As we get closer to the end of the 2023-24 postseason — by the way, congrats to the Edmonton Oilers for extending the series against the Florida Panthers and at least making it interesting — fans of the Chicago Blackhawks and those who cover the team are looking to July 1 to see who is available in free agency.
The Blackhawks could have much more than $30 million in cap space, and while the team is still in rebuild mode, many are hoping Chicago tries to bring in talented players that can help them improve from the bottom-feeder they’ve been the last few seasons.
Related: Jake Guentzel-to-Blackhawks Free Agency Prediction Highlights Team’s Needs
While there’s plenty of highly-skilled forwards entering the market this summer, most notably Sam Reinhart, Jake Guentzel, Jonathan Marchessault and more, one player I believe could be available for the Blackhawks is Elias Lindholm.
The Swedish forward turns 30 next season, and while he’ll likely be looking for a long-term deal that will pay him $7 million-plus for the next few years, I can see a path for him to sign a lucrative short-term deal with a Blackhawks group that’s looking to improve their top-six forward group.
Let’s look at how this could happen.
Reports Say Lindholm Will Likely Leave Canucks
On the June 10 episode of The Jeff Marek Show, Sportsnet hockey insider Elliotte Friedman said the Canucks had a contract in mind for the Swedish forward, but what he could make on the open market might be too rich for them.
Related: Canucks Should Sign Stephenson or Monahan to Replace Lindholm
“We talked about how it sounded like the Canucks were willing to go (seven years at $7 million average annual value) for Lindholm, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen,” Friedman said. “So the Canucks are looking at this like: we’re probably not going to be able to keep Lindholm, what is our next option?”
In case you were wondering, this statement by Friedman was where I got the $7-million figure I mentioned earlier. While I can appreciate that Lindholm, who was taken fifth overall in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft by the Carolina Hurricanes, and his agents are looking for an expensive contract now that he’s an unrestricted free agent (UFA), I have a hard time believing teams will be willing to sign him to a long-term deal — for that much money — for a player who had his worst offensive season in six years.
Too often in professional sports, when we think of available free agents, we think of their most productive seasons. When Lindholm’s name comes up on the network panels leading up to July 1, the footage that will be playing under the analysts’ voices will be from his time with the Calgary Flames, showing a handful of the 42 goals he scored with the club in 2021-22, or maybe some of the 42 assists he contributed in 2022-23.
While there’s no doubting he’s had some highly-productive seasons, this past season, his last full one in his 20s, represented a downturn. As it became more and more clear that the Flames were not going to compete for a playoff spot, and that there wasn’t a path for the team to re-sign the pending UFA, the team dealt him to their divisional rival in the Canucks for forward Andrei Kuzmenko, prospects Hunter Brzustewicz, Joni Jurmo, a first-round and conditional fourth-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft.
Before the trade, Lindholm was on a 53-point pace, the lowest total of his career over a full season since 2017-18 when he was still with the Hurricanes. After the trade, that dropped to a 37-point pace, and after scoring twice in his first game with the club, he only scored four more times in his remaining 25 games. Canucks’ head coach Rick Tocchet wasn’t afraid to put Lindholm down lower and lower in the lineup, and at one point in early March, he averaged less than 15 minutes per game over a six-game span.
I can give credit to the 29-year-old, too, as his game appeared to step up in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, helping the Canucks go to seven games against an Oilers squad that’s just two wins away from lifting Lord Stanley’s trophy. His 10 points in 13 games, including five points in the final five games of the Canucks/Oilers series, is likely what’s caused teams to think he’s worth more than $7 million per season, and his ability to play a grinder’s game with a sprinkle of skill makes him attractive in free agency.
However, I feel like it will be the 75 regular-season games before the post-season that may scare some teams away from a long-term deal. That’s where the Blackhawks come in.
GM Kyle Davidson Needs to Add Skill on July 1
There’s many things this rebuilding Blackhawks squad needs to add for them to get better, but their top priority has to be surrounding 2023 first-overall pick Connor Bedard with more skill. The 18-year-old (he’s STILL 18, at least until July 17) led Chicago in all offensive categories with 22 goals and 39 assists for 61 points during his rookie season, a feat all the more impressive when you consider he only played 68 games after missing time with a broken jaw, and that the closest teammate to him in points was Philipp Kurashev, who had 54 points in 75 games.
The point is, Bedard is damn good, but he needs to be surrounded with more talent in the Blackhawks’ top-six forward group. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun wrote on June 12 that Blackhawks’ General Manager Kyle Davidson is making calls around the league, and “it’s clear from what we’re hearing from other front offices that he’s looking around for a top-six forward and perhaps a middle-six forward, too.” (Pierre LeBrun, ‘NHL rumblings: Trade talk heats up on Laine, Necas, Ehlers and more, plus latest on Cooper-Canada,’ The Athletic 6/12/24)
Related: Chicago Blackhawks Summer Trade Targets: Yae or Nay?
That’s no surprise, and while the team does have plenty of cap space, they likely don’t want to commit to long-term deals that will be anchors in the fifth, sixth and seventh seasons of the contracts. This is where I think Lindholm and the Blackhawks have a potential fit.
I may be proven wrong on July 1, but I really have a hard time believing a team will pay Lindholm in the $7 to $8 million per year range on a long-term contract. Players seldom get better with time, and while he had flashes of skill in 2023-24, it’s clear he’s not the 70-, 80-point player he was during his time in Calgary.
I do think, however, he can continue to produce at a 50- or 60-point pace, and his strong two-way game combined with some desperately-needed secondary scoring can help Chicago accumulate a few more wins in 2024-25. That doesn’t mean committing to a six- or seven-year deal that he’ll be looking for, but if the dust settles on July 1 and he hasn’t been inked to that type of deal, that’s where the Blackhawks can take advantage.
Players and their agents aren’t afraid to sign one- or two-year deals to with a high AAV as a sort of “show me” contract, proving to the league that they’re worth the money they asked for the previous year (I wrote a column earlier this month outlining how that describes Max Domi). That kind of deal could prove valuable to both Lindholm and the Blackhawks, where if he can’t get the number he’s looking for with the other teams in the league, Chicago could pay him between $7 and $8 million on a one- or two-year deal.
While this team needs help on the wing, giving Lindholm second-line responsibilities and some power-play time with Bedard — as well as relieving some of the defensive responsibilities that were assigned to Bedard throughout his rookie season — could be one of the savviest moves Davidson makes this offseason.
Again, I would be surprised if Lindholm gets the expensive, long-term deal he’s looking for, but then again, this is the NHL. Former league executive Brian Burke once told reporters during free agency in 2011: “I think our group (of general managers) make more mistakes July 1 than we do the rest of the year all together.” He’s right, which is why we could see someone pay Lindholm $8 million per season until 2031.
But if no one bites and desperation starts to seep in, there’s a market for the Blackhawks to step up and offer a lot of money for one or two years to get a “hired gun,” a timeframe where he could prove to the rest of the league he is worth investing in long term.
