francouz. The veteran netminder played 37 total games over the past three seasons due to injury and subsequent surgery, and was ruled out for the entire 2023-24 campaign before the season even started.
Francouz was an effective stop-gap for the Avalanche when called upon (.919 SV% in 73 career NHL games) and played seven games in their run to the 2022 Stanley Cup, but the latest setback likely spells the end of his tenure with the organization.
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Current backup Ivan Prosvetov was claimed off of waivers earlier this season, but has only made 11 appearances and owns a .895 SV% and a 3.16 GAA while posting about an even GSAx. He’s 25 years old and on a cheap ($775,000) expiring deal (he’s a restricted free agent this summer), so he’s unlikely to be cast aside.
23-year-old Justus Annunen is currently the Avalanche’s top goaltending prospect and has shown some promise with the American Hockey League’s Colorado Eagles (.908 SV% in 18 games). He has a single NHL appearance to his name this season, but is more likely to be the backup next season.
As is abundantly clear, the Avalanche don’t have many options. Their current backup options are either injured (Francouz) or inexperienced (Prosvetov and Annunen), and those who have played, haven’t done so with any consistency. It’s a precarious situation for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, but a move must be made to relieve their overworked starter before he burns himself out at an important time of year.
Avalanche Have Multiple Trade Targets for Backup Role
The trade market for goaltenders could prove to be ripe at the deadline, though the Avalanche will have to thread the needle of inexpensive, experienced, and playing on a team likely to be out of the playoff race by March.
The Montreal Canadiens have a logjam with Sam Montembeault, Cayden Primeau, and 33-year-old Jake Allen all on the books this season. Montembeault recently signed a multi-year extension and Primeau is on a cost-effective $890,000 deal through next season so it’s the veteran Allen – owed $3.85 million per year through the 2024-25 season – who is likely to be available.
Allen has played 15 games this season and owns a .901 SV% and a 3.49 goals-against average (GAA). Those aren’t very impressive marks on their face, but he’s also saved over three goals above expected for a Canadiens team that’s far away from contention. His cap hit would require some retention, but it could be worth it for one of the steadiest backup goalies of the past decade.
A similar predicament is playing out with the Detroit Red Wings. Presumptive starter Ville Husso is owed $4.75 million per year through the 2024-25 season and despite posting a .895 SV% in 74 games over his first two years on the team, is likely unmovable at his current cap hit.
James Reimer (.893 SV% in 13 games) has a $1.5 million cap hit and is an unrestricted free agent (UFA) this summer so there is no commitment beyond this season. His current numbers aren’t quite intriguing, but he posted a .911 SV% in 48 games with the San Jose Sharks in 2021-22.
The third name of interest with the Red Wings is journeyman Alex Lyon, owed $900,000 per year through next season. He’s stepped up admirably after Husso was sidelined with an injury, currently running with a .922 SV% and plus-5.2 GSAx in 16 games. Given how well he’s played and his cheap contract, it’s difficult to see general manager Steve Yzerman parting ways with him rather than the expiring Reimer.
The last option who fits the general criteria I set out earlier is Karel Vejmelka of the Arizona Coyotes, owed $2.725 million annually through the 2024-25 season. The 27-year-old logged 102 games for the Coyotes over the last two seasons and posted a plus-6.2 GSAx despite being peppered by a barrage of shots on a nightly basis. He’s seen his starting job stolen by Connor Ingram, but he’s still breaking even in the GSAX department. His cap hit could be a bit rich, but there aren’t very many better options available.
Avalanche Have Both Internal and External Options for Backup Role
As I’ve laid out, the Avalanche have a number of options to choose from when it comes to their backup goaltender. Some names fit better than others given Colorado’s salary cap situation, but there’s no excuse to be forcing Georgiev to play so many games, especially when he’s shown signs of fatigue at times this season. Finding success in the regular season is important to be sure, but it means little if the key parts of the squad are crumbling come the spring.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey and the NHL.