The unfortunate reality of the NHL’s stagnant salary cap is that apart from the top tier of free agents, few others are likely to receive offers with significant salary or term. This has left a number of otherwise capable players scrambling to claim what’s left over and likely settling for one-year deals with an eye towards the 2024 offseason, during which the league’s cap ceiling is projected to increase by $4 million.
For cap-strapped teams like the Colorado Avalanche, these players represent potential bargains as they look to bolster their rosters at affordable prices. What the Avalanche can offer that most of the others in their position can’t is an opportunity to play alongside some of the NHL’s top offensive players in Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Cale Makar. If all goes well, those players will have padded their scoring totals and should fashion a stronger argument for demanding a long-term deal.
Related: 2023 NHL Free Agency Tracker
With Gabriel Landeskog eligible for long-term injured reserve (LTIR) for the entire 2023-24 season, the Avalanche currently has about $6.8 million in cap space. They still have to sign the newly-acquired Ross Colton and at least one other forward, though one of the team’s prospects could leap instead next season.
In any case, let’s dive into five players who could join them on a cheap, short-term assignment and potentially parlay their play into a more lucrative extension next summer.
Josh Bailey, Right Wing/Left Wing/Center
2022-23 Statistics: 64 Games Played (GP) – 8 Goals (G) – 17 Assists (A) – 25 Points (PTS) – 15:08 Average Time on ice (ATOI)
Josh Bailey finds himself without a contract for the 2023-24 season after being traded by the New York Islanders to the Chicago Blackhawks prior to the 2023 NHL Draft and being promptly bought out. It was an abrupt end to an understated tenure on Long Island, and the 33-year-old veteran forward is now an unrestricted free agent (UFA) for the first time in his career as the Islanders look to retool.
Even though Bailey’s 25 points in 64 games represent his lowest single-season total since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, he still has a lot to give at the right price point (no more than $1 million) and with appropriate usage. According to Corey Sznajder’s tracking data, Bailey has not been an active or effective puck carrier in terms of completing zone entries with or without possession for several seasons. The first task would be to insulate him with a strong puck carrier, of which the Avalanche have a few (Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Andrew Cogliano among potential linemates).
Bailey’s one skill that remains above league average is his passing. In 2022-23, he ranked slightly above average in terms of generating shot assists (the final pass before a shot) but near the NHL’s top quartile by chance assists (the final pass before a scoring chance). He has trouble getting the puck to the offensive zone, but if paired with someone who can, he can utilize his strong in-zone passing to create a reliable stream of offence.
Bailey has also compiled 16 goals and 50 points in 76 career playoff games, including eight goals and 33 points in 41 games during the Islanders’ runs to the 2020 and 2021 Conference Final. He’s got postseason experience and would fit in seamlessly with an Avalanche team that has won the third-most games (43) since making their return to the playoffs in 2018.
If Bailey values the chance to compete for a Stanley Cup more highly than maximizing his career earnings, the Avalanche could lure him in at a reduced cap commitment on a short-term basis.
Danton Heinen, Left Wing/Right Wing
2022-23 Statistics: 65 GP – 8 G – 14 A – 22 PTS – 10:45 ATOI
Utility forward Danton Heinen is the prototypical bottom-six player but looks to be a casualty of new general manager Kyle Dubas’ desire to rebuild the Pittsburgh Penguins’ forward group depth. He plays about 10 minutes a night, can chip in some offense in brief stints, and perform in spot duty on the penalty kill. Interestingly enough, the 27-year-old’s strengths are the inverse of Bailey’s and together could form an intriguing line in the Avalanche’s bottom six.
Heinen ranked 75th among all forwards in individual expected goals per-60 minutes (ixG/60) at 5-on-5 last season. Sznajder’s data also suggests that he is adept at creating opportunities from in close as he ranks fairly high in rebound shots per-60 and shots taken off of the cycle.
Beyond that, Heinen is an average passer and can move the puck in transition in a pinch, but his best attribute is his forechecking. Over the past two seasons, he has graded out as a top-quartile player in terms of the volume of pressure attempts and one of the best at recovering dump-ins and regaining possession for his team deep in the opponents’ zone.
Heinen scored 18 goals as recently as the 2021-22 season, so the Avalanche could be better off making a bet on a player with some offensive upside, rather than a grinder meant to bring play to a halt. He is coming off a pair of one-year contracts worth no more than $1.1 million, so he shouldn’t break the bank and could be the difference in a tight playoff series where a strong depth performance can tip the scales in a series.
Denis Gurianov, Right Wing/Left Wing
2022-23 Statistics: 64 GP – 7 G – 10 A – 17 PTS – 13:12 ATOI
It’s eerie to note how many similarities are shared between the Avalanche’s Nichushkin and unsigned free-agent forward Denis Gurianov. Like his counterpart, Gurianov struggled to deliver on his draft pedigree (chosen 12th overall in the 2015 Draft) which pushed the Dallas Stars to trade him to the Montreal Canadiens last season.
Although Gurianov might never earn a contract in the same realm as Nichushkin’s recent extension, he’s also a big, shoot-first winger who could use a change of scenery. As part of a continued effort to pivot towards the organization’s youth, the Canadiens declined to qualify him as a pending restricted free agent (RFA).
Gurianov has struggled to replicate the success of his 2019-20 season, in which he scored 29 goals and 46 points across 91 regular-season and playoff games as the Stars reached the 2020 Stanley Cup Final. He hasn’t eclipsed 12 goals in a single season since then and has seen his ATOI drop for two consecutive campaigns.
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Among forwards to have played at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5 since the start of 2020-21, Gurianov ranks 120th in shots per-60 (SH/60) but has struggled to turn those shots into more dangerous chances. He’s performed better on the power play, creating rebound chances at the 71st highest rate among qualified forwards (100 powerplay minutes) in that same time frame, but those same finishing woes have followed him on the man advantage.
Gurianov is also an effective forechecker and puck carrier, ranking above league-average in recovered dump-ins and controlled zone entries (with possession of the puck) per-60 for each of the past three seasons.
At this rate, committing to anything beyond a discounted one- or two-year deal with Gurianov is a gamble. He just turned 26 and has seemingly regressed each season since his breakout performance in the 2020 Playoffs. If his next team tempers its expectations and deploys him accordingly, there is a useful player in there capable of rediscovering his scoring touch if placed in the right situation.
Tomas Tatar, Left Wing/Right Wing
2022-23 Statistics: 82 GP – 20 G – 28 A – 48 PTS – 15:07 ATOI
There may not be a more polarizing player in free agency than 32-year-old winger Tomas Tatar. He’s scored at a 21-goal, 52-point pace since the start of the 2018-19 season, but has only tallied four points in 27 playoff games over that time. Few other players have demonstrated such a vast discrepancy in regular-season and postseason production, and it’s likely made would-be contenders wary of bringing him into the fold at any meaningful term or cap hit. The New Jersey Devils chose to extend Timo Meier and acquire Tyler Toffoli instead, leaving no room for Tatar to return.
Though that playoff divide is worrying, Tatar is the perfect buy-low candidate for teams, such as the Avalanche. According to Sznajder’s data, the veteran forward ranked in the top quartile of all forwards in terms of shots, shot assists, chances, chance assists, and high-danger assists at 5-on-5 this past season. He did so while being an above-average puck transporter and created offence both off the rush and through in-zone pressure.
Those numbers could be juiced by playing in a high-octane Devils attack, but the Avalanche are one of the few teams capable of playing at a similar pace to the young Devils. He can be used more frequently on the power play and see less difficult competition on the third line, putting less pressure on his defensive warts. A partnership between him and the shoot-first Colton is a natural one and could see the Avalanche roll out one of the most dominant third lines in the league.
Tatar’s contract carried a $4.5 million AAV for the past two seasons, so the Avalanche can’t afford anything near that for 2023-24. If he views the Avalanche as the perfect spot to rehabilitate his image and pad his scoring totals with an eye towards a more favourable cap environment next summer, he could be one of the best one-year bargains. With Rantanen Bowen Byram and Devon Toews needing new deals at some point in the next two offseasons, inking a short-term deal could be a beneficial arrangement for both parties.
Caleb Jones, Defenseman
2022-23 Statistics: 73 GP – 4 G – 12 A – 16 PTS – 19:13 ATOI
Though the Avalanche appear set on the blue line with seven NHL-caliber defensemen under contract, 26-year-old Caleb Jones could unseat Jack Johnson and Kurtis MacDermid for a spot on the bottom pair. He was saddled with the unfortunate task of playing top-four minutes for a team more interested in the draft lottery, but put up respectable results considering the environment around him at 5-on-5.
Sznajder’s data depicts Jones as an above-average generator of zone exits after retrieving the puck in his own zone and having posted one of the best denial rates in terms of opposing zone entry attempts and chances off of those attempts. There is no reason he should (or would) play near the 16 minutes at 5-on-5 or 19 minutes in all situations that he did last season. That he performed admirably under such circumstances makes him the ideal bottom-pair defender.
Among all defenders to play at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, Jones posted sparkling relative numbers which compare how his team performed with him on the ice compared to when he sat. The Blackhawks earned 6.5% more of the shot-share (seventh), 2.8% of the scoring chances (51st), and 2.4% of the high-danger chances (62nd) when he hit the ice. Some of that is the team being so poor in all other areas, but Jones did his part.
Like the other names on this list, Jones has an opportunity to audition for a longer deal next summer when the cap rises. Teams may be put off by his numbers last season, but they are understandable given that the Blackhawks were in full-rebuild mode. The Avalanche’s collection of depth defensemen could get bloated quickly, but Jones offers something that those currently on the roster do not – namely mobility and poise with the puck.
Bargains Remain Among NHL’s Unsigned Free Agents
Although the previous five players represent the cream of the remaining crop, the Avalanche can pick from a number of inexpensive options as they look to mount their assault on the 2024 Stanley Cup. Here are five honourable mentions who could also find their way to Colorado this offseason:
- Pius Suter, Center/Left Wing (79 GP – 14 G – 10 A – 24 PTS – 14:04 ATOI)
- Jesper Boqvist, Center/Left Wing/Right Wing (70 GP – 10 G – 11 A – 21 PTS – 11:36 ATOI)
- Ethan Bear, Defenseman (61 GP – 3 G – 13 A – 16 PTS – 18:32 ATOI)
- Jesse Puljujarvi, Right Wing (75 GP – 5 G – 11 A – 16 PTS – 12:14 ATOI)
- Maxime Comtois, Left Wing (64 GP – 9 G – 10 A – 19 PTS – 13:49 ATOI)
If the Avalanche prefer to focus on elevating their own prospects into the NHL, the likes of Jean-Luc Foudy and Ben Meyers (still unsigned) are the leading candidates for a fourth-line role.
Regardless of who ends up taking that final slot, the front office addressed their top-six center and forward depth concerns and can now focus on making low-risk bets. If there’s any organization that has reaped the rewards of such gambles, it is the Avalanche.
Data courtesy of AllThreeZones, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.